Cobalt prices fluctuate and fall after the holiday

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, on February 20th, the cobalt price was 216800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% compared to February 1st’s cobalt price of 217500 yuan/ton; Compared to February 9th, the cobalt price of 217200 yuan/ton decreased by 0.18%. The resumption of work and production after the holiday is not satisfactory, and the demand for cobalt in the market is weak. The price of cobalt continues to decline after the holiday, and the price of cobalt fluctuates and falls.

The resumption of work and production is not satisfactory, and the demand for cobalt in the market remains weak

After the festival, the downstream resumed work, and the logistics has not yet fully recovered. Some enterprises plan to resume production after Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival). Currently, most of them stop production for maintenance. Downstream stocking before the holiday, inventory still exists, downstream customer restocking is limited after the holiday, and actual transactions in the spot market are scarce.

The traditional off-season for new energy vehicles has not seen a recovery in high economic development after the holiday season. The production of battery factories and upstream raw material manufacturers has increased, and there is still uncertainty in cobalt demand. Consumer electronics remain weak, and corporate procurement enthusiasm is insufficient. The demand for cobalt in the market is cold.

Overview and Outlook

Business Society data analyst Bai Jiaxin believes that the resumption of work and production after the holiday is not good, and the demand for cobalt in the market is still cold, while the supply in the cobalt market is sufficient. Overall, the oversupply and weak demand in the cobalt market are expected to lead to a weak consolidation of cobalt prices in the future.

After holiday price consolidation of plasticizer DOP

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 19th, the price of DOP was 11820 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.08% compared to the price of 11810 yuan/ton on February 9th before the holiday; Compared to February 1st, the price of 11780 yuan/ton fluctuated and increased by 0.34%. The price of raw material isooctanol has increased, the cost of plasticizer DOP has increased, and the price of DOP has stabilized strongly; During the Spring Festival, the production of plasticizer enterprises decreased, and some enterprises stopped, with a production rate of less than 30%. After the holiday, plasticizer enterprises resumed production, and the supply of plasticizer DOP increased.

After the holiday, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 19th, the quotation for isooctanol was 12450 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.81% compared to the quotation for isooctanol on February 9th before the holiday, which was 12350 yuan/ton; Compared to February 1st at the beginning of the month, the price of 12375 yuan/ton increased by 0.61%. During the Spring Festival, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased, but there was some recovery after the holiday. In addition, downstream customers restocked, and the demand for isooctanol slowly rebounded. During the Spring Festival, the price of isooctanol remained high, and after the holiday, the price of isooctanol slightly increased.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that during the Spring Festival, plasticizer manufacturers have seen a decrease in production, but after the holiday, plasticizer production has resumed, and the supply of plasticizers has increased. In addition, the price of isooctanol has risen, leading to an increase in the cost of plasticizer DOP. In the future, as the cost of plasticizers increases and the supply increases, there is still limited support from the rise in DOP and downward pressure. It is expected that DOP prices will remain weak and consolidate in the future.

Review of polyacrylamide market trends in 2023

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China in 2023 was 15442.86 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 13220.00 yuan/ton at the end of the year, with an annual decline of 14.39%. The highest point of the year occurred on January 11th at 15642.86 yuan/ton, and the lowest point of the year occurred on December 8th at 1322.00 yuan/ton, with a maximum amplitude of 15.49%. The polyacrylamide market will experience a high decline in 2023.

According to the K-bar chart data of the polyacrylamide market in Business Society in 2023, the polyaluminum chloride market experienced more declines and less gains, with one month of upward movement and eleven months of downward movement. The highest increase was in January, up 0.65%, and the highest decrease was in April, down 3.37%.

In 2023, the polyacrylamide market continued to decline, and due to the overall impact of the economic situation, downstream demand remained weak and the industry’s prosperity was not high; Domestic manufacturers in the main production areas have normal production and abundant stock; The overall market for polyacrylamide raw materials has fallen, with limited supply and demand support, and manufacturers continue to lower prices.

Prediction of polyacrylamide market in 2024

Cost side:

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market will fluctuate widely in 2023. At the beginning of the year, the price was 9600 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the price was 9812 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.21% compared to the beginning of the year; The high point of the year was 10800 yuan/ton, and the low point was 7800 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 38.46%.

As of the end of 2023, the total production capacity of acrylonitrile in China reached 4.399 million tons/year, and the annual utilization rate of acrylonitrile industry capacity was 73.11%. According to statistics, there are still three sets of new production capacity plans totaling 920000 tons/year planned to be put into operation in China in 2024, with most of the production time in the second half of 2024. The increase in supply will put pressure on the acrylonitrile market in 2024.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in the East China region was 6800 yuan/ton on January 1, 2023, and the average price of acrylic acid on December 31 was 6187.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.01% in the year’s market. The lowest price point of the year was 5825.00 yuan/ton on November 3rd, and the highest price point of the year was 8200.00 yuan/ton on February 13th, with a maximum amplitude of 40.77%. In 2023, with the completion of the construction of the 180000 ton acrylic acid plant for Zhejiang Satellite, China’s acrylic acid production capacity expanded to 4.08 million tons, with a slight increase in production compared to 2022. Wanhua Chemical and Shandong Sanyue have plans to put new acrylic acid plants into operation in 2024, and the overall acrylic acid production capacity is expected to increase in 2024.

