1、 Price trend

The downstream market demand is sluggish, and the pressure on potassium chloride to sell has increased. This week, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has dropped significantly. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of potassium chloride has dropped from 2600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2462.5 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 5.29% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.41%.

2、 Market analysis

According to data statistics, the final price of 60% potassium in Qinghai over the weekend is around 2300-2400 yuan/ton, with limited new transactions. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is around 2300 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port is around 2400-2500 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2200 yuan/ton. During the week, the prices of mainstream potassium chloride distributors decreased slightly. Anhui Badou Weekend’s potassium chloride distributor quoted 2350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe Weekend Potassium Chloride Distribution quoted 2400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market has stabilized at a low level this week, with a price of 7300 yuan/ton. The weekend price fell by 19.78% year-on-year. This week, the market price of potassium nitrate stabilized at a low level, with a price of 5087.50 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price decreased by 13.77% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride continues to be sluggish, with manufacturers mainly purchasing on demand.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In late March, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall narrowly, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of salt lakes and Zangge potassium chloride are temporarily stable, but new transactions are limited. The downstream market for potassium chloride continues to decline, with weakened downstream demand and a focus on essential procurement. Recently, international potassium fertilizer has also shown a weak trend. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of March 15th, the average price of industrial grade premium cyclohexane in China was 7033.33 yuan/ton. This week, the price of cyclohexane has remained stable, with no significant changes compared to the same period last week. Currently, the support for raw material cost prices is insufficient, and there are not enough favorable factors. The cyclohexane market is mainly stable in the short term.

This week, the market price of cyclohexane remained stable, with the mainstream price currently around 7000 yuan/ton. The support for raw material costs is insufficient, and the support for cyclohexane market costs is weak. The downstream negotiation atmosphere is cold, and the trading atmosphere is cold. Currently, there are not many inquiries on the market, mainly small orders, and the cyclohexane market is slowly consuming inventory.

Chemical index: On March 14th, the chemical index was 860 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 38.57% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 43.81% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Business Society’s cyclohexane analyst believes that in the short term, the cyclohexane market is mainly stable, with weak cost support and unclear upward momentum.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of March 14, 2024, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 16220 yuan/ton, which was basically unchanged compared to March 10. Compared with February 29 (organic silicon DMC reference was 15360 yuan/ton), the price increased by 860 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.60%.

From the testing chart of organic silicon DMC product data from Business Society, it can be seen that starting from late February, the domestic organic silicon DMC market has experienced a broad upward trend, with the organic silicon DMC rising all the way into early March. As of March 10th, the overall increase in domestic organic silicon DMC after the Spring Festival exceeded 8%, and the high-end price of organic silicon DMC has also broken through the 17000 yuan/ton mark.

Entering this week, at the beginning of the week, the domestic organic silicon DMC market is generally in a trend of consolidation after rising, with a relatively calm overall performance and little price fluctuation, with stable operation as the main focus. During the week, Shandong’s large organic silicon DMC remained stable at 16100 yuan/ton. It was rumored that there was a second weak opening, with a transaction of 15800 yuan/ton orders, but a new opening returned to 16100 yuan/ton. The price of organic silicon DMC from leading companies has also remained stable, remaining strong around 17000 yuan/ton. Other factories are also stabilizing the previous market trend. During the weekend, the opening price of Shandong’s large organic silicon DMC was once again lowered to 15800 yuan/ton, driving the overall focus of the organic silicon DMC market to move downwards and widening the gap between high and low prices on the market. At present, there is a slight wait-and-see sentiment in the organic silicon DMC market. As of March 14th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference is around 15800-17000 yuan/ton.

At present, the downstream demand for organic silicon DMC is generally shifting towards calmness, and the buying atmosphere in the early stage is gradually calming down. The downstream market is mainly focused on rigid demand procurement while digesting raw materials. The overall pressure on the supply side of organic silicon DMC is still relatively low, and the market is supported by pre orders. However, the price adjustments of major manufacturers have injected anxiety into the market, and the overall wait-and-see atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is becoming stronger.

Prediction of the future trend of organic silicon DMC market

At present, the trading atmosphere of organic silicon DMC on the market is mild, and the mentality of chasing gains on the market is slowing down. The overall operating rate of organic silicon DMC is still high, and some operators still have expectations for the traditional peak season of the market. According to the organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and specific attention should be paid to factors such as market operating conditions and changes in production capacity.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has been stable and rising, with most spot prices rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 13th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13675 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+1.30% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has slightly increased, and it can be seen from the above chart that the formaldehyde market is mainly characterized by slight fluctuations. The price of raw material methanol is relatively stable, and the cost support is still acceptable. Downstream demand is gradually recovering, and formaldehyde manufacturers are shipping normally. The market has slightly rebounded, and the support for POM is still acceptable.

In terms of supply:

Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has been generally high, with an overall load rate of around 89%. However, most companies have low inventory positions and have not experienced any accumulation of inventory. There is an expected increase in POM production in the future, but overall, the impact on supply pressure is limited, and the support for POM spot on the supply side is relatively strong.

In terms of demand:

Recently, the stocking situation of downstream POM enterprises in China has been average, and most of them just need to pick up the goods. In addition, due to the high price of POM, buyers have a certain degree of resistance. Overall, the demand side entry is lagging behind, and the support for POM spot prices is limited.

Future Market Forecast

In the first half of March, the POM market remained stable with some gains. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has slightly increased at a high level, and the inventory position of enterprises is relatively low. The supply side pressure has not yet appeared, and the pricing operation of manufacturers tends to be biased towards high prices. Downstream enterprises are limited in purchasing due to high load and POM prices, resulting in delayed stock preparation follow-up. It is expected that the POM market will enter a narrow consolidation market in the future.

The price of ortho xylene temporarily stabilized in March

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of March 12th, the price of ortho xylene was 8100 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho xylene on March 1st, which was 8100 yuan/ton. In March, crude oil prices stabilized strongly, naphtha prices rose, mixed xylene fluctuated and fell, and the cost of ortho xylene decreased; The price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, resulting in weak demand for ortho xylene and a decrease in costs. The price of ortho xylene has remained weak and stable this week.

The price of mixed xylene raw materials fluctuates and falls

According to the mixed xylene commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of March 12th, the quoted price of mixed xylene was 7380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54% from the price of mixed xylene on March 1st, which was 7420 yuan/ton. In March, crude oil prices stabilized strongly, while naphtha prices fluctuated and rose. The cost of mixed xylene supported the increase in port mixed xylene inventories, resulting in poor demand growth for mixed xylene. The price of mixed xylene fluctuated and fell, while the cost of adjacent benzene supported the decrease.

Downstream prices of phthalic anhydride fluctuate and fall

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Business Society, as of March 12th, the quoted price for phthalic anhydride was 7587.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% from the price of 7625 yuan/ton on March 1st. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is poor. In addition, the supply of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has slightly declined, which has affected the price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society, in terms of raw materials, the price of mixed xylene has fallen, the cost of ortho xylene has decreased, downstream phthalic anhydride manufacturers have poor sales, the phthalic anhydride market has declined, and the demand for ortho xylene is poor. Overall, as costs decrease and demand weakens, the pressure on ortho benzene prices to decline is increasing. It is expected that ortho benzene prices will fluctuate slightly in the future.