Product name: Hydrochloric acid

Latest price (March 11th): 100 yuan/ton

On March 11th, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid increased significantly, with a price increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to March 10th, an increase of 5.26%, and a year-on-year decrease of 43.18%. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently seen a significant increase, with increased cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market is fluctuating and rising, and downstream purchasing willingness is good. Duo Zhong Li is good, but the price of hydrochloric acid has surged.

The domestic hydrochloric acid market prices may fluctuate and rise in the future, with an average market price of around 110 yuan/ton.

The domestic fluorite price trend has remained stable this week, with an average price of 3350 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, which is the same as the price of 3350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and an increase of 13.56% year-on-year.

Supply side: Enterprises gradually resume work, fluorite market temporarily stable

The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises has slightly increased. On the one hand, upstream mining is tight, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. On the other hand, in terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are conducting safety hazard inspections. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has restricted their operation. On the other hand, enterprises are gradually resuming work during the Spring Festival holiday, and the supply of fluorite has increased. The price trend of fluorite is temporarily stable.

On the demand side: stable market for hydrofluoric acid, rising refrigerant prices

The domestic price trend of hydrofluoric acid has remained stable this week, with mainstream prices of 9800-10200 yuan/ton negotiated in various regions. The hydrofluoric acid market has remained stable this week, with some units still in shutdown. There has been little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, and manufacturers have fewer orders for hydrofluoric acid. The low price of hydrofluoric acid is bearish for the domestic fluorite market, and some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase on demand. The domestic fluorite market is temporarily stable.

The market for some downstream refrigerant products has risen, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. Refrigerant R22 manufacturers have raised their factory prices due to quota issues, and distributors have been more active in purchasing. The price trend of R22 has increased, with the mainstream of negotiations ranging from 25000 to 27000 yuan/ton. The quota cycle in the refrigerant market has begun, and it is difficult for enterprises to change their reluctance to sell. The quota for R134a in China is relatively tight, and some manufacturers have raised their factory prices. Currently, the market quotation for R134a refrigerant is mostly in the range of 31000-33000 yuan/ton. The overall transaction in the refrigerant industry is still good, but the production in the refrigerant industry remains sluggish, and the price trend of fluorite is temporarily stable.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the driving force of demand in new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has remained stable.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. In addition, the trend of refrigerant product prices has increased, and demand has improved. However, as fluorite enterprises continue to resume work and production, the supply has increased. In addition, the hydrofluoric acid market has not improved, and Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that there is still resistance to the price increase of fluorite in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5800 yuan/ton on March 1st, and the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5800 yuan/ton on March 7th. The price of chlorinated paraffin remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin remained stable this week. This week, the price of raw material liquid chlorine has increased, while the price of raw material liquid wax has first increased and then decreased, providing good cost support. Downstream on-demand procurement, market supply and demand balance, and acceptable transaction atmosphere. Chlorinated paraffin manufacturers maintain stable prices for shipments, with detailed discussions on actual orders. As of March 7th, the ex factory price of 52 environmentally friendly chlorinated paraffins in Anhui region is about 6300 yuan/ton, and the market price of 52 national standard chlorinated paraffins in Shandong region is about 5600-5800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax increased first and then decreased this week. The market demand is stable, and liquid wax fluctuates with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has continued to rise this week. The market transaction atmosphere is still good, and downstream demand for replenishment is maintained, with actual order negotiations being the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s chlorinated paraffin analyst believes that the chlorinated paraffin market has been running steadily in recent days. The market demand needs to be improved, and many companies in the industry are in urgent need of restocking, so cautious observation is the main approach. Under cost support, it is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will steadily increase in the short term.

Since March, the market for epichlorohydrin has been operating steadily. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 6th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 8150.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price on March 1st.

Price influencing factors:

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price for propylene on March 5th was 6918.25, an increase of 0.69% compared to March 1st (6870.75). Recently, the price of propylene raw material has fluctuated and increased, while the price of glycerol raw material has remained relatively stable. The cost is still supported by the market for epichlorohydrin.

