According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, 1 # tin ingot in East China fluctuated and fell this week (1.29-2.5), with an average market price of 221460 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 211360 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, a weekly decrease of 4.56%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of the futures market, the futures market continued to decline during the week, and social inventory continued to accumulate, dragging down the trend of the futures market. On Monday, the Shanghai tin futures market continued to decline in early trading, and the spot market continued to follow suit. Fundamentally speaking, refineries still maintain a price push mentality on the supply side, but unfortunately, the poor performance of market demand has led to consecutive price declines, affecting the mentality of enterprises. In terms of demand, as the holiday approaches, the downstream has basically entered the holiday mode. Recently, there have been many difficulties in transportation, and downstream procurement intentions are low, resulting in overall weak demand. Overall, the holiday atmosphere in the market is relatively strong, and the lack of demand support has led to a downward pressure on the market under the influence of high inventory.

Related data:

On February 4th, the base metal index was 1160 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.22% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 80.69% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On February 4th, the non-ferrous index was 1092 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.90% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 5th week of 2024 (1.29-2.2), there were a total of 4 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were sponge titanium (0.97%), antimony (0.83%), and gold (0.79%). There are a total of 7 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are zinc (-3.03%), tin (-2.96%), and nickel (-1.76%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.3%.

Zinc prices fluctuated and fell in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 31st, the price of zinc was 21250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.57% from the zinc price of 21588 yuan/ton on January 1st. As the Spring Festival approaches, both supply and demand are weak, and zinc prices fluctuated and fell in January.

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rebounded in January

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of the manufacturing industry in January was 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The domestic manufacturing industry has rebounded, and the expansion of the production index has accelerated, but overall it is still in a contraction range. The lack of macroeconomic benefits is generally bearish for the zinc market.

The processing cost of zinc concentrate has decreased

From the trend chart of zinc concentrate processing fees, it can be seen that the zinc concentrate processing fees continued to decline in January, with a slight decrease. As the Spring Festival approaches, smelters are still in the stage of reserving raw materials in the first quarter, and their procurement is relatively active. The tight mining situation provides cost support for zinc prices. The profits of smelters are in an inverted state, and some smelters have experienced maintenance and production reduction. Expected decrease in zinc supply in the market.

Zinc concentrate port inventory decline

From the statistical chart of zinc concentrate port inventory, it can be seen that in January, zinc concentrate inventory decreased, zinc concentrate supply decreased, and zinc market supply tightened, providing some positive support for zinc prices.

Domestic zinc ingot social inventory fluctuates and rises

From the domestic zinc ingot inventory statistics chart, it can be seen that zinc ingot inventory fluctuated and increased in January. As the Spring Festival approached, downstream enterprises stocked up, and zinc ingot inventory briefly declined. However, overall zinc ingot inventory increased, and downstream demand was poor, resulting in a clear negative impact on zinc prices.

Decreased demand

As the year-end approaches, downstream sectors have gradually entered a holiday period. Last week, the operating rate of galvanized sectors declined significantly, with a weekly operating rate decrease of 2.76%; Most die-casting zinc alloy companies will start reducing production lines and taking maintenance breaks in late January; Last week, the orders of various downstream sectors in the zinc oxide sector increased and decreased, and the overall operating rate remained weak. This week, as zinc oxide enterprises continued to holiday, the operating rate of enterprises continued to decline. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream production has significantly declined, downstream consumption is weak, and zinc prices are bearish.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the supply and demand of zinc in China were weak in January, and downstream customers stopped production for maintenance more. The supply of zinc in the market was relatively sufficient. Overall, the supply of zinc exceeded the demand, and zinc prices fluctuated and fell. In the future, the supply of zinc in the market is still sufficient, and it is difficult to improve in the short term during the off-season of the zinc market. It is expected that zinc prices will consolidate at a low level.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from January 29th to February 2nd, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market increased from 9518 yuan/ton to 9675 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.64% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 1.57%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.78%. The domestic cyclohexanone market is on the rise, and the raw material pure benzene market is operating strongly. The cost pressure is constantly increasing, and the spot supply of cyclohexanone market is not high. Downstream solvents are gradually on vacation, and chemical fibers are purchased on demand. Due to cost pressure, the market low price is continuously decreasing.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic price of pure benzene has significantly increased, the increase in pure benzene production is limited, and downstream factories have low inventory. They actively picked up goods from ports before the year. As of February 2nd, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 7967.17 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is about 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to equipment maintenance. The weekly average operating load of cyclohexanone is 66.13%, which is+0.33% higher than last week. The weekly production is 101600 tons, which is+01300 tons compared to last week. The supply of cyclohexanone is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market has remained strong and organized, with upstream pure benzene prices continuing to rise recently and strong cost support. Although the caprolactam plant has restarted and resumed supply, the overall inventory of the enterprise is low, and the selling price is mainly firm. The downstream PA6 polymerization factory is operating steadily and replenishing as needed. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

