Price trend in 2023:

In 2023, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market first rose and then fell, with an overall upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 1, 2023, the average quotation price of 85% industrial grade formic acid enterprises in China was 3000.00 yuan/ton. As of December 31, the average formic acid price was 3150.00 yuan/ton, with a 5% increase in the market price for the year.

In the first half of the year, the transaction price of formic acid in the market was around 3000.00 yuan/ton in January. Before the Spring Festival, supply side construction was at a high level, and inventory was under pressure. Downstream stocking enthusiasm was poor, and some enterprises reduced prices to reduce inventory. After the Spring Festival, mainstream enterprises experienced equipment shutdowns and a decline in operating rates. In addition, the increase in raw material prices has strengthened cost support, and downstream demand is still acceptable. Business owners have a positive attitude, and in February, cost and supply support for formic acid prices have increased. The cost support in March is still acceptable, with the market mainly digesting inventory and slightly increasing demand. In the latter half of the year, the supply side contracted, and prices rose again, resulting in orderly market transactions. The formic acid market remained stable at a high level in April, while downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, rubber, leather, and pesticides bought on demand in May. The overall trading volume of the market remained unchanged, and merchants shipped according to market trends. In June, the formic acid market continued to remain stable, with mainstream prices remaining around 3900 yuan/ton.

Second half of the year: In July, the supply and demand support remained relatively stable, and the market trend remained stable. In late August, some companies lowered prices to ship due to inventory pressure, and the focus of negotiations in the formic acid market remained stable with some declines. In September, some manufacturers had excess production in the early stage, and the supply side had sufficient supply of goods. However, the downstream inquiry and procurement atmosphere was weak, mainly focusing on just waiting and following up. Some inventories were under pressure, and the market declined. Cost support weakened in October, and after the Double Festival, downstream inquiries and procurement followed up on demand, with holders actively shipping and the market stabilizing. Some companies lowered their prices. In mid to early November, the situation remained stable, but towards the end of the month, downstream procurement enthusiasm was relatively weak, mainly due to rigid demand, and some companies experienced a downward pressure on prices. The market trading remained stable in the first half of December, while downstream buyers had a poor mentality in the second half. Actual market transactions were flat, with some inventory under pressure and prices falling.

Cost side: Upstream sulfuric acid: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market will experience a sharp rise and fall in 2023. The average price at the beginning of the year was 286.67 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 274 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.42% for the whole year. Upstream Methanol: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of methanol fell in 2023, with a price of 2698.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 2450.00 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a decrease of 9.20% for the whole year. The cost in 2023 is generally supported by the formic acid market.

Import and export: According to customs data, the total import volume of formic acid in China from January to December 2023 was 16177 kilograms, a year-on-year decrease of 74.14%. The total export volume of formic acid in China from January to December 2023 was 279981163 kilograms, a year-on-year increase of 24.70%. The export market still provides support for the formic acid market in 2023, and it is expected that the export market support may still exist in 2024.

Comprehensive prediction:

Formic acid is one of the basic organic chemical raw materials, widely used in fields such as pesticides, leather, dyes, pharmaceuticals, and rubber. The demand for formic acid in 2024 may be relatively stable, and the procurement of formic acid in the market may continue to follow the rigid demand. The supply and demand pattern may not change much, and it is expected that the formic acid market will continue to warm up and operate in 2024. More attention still needs to be paid to changes in cost and export orders.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the overall price of isopropanol is expected to decline in 2023. At the beginning of the year, the average domestic price of isopropanol was 6680 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the average price was 7890 yuan/ton. The price of isopropanol decreased by 18.11% during the year. The highest price of isopropanol for the year is 9300 yuan/ton, and the lowest price for the year is 6340 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

From the perspective of market development in 2023, isopropanol is in a fluctuating and rising stage from January to April; 4-6 is in a declining stage; 7-9 upward phase; The price fluctuated and fell from 10 to 12.

In the first quarter, the average price of isopropanol was 6680 yuan/ton on January 1st and 6940 yuan/ton on March 31st, with a cumulative increase of 3.89% from January to March. After the January holiday, the acetone market rose, driving the isopropanol market to stop falling and rebound, and the overall market fluctuated and rose. As of the end of March, the majority of isopropanol market quotations in Shandong region were around 6500-6900 yuan/ton; The majority of prices for isopropanol in the Jiangsu Zhejiang market are around 6900-7300 yuan/ton.

In the second quarter, the average price of isopropanol was 6900 yuan/ton on April 1st, and 6440 yuan/ton on June 30th. The cumulative decline from April to June was 6.67%. The domestic isopropanol market fluctuated and rose in April. The market price of acetone continues to rise, driving confidence in the isopropanol market and causing market prices to fluctuate and rise. From May to June, raw material prices fell, and the trading atmosphere in the isopropanol market was light. Actual orders were cautious, and market confidence was insufficient. The focus shifted downwards. As of the end of June, the majority of isopropanol market quotations in Shandong region were around 6200-6400 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu region are around 6700-6800 yuan/ton.