Supply and demand side: The production capacity utilization rate of the supply side industry is around 60%, and the demand side performs poorly. Downstream consumers mainly consume inventory raw materials, and the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement is not high. Small orders require follow-up at a low price, and actual transactions are limited. The mentality of the industry is under pressure, and the epoxy chloropropane market is quiet and optimistic.

Main downstream epoxy resin: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price of epoxy resin on March 5th was 13300.00, a decrease of 0.25% compared to March 1st (13333.33), which lacks support for the epoxy chloropropane market.

Analysts from Business Society believe that short-term demand is still dragging the market, and the trading atmosphere in the market is weak. Holders are actively shipping, and it is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin may be weak in the short term. More attention should still be paid to market news guidance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic 1 # tin ingot market fluctuated in February 2024. The average price in the domestic market was 217060 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 217210 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.07%.

On February 28th, the base metal index was 1164 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.97% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 81.31% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On February 28th, the tin commodity index was 110.65, an increase of 0.67 points from yesterday, a decrease of 41.05% from the highest point in the cycle of 187.70 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 158.17% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 9th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The monthly K-bar chart shows significant fluctuations in tin prices. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin market has experienced more recent declines and less recent gains.

The tin market in February fell before the holiday and then rose, with a range of fluctuations after the holiday. At the beginning of February, the social inventory of tin continued to accumulate, coupled with downstream enterprises basically ending replenishment near the Spring Festival, resulting in sluggish trading in the spot market and dragging down the trend of the futures market. Shanghai tin fell, and on the night of the 7th, due to the impact of the US dollar’s decline, Lunxi rose 1.39%, driving the opening of Shanghai tin to rise on the 7th. The tin market showed a “V” – shaped trend before the holiday. After the holiday, the market has gradually resumed work, but the downstream has still digested pre holiday inventory, resulting in weak fluctuations in the spot market, fewer inquiries entering the market, and relatively stable macro level. The futures market has relatively small fluctuations, and the post holiday market is mainly characterized by range fluctuations.

On the supply side, the progress of RKAB mines in Indonesia is slow, and imports from Wa State are still in the recovery stage. In the near future, another major importing country, Indonesia, will hold presidential elections, and the supply of tin mines remains tight due to the above news. In terms of demand, downstream demand has performed well recently. In January, welding material companies started production higher, and the overall market mentality has improved. After the holiday, downstream related companies have actively resumed work, and the current production has steadily rebounded. By the end of the month, the market holiday atmosphere has gradually faded, but downstream enterprise restocking demand is still low, and it will take time to recover to pre holiday levels. Overall, the upstream and downstream are actively resuming work, and it will still take some time to resume normal production. The tight supply at the mining end has boosted market sentiment, but due to the drag of high domestic inventory, the market’s upward space is limited. As enterprises gradually resume normal production and the market atmosphere will improve to a certain extent, the short-term market trend is mainly stable and volatile

Related data:

According to the latest data released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS), the global refined tin production in December 2023 was 31900 tons, and the consumption was 32200 tons. The overall performance in December was a supply shortage of 0300 tons. The global tin ore production in December 2023 was 29400 tons. In 2023, the global refined tin production was 353900 tons, with a consumption of 344800 tons. The overall performance in 2023 was an oversupply of 9000 tons. The global tin ore production in 2023 is 309700 tons.

On February 6, 2024, the International Trade Commission (ITC) of the United States voted to make a final anti-dumping and negative industrial injury ruling on tin plate (Tin Mill Products) imported from Canada, China, and Germany, as well as a final anti-dumping and negative industrial injury ruling on tin plate imported from China, The final ruling of the US Department of Commerce states that the products involved in dumping and subsidy practices have not caused substantial harm or threatened substantial harm to domestic industries in the United States. According to the negative final ruling of the US International Trade Commission, the US Department of Commerce will not issue anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders on tinplate imported from the aforementioned countries. At the same time, the International Trade Commission of the United States ruled that the dumping margin of the products involved in South Korea could be ignored and voted to terminate the anti-dumping investigation against South Korea.