According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic asphalt market fluctuated narrowly in February. From February 1st to 29th, the average producer price of asphalt in Shandong Province increased from 3585 yuan/ton to 3606 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.60%, and the price decreased by 7.31% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, driven by the rise in international crude oil prices, refinery costs were significantly supported, and prices in some regions were pushed up. The widespread rain and snow weather has hindered the demand for essential goods, and the downstream terminal demand in the north and south is weak, with basic contract warehousing being the main focus. The asphalt market is showing a state of weak supply and demand, and the situation of price but no market is gradually emerging.

After the Spring Festival, the rain and snow weather in the area hindered demand, and traders showed high enthusiasm for quoting. However, actual transactions were average, and some spot asphalt prices remained stable but declined.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil, international crude oil prices fluctuated at a high level in February. During the traditional Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, international crude oil experienced a strong rebound. The main reason is focused on the issue of geopolitical tension in the Middle East. As of the close on February 28th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.15 per barrel, a decrease of $0.41 or 0.5%.

On the supply side, the decline in production from main businesses and local refineries has had a supportive effect on prices at the beginning of the month. However, by the end of the month, the amount of available finished products is low, coupled with strong demand, the overall trading atmosphere is still acceptable. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry increased first and then decreased within the month, with a positive impact on the supply side.

On the demand side, during the Spring Festival holiday, the basic demand in various regions has basically stagnated, and downstream construction has basically stagnated. Coupled with the impact of large-scale rain and snow weather, the overall demand for domestic asphalt has weakened, and market trading is average. The demand side of the asphalt market is bearish.

As of the close of February 29th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has fallen. The main asphalt contract 2406 opened at 3688 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3710 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3672 yuan/ton. It closed at 360 yuan/ton in the end, a decrease of 10% from the previous trading day’s settlement, a decrease of 0.27%, a trading volume of 122303 lots, a holding volume of 206110 lots, and a daily increase of 7851 lots.

According to future forecasts, with the gradual improvement of weather and the start of demand, the demand for asphalt in the market is expected to steadily increase, and the overall trading atmosphere in March tends to be positive. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that as low-priced resources decrease, short-term spot asphalt prices are expected to rise slightly.

According to the bulk list data, as of February 29, 2024, the reference price for diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton compared to the price on January 31, 2024 (reference price for diethylene glycol is 5660 yuan/ton), a decrease of 7.95%.

From the monitoring of data from Business Society, it can be seen that the domestic diethylene glycol market was weak and downward in February. One week before the Spring Festival holiday, downstream unsaturated resins entered a state of comprehensive shutdown and holiday, while demand for polyester and polyurethane remained low. Traders continued to leave the market to observe, and the trading atmosphere on the market was cold, with weak price adjustments. After the holiday, the port inventory has accumulated, and the supply has increased, putting pressure on the market mentality. The downstream market is in the start-up recovery stage, and demand follow-up performance is insufficient. The overall market sentiment is weak, with prices fluctuating and falling. The decline at the end of the month has slowed down, and the market is weak and consolidating.

In terms of supply: In early March, the pre arrival quantity of imported cargo was high and concentrated, and the main port inventory will accumulate again, with inventory possibly rising to 50000 tons. The expectation of supply increment still exists, and the market mentality is still under pressure.

Downstream demand: Downstream and terminal startups are slow, overall demand remains weak, and industry participation in the market is limited. Although the operating load of unsaturated resin enterprises has increased, they still maintain order production.

