Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and some spot prices have been slightly adjusted. According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of December 15th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14375 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.61% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has been fluctuating recently. The increase in pure benzene prices this week has boosted the cost support for caprolactam. Downstream procurement expectations are expected to improve due to the impact of production expansion. However, some production line equipment maintenance in the early stage of the industry has returned, and market supply has increased, so the long short game on the market continues. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will shift from weak consolidation to strong consolidation in the short term.

In terms of supply:

This week, there was a narrow adjustment in the load of PA6 production enterprises, with an average operating rate of around 75% in the interval. The market supply has remained almost unchanged compared to the previous period, and there is ample supply of goods on the market. The inventory level is still not high, and there is no significant increase in supplier pressure, which still provides support for PA6 spot goods.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has fluctuated slightly and remained stable, with an average load position of around 68% and 81%, respectively. The willingness of terminal enterprises to stock up is average, and their overall acceptance of high priced goods is not good. Trading is concentrated near maintaining production demand, with replenishment prices mostly centered around the low-end, and overall support for the demand side of PA6 slicing is average.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the PA6 market stabilized and saw a narrow rise. The price of caprolactam fluctuated slightly, while the cost support for PA6 was average. The load of domestic polymerization plants is almost horizontal, and the inventory position remains low. The demand side is cautious in purchasing goods, and market trading tends towards the low-end. It is expected that the supply of goods in the future may increase due to new production facilities, and the PA6 market may continue to consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently risen. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1170.00 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1193.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.99%. The current price has decreased by 5.29% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has slightly increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has been mainly fluctuating slightly, with an increase this week. As of December 14th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1100-1280 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol has shown an upward trend, but downstream panel factories have poor demand, and market trading sentiment is average. Formaldehyde manufacturers are shipping normally, and the market is slightly rising with costs.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is on the rise, while downstream acetic acid: The demand for acetic acid is increasing; Downstream dimethyl ether: demand for dimethyl ether may increase; Downstream chlorides: Increased demand for chlorides; Downstream formaldehyde: Increased demand for formaldehyde; Downstream MTBE: As some manufacturers reduce their operating load, the demand for MTBE will decrease. The demand for methanol is mixed.

Recently, there has been an upward trend in the methanol market, with good cost support. Downstream panel factories have had poor operating rates due to environmental impact, and formaldehyde market transactions are average. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe predict that formaldehyde prices in Shandong will mainly fluctuate and rise in the near future.

Recently (12.1-12.12), the trichloromethane market has been weakly consolidating. According to data from Business Society, as of December 12th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.23% from 2066 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have decreased, and the cost center of trichloromethane has shifted downwards; In addition, the overall downstream demand is weak with only a small amount of hard demand support, and transactions in the trichloromethane market are rare, resulting in lower merchant quotes.

Recently (12.1-12.12), domestic methane chloride production has fluctuated narrowly.

Recently (12.1-12.12), the prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have decreased, and the cost center of trichloromethane has decreased. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 12th, the spot price of methanol was 2450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.20% from the beginning of the month’s 2505 yuan/ton. As of December 12th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 200 yuan/ton, which continues to decline compared to the previous period.

In the off-season, there is only a small amount of demand for refrigerants at the terminal. Currently, the delivery price of refrigerant R22 is weak and stable, with low operating costs. The support for demand for trichloromethane is weak. In 2023, the total production quota for R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons, and overall support for the demand for trichloromethane will weaken in the medium to long term.

The methane chloride data analyst from Business Society believes that a small amount of rigid demand has weak support for trichloromethane, but cost support has weakened, and it is expected that the trichloromethane market will be weak and consolidate in the later stage.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of boric acid remained stable in December. As of December 12th, the average price of boric acid in the domestic market was 7462.50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month, and decreased by 7.87% from the average market price of 8100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At present, domestic boric acid traders offer prices ranging from 7000 to 7800 yuan/ton (actual transaction prices for different brands, specifications, and products are mainly negotiated).

At present, the foreign quotation for imported goods is concentrated between 7500-8000 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated). According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average market price of imported boric acid is 7862.5 yuan/ton, which is 0.63% lower than the average market price of 7912.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride remained stable this week, with a price of 3080.00 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 21.28%. On December 10th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 97.78, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 44.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 67.86% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-03-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

The prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have remained stable this week.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market has stabilized at a high level this week, with a price of 7550.00 yuan/ton. The weekend price fell by 18.16% year-on-year. This week, the market price of potassium nitrate stabilized at a high level, with a price of 5475.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price decreased by 6.81% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride is consolidating at a high level, and downstream customers have average demand for potassium chloride.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to late December, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall narrowly, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride is consolidating at a high level, with average downstream demand and mainly focused on purchasing for immediate needs. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.