In the future market forecast, the raw material pure benzene is operating at a high level, with good cost support. The spot supply and demand of cyclohexanone are weak, and the cyclohexanone analyst from Business Society predicts that the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly experience a slight consolidation in the short term.

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 31, 2024, the domestic market price of n-propanol was referenced at 7950 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as the price at the beginning of the month. Compared with December 13, 2023 (reference price of n-propanol was 7850 yuan/ton), the price increased by 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.27%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that in January, the overall market situation of domestic n-propanol remained stable and organized. Within the month, the fundamentals of the domestic n-propanol market were relatively calm, with little adjustment in the supply and demand sides. The overall production of n-propanol was normal, and the pace of supply side shipments was normal. Downstream n-propanol was stocked according to demand and quantity. The overall transmission of supply and demand in the market was stable, and there were no significant fluctuations in the market. As of January 31st, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7400-7800 yuan/ton. The normal operation of the n-propanol plant in the Nanjing area, and the overall stable operation of the n-propanol market, with a reference price of around 8500-9000 yuan/ton for the n-propanol market. Dealers in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of future market trends of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-propanol market is light and mild. Some downstream factories are nearing the end of pre holiday stocking, with sporadic small orders and moderate stocking. The overall market remains relatively calm. As the Spring Festival approaches, domestic logistics are also gradually shutting down. Business Society’s n-propanol data analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly continue to operate steadily, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

The price of blue charcoal has slightly decreased, with insufficient cost support and weakened downstream demand. In January, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region slightly decreased, with the price dropping from 3016.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.55%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 21.40% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the factory prices of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in the northwest region slightly decreased in January.

Cost side: Low price consolidation of blue charcoal

In January, the upstream price of calcium carbide blue charcoal dropped significantly, with a price of around 1000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. In the short term, the price of blue charcoal is stable but weak, and the cost support for calcium carbide is insufficient.

On the demand side: Downstream market fluctuations and declines

In January, the downstream PVC market price of calcium carbide fluctuated and fell. The enthusiasm for PVC market inquiries is average, and market transactions are light. The market price has dropped from 5638 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5590 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.85%, and the end of month price has decreased by 12.72% year-on-year. The domestic market for 1,4-butanediol has remained stable with a downward trend, with rigid contract trading and light spot trading. The market price of 1,4-butanediol has slightly declined. The market price of 1,4-butanediol decreased from 9535.71 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9421.43 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.20%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 24.39% year-on-year. The downstream market of calcium carbide is fluctuating and falling, and downstream demand is weakening.

Looking ahead, in mid to early February, the calcium carbide market may experience a slight decline, with consolidation being the main trend. The price of upstream raw material blue charcoal has slightly decreased, and the cost support for calcium carbide is insufficient. The downstream PVC and 1,4-butanediol markets have fluctuated and fallen, and downstream demand has weakened. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in mid to early February, with consolidation being the main trend.