Market forecast: Currently, there is no plan for a pullback in the production of domestically produced equipment, and domestic supply has increased. At the same time, in early March, the import volume to port was relatively high and concentrated, and there was a certain accumulation of port inventory. The expectation of supply increment will still give market pressure; Entering March, downstream demand will gradually recover, unsaturated resin production will return to normal levels, and the polyester and polyurethane industries will also have replenishment demand, with an expected increase in demand. Business Society Diethylene Glycol Analysts believe that the domestic Diethylene Glycol market experienced a weak adjustment in March, and specific attention still needs to be paid to port inventory accumulation and demand growth.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, as of February 29th and 18th, the BOPP market and above are the main players for this month μ The price of BOPP film is around 9631 yuan/ton, an increase of about 0.68% compared to the beginning of the month. The highest point of the price appeared in the second half of the month at 9631 yuan/ton, and the lowest point appeared in the first half of the month, with a price of about 9566 yuan/ton.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP has fluctuated and increased this month. The mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7650 yuan/ton, an increase of about 0.43% compared to the beginning of the month. The highest point of the price appeared on February 19th, at 7690 yuan/ton, and the lowest point appeared in the middle of the month, with a price of about 7593 yuan/ton. The cost side has strong support for BOPP prices

In terms of demand: With downstream membrane companies starting construction after the holiday, market demand has increased, and the number of orders has increased. A small number of enterprises just need to replenish goods, and market demand has a strong support for prices

Future Market Forecast

It is expected that BOPP prices will continue to rise slightly in the near future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong fluctuated and increased in February. The price of isooctanol increased from 12375 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 12450 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.61%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 35.82% year-on-year.

On February 27th, the Isooctanol Commodity Index was 91.54, an increase of 0.09 points from yesterday, a decrease of 33.43% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 160.43% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream ex factory prices of Shandong isooctanol have slightly increased this month, with average inventory levels.

Cost side: Propylene market fluctuates and rises

The propylene market rose first and then fell in February, with an overall slight increase. At the beginning of the month, the price of propylene fell to a low point, and downstream investors entered the market on dips, resulting in an increase in trading volume and a wave of increase in propylene prices. After the holiday, downstream demand fell short of expectations and some inventory was mainly consumed. Upstream goods flow is not smooth, and prices are under pressure and declining. At the end of the month, due to the increase in prices of some downstream products and propylene, profits rebounded, driving downstream active entry into the market and slightly increasing propylene prices. The upstream market has slightly increased, with good cost support, which has a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

Demand side: DOP market fluctuates and rises

After the holiday, plasticizer enterprises resumed production, demand increased, and DOP market prices fluctuated and rose. The price of DOP increased from 11780 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11800 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.17%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 18.71% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly increased, and downstream customers are more enthusiastic about purchasing isooctanol.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early March, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience a slight fluctuation and rise, with consolidation being the main trend. The upstream propylene price has slightly increased, with increased cost support. The downstream DOP market has recently seen a slight increase, and downstream manufacturers are more proactive in purchasing isooctanol. Analysts from Shengyishe Isooctanol believe that in the short term, the Shandong Isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has strengthened, with some spot prices rising. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of February 26th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14925 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+1.02% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has recently increased. Last week, the price of raw material pure benzene increased, leading to increased cost support. Driven by raw materials, the market trend of caprolactam is on the rise. Downstream replenishment is mainly based on demand, and the market transaction atmosphere is good, which provides strong support for the cost of PA6.

In terms of supply:

Recently, the load of PA6 production enterprises has been steadily increasing, with an average operating rate of over 82%. The market supply has remained relatively stable compared to the previous period, and the on-site supply of goods is relatively abundant. The inventory level is still not high, the pressure on suppliers is not significant, and there is still support for PA6 spot goods.

In terms of demand: downstream, the main downstream industries have not yet fully resumed work. The operating rate of spinning has increased to around 70%, while the weaving load has rebounded to nearly 37%, and there is still room for an increase in load in March. The demand for stocking by terminal enterprises has slightly increased, and on-site trading tends to be cautious. The demand side support for PA6 is average.

Future Market Forecast

In the week after the holiday, the PA6 market consolidation was relatively strong. The price of caprolactam has strengthened, providing sustained support for the cost side of PA6. The load of domestic polymerization plants remains stable with small fluctuations, and the inventory position remains low. Terminal enterprises need to stock up on demand. But pure benzene has started to decline, which may affect the cost side of PA6 in the future. As the load increases, the pressure on the supply side will gradually become apparent. It is expected that the PA6 market will enter a consolidation phase in the short term.