The average price of isopropanol in the third quarter was 6440 yuan/ton on July 1st, and 9280 yuan/ton on September 30th, with a cumulative increase of 44.1% from July to September. The price of raw material acetone has risen, while propylene has slightly increased. The overall cost support has driven up the price of isopropanol in the market. In addition, the export sector has performed well, and the domestic market has also performed well. Overall, the market trading is relatively active. As of the end of September, the majority of isopropanol market quotations in Shandong region were around 9000-9300 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 9500-9600 yuan/ton.

The average price of isopropanol in the fourth quarter was 9280 yuan/ton on October 1st, and 7890 yuan/ton on December 31st. The cumulative increase from October to December was 14.98%. The prices of raw materials acetone and propylene have fallen one after another, and overall cost support is weak. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is light, with downstream and traders maintaining a wait-and-see attitude. As of the end of December, the majority of isopropanol market quotations in Shandong region were around 7500-7800 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 7900-8200 yuan/ton.

Production capacity and output

According to publicly available data, the production areas of isopropanol are mainly concentrated in Asia, North America, Western Europe, and other regions. In recent years, the isopropanol market in China has developed rapidly, and China’s isopropanol production capacity plays a crucial role in Asia and even globally. In 2021, the production of isopropanol in China was approximately 454200 tons, and in 2022, the production of isopropanol in China was approximately 473500 tons. In 2023, China’s production of isopropanol was 469900 tons.

From the perspective of competition among enterprises in China’s isopropanol industry, analysis based on enterprise production capacity shows that isopropanol production enterprises in China are relatively concentrated, with about 17 isopropanol production enterprises nationwide, with a total production capacity of about 1.165 million tons.

From the perspective of regional competition in China’s isopropanol industry, isopropanol is mainly distributed in six provinces: Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Guangdong, and Hunan. Among them, Jiangsu Province has the largest production capacity, with a total production capacity of about 376000 tons, accounting for 34.3% of the national production capacity; Next is Shandong Province, with a production capacity of approximately 320000 tons, accounting for approximately 29.2%. The production capacity of Liaoning Province is about 184000 tons, accounting for 16.8%. The production capacity of isopropanol in Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Hunan is 130000 tons, 70000 tons, and 15000 tons, accounting for 11.9%, 6.4%, and 1.4%, respectively.

Import and export data

Time/ . Import volume (kg)../Export volume (kg)

2018/41854977./105382788

2019/32889801./183117591

2020./47834777./250018110

2021./45526194./119264957

2022./42817940./164566296

2023./44861220./130747755

In 2023, China imported 44861220 kilograms of isopropanol and exported 130747755 kilograms. The main export destinations for Chinese isopropanol are India, Indonesia, and Thailand. India has implemented quota based safeguard measures for the import of isopropanol, which has led to a decrease in export volume.

On April 6, 2023, the WTO Safeguards Committee issued a safeguard notification submitted by the Indian delegation to India on April 5, 2023. India decided to implement safeguard measures for imported isopropanol in the form of quotas, which are issued quarterly and valid for one year from April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024, and will terminate upon expiration. The main countries and regions involved are Chinese Mainland, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, China.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Isopropanol is based on two processes: acetone and propylene. At present, the profitability of the isopropanol acetone hydrogenation process is better than that of the propylene hydration process, so the price of isopropanol mainly varies with the acetone raw material.

In 2024, China’s isopropanol production capacity will continue to increase, and overcapacity will have a significant impact on the price trend of the isopropanol market. The main market adjustment direction has also fallen on the operating rate of isopropanol. The operating load rate of isopropanol in 2024 may fluctuate very frequently.

From 2022 to 2023, domestic demand has shown a downward trend. Isopropanol is currently mainly exported, with limited domestic demand. With the end of India’s quota based safeguard measures for imported isopropanol on March 31, 2024. In 2024, China’s export of isopropanol may experience a slight increase.

In summary, in 2024, the factors affecting the price of isopropanol will still be domestic demand, exports, cost, and adjustment of operating load rate. Under the premise of a significant increase in export volume, the market will perform even stronger.

Bromine is the only non-metallic substance in liquid form at room temperature, with the chemical formula Br2. It is dark reddish brown in color and has an irritating odor. Bromine has active physicochemical properties and can form a wide variety of inorganic bromides as well as a large amount of brominated organic compounds. Due to the unique physical and chemical properties of different bromides, bromine has become a widely used basic chemical raw material, and is one of the key raw materials in chemical production and even the entire industrial production.

Take a look at the price of bromine: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the overall price of bromine is weak in 2023, with an average market price of 44600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 23000 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a price drop of 48.43%.