Supply side: China is the world’s largest producer of polyacrylamide, and in recent years, the scale of China’s polyacrylamide industry has continued to grow. In 2022, the production of polyacrylamide in China was 1.3623 million tons, with a demand of 1.1653 million tons. Polyacrylamide in China is mainly a mid to low-end product, while high-end products still need to be imported.

Demand side: From the application scenarios of polyacrylamide, the petroleum extraction industry is the main downstream of polyacrylamide. About 42% of the total production of polyacrylamide in China is used for petroleum extraction, 31% for water treatment, 13% for the papermaking industry, and other industries such as coal washing and metallurgy account for 14%. As of 2023, the number of urban sewage treatment plants in China has exceeded 2000, with a daily processing capacity of 170 million cubic meters. At the same time, more and more rural areas are starting to build sewage treatment facilities, further promoting the development of the industry.

Market forecast: Currently, there is not much difference between supply and demand in China’s polyacrylamide market. In 2024, the polyacrylamide market in China will still be greatly affected by upstream and downstream market trends, and it is expected that the polyacrylamide market will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8257 yuan/ton on January 31, and the average price on February 7 was 8188 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.83% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9192 yuan/ton on January 31, and the average price on February 7 was 9245 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.57% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8437 yuan/ton on January 31, and the average price on February 6 was 8412 yuan/ton, with a 0.3% decrease in quotation during this period.

This week, the LLDPE market experienced a narrow and weak decline, with LDPE prices remaining stable after a slight increase, and HDPE prices remaining stable after a slight decline. The cost side provides certain support for polyethylene. Domestic polyethylene enterprises have relatively few maintenance equipment, and the supply is still sufficient; As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream factories are gradually taking a break, and the operating rate has decreased compared to the previous period. Market demand has weakened, transactions are limited, and the demand side lacks support for polyethylene. There are signs of inventory accumulation in enterprises before the holiday, and there is a weakening trend in on-site quotations. Traders mainly focus on volume and profit.

On February 7th, the opening price of the polyethylene l2405 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 8145 yuan, and the closing price was 8220 yuan, up 122 yuan, with a maximum of 8231 yuan and a minimum of 8124 yuan, up 1.51%. This week, the trend of polyethylene futures was weak, bearish on the spot market.

After the Spring Festival, due to the accumulation of inventory in enterprises during the holiday period, demand remains weak, resulting in weak supply and demand for polyethylene; The frequent introduction of favorable policy news in the domestic market has boosted market confidence and provided certain support to the polyethylene market. It is expected that polyethylene will mainly adjust its operation in a narrow range after the holiday.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, industrial grade lithium carbonate and battery grade lithium carbonate remained stable this week. On February 6, 2024, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 91400 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to the average price of 91400 yuan/ton on February 1. On February 6th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 100800 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to the average price of 100800 yuan/ton on February 1st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that this week is the last week before the Spring Festival holiday, and the price of lithium carbonate remains stable. In terms of supply, the current market continues to adopt a price boosting shipping strategy. A small number of lithium salt enterprises that purchase lithium mines have gradually reduced production and stopped production in the near future after experiencing long-term losses. Some large lithium salt factories will undergo routine seasonal maintenance during the Spring Festival period, and there is no inventory pressure in the short term. Therefore, the price of lithium carbonate remains stable.

In terms of demand, the willingness of downstream positive electrode enterprises to accept high prices of lithium carbonate is still low, and as the holiday season approaches, the market purchasing demand will gradually weaken. Downstream manufacturers have basically completed pre holiday stocking, and most small and medium-sized enterprises have stopped production since this week. In addition, logistics have been affected by weather and the Spring Festival, resulting in a trend of light trading volume. The entire market is showing a stable trend.

The lithium hydroxide market is mainly stable, and recently the industrial grade lithium carbonate market has been stable. Upstream spodumene concentrate prices are stable, with limited cost support. Some factories are operating at a low level, and downstream high nickel positive electrode pre holiday reserves are still following up. Market transactions are still mainly long-term contract orders.

The price of downstream lithium iron phosphate is stable, and the price of the main raw material lithium carbonate is temporarily stable. The price of iron phosphate is stable and weak, and the production cost of iron lithium materials is relatively stable. Lithium iron phosphate enterprises develop production plans based on received and expected orders, and some enterprises prepare sufficient inventory before holidays.

In terms of futures, on February 6, 2024, the opening price of the LC2407 main contract was 100450 yuan/ton, the highest price was 100650 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 97150 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 3.38%. The transaction volume was 110900 lots and the position was 142239 lots.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Carbonate, the current market has entered the countdown to the Spring Festival holiday, and market quotations have remained stable. Whether prices can recover depends on post holiday market demand, and it is expected that the short-term spot price of lithium carbonate will remain stable.