From the monthly K-bar chart of bromine, it can be seen that in 2023, prices only increased in July, August, October, and November, while prices decreased in the other eight months. The largest increase was in August, with prices rising by 21.08%, and the largest decrease was in March, with prices falling by 20.97%.

Taking a look at the annual comparison chart of bromine, it can be seen that the overall price of bromine has been weak this year, with prices remaining at a low level in all months except for January and February.

Let’s take a closer look at the price trend. The first stage, from January to the end of June, saw a continuous decline in prices. At the beginning of the year, the average market price was 44600 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, the average market price was 18000 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 59.64%. In the first half of 2023, prices continued to decline unilaterally, and by the end of June, prices had reached the lowest historical level for the whole year. At the beginning of the year, due to the Spring Festival, bromine manufacturers still had a small amount of inventory, mainly consuming inventory. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are operating at low loads, with a low willingness to purchase and mainly relying on multi-dimensional and rigid demand procurement. Downstream demand was weak and continued until the end of June.

In the second stage, prices will increase from mid July to the end of August, rising from the market average of 18000 yuan/ton in early July to around 24800 yuan/ton on August 25th, with a price increase of 37.78%. Mainly because in early July, a large bromine enterprise in Shandong stopped for one week of maintenance. The main reason for the mid month is due to the arrival of the rainy season, which reduces the production of seawater bromine brine and slightly reduces the production of bromine. Downstream support is average, and the flame retardant and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing on demand in recent times. The attitude of bromine enterprises in the industry is average. The price of bromine enterprises is rising, and downstream enterprises are repeatedly observing, creating a strong gaming atmosphere.

In the third stage, from the end of August to December, the price will be around 24200-25300 yuan/ton for consolidation. As the temperature decreases, bromine companies are also preparing for winter storage. Enterprises focus on maintaining a stable mindset and have a clear intention to stabilize prices. They tend to hold onto goods and be reluctant to sell, but with weak downstream expectations, it is difficult to raise prices. The supply-demand game is dominated by price consolidation.

Bromine prices will continue to remain low in 2023, can prices improve in 2024

On the supply side, the supply of bromine in China has changed relatively little, and the overall supply trend is relatively stable. Due to the increasing reduction of underground brine resources, the increase in bromine production capacity in China is slow.

In terms of import and export: Currently, the self-sufficiency rate of the domestic bromine market in China is not high, and bromine heavily relies on imports. The self-sufficiency rate of bromine in China has maintained a low level in recent years. However, the import dependence of bromine is high, and the supply of the bromine industry chain is restricted by countries such as Israel, the United States, and India, which hinders the downstream development of bromine in China. Customs data shows that in December 2023, the import of bromine was 7367 tons, an increase of 836.3 tons or 12.8% compared to the previous month. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2023 was 55138.22 tons, a decrease of 4174.28 tons or 7.04% compared to the same period last year.

In terms of flame retardants, long-term sluggish downstream demand has led to slow inventory consumption by manufacturers. The main flame retardant manufacturer, tetrabromobisphenol A, maintains low load operation and low prices. The price of tetrabromobisphenol A is close to the cost line, resulting in a significant reduction in profits. At the same time, there is a lack of order support. In terms of bromine procurement, sporadic replenishment is the main focus, while flame retardant manufacturers only rely on replenishment for immediate needs.

Prediction: According to the analysis of Business Society, the price of bromine has been weak in recent times, and the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have received average support recently. Market transactions are weak, and bromine enterprises mainly consume inventory, taking advantage of downstream opportunities to lower prices. The supply of bromine in our country has changed relatively little, and we need to rely on imported bromine from abroad. Overall, it is expected that the price of bromine will be weak in the short term. However, as the weather warms up after the year, enterprises will resume production and downstream demand will recover. Bromine may recover after the year, depending on downstream market demand.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has seen a narrow rise, with spot prices of various brands increasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 22, the average price of ABS sample products was 10812.50 yuan/ton, a+1.14% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: At the end of last year, the domestic ABS industry had a high load, and due to supply pressure, the load of enterprises decreased independently. Recently, the operating rate of ABS polymerization enterprises has been lowered to around 66%, resulting in stable production and a continued decline in inventory due to the manufacturer’s destocking operations. But the profit situation of the enterprise has not improved, and the improvement of supply side pressure is limited.

In terms of raw materials, the recent trend of ABS upstream three materials is still good, among which the acrylonitrile market is relatively weak. The rise in raw material propylene prices provides reasonable cost support for acrylonitrile. But the supply of acrylonitrile is relatively loose, and the market is not buying well. But fortunately, some forward contracts and pre holiday stocking dragged the bottom, resulting in weak prices and stagnant operations.

Recently, the atmosphere of the domestic butadiene market has been high, with a significant increase last week. The main production enterprise Sinopec has raised its quotation twice by 200 yuan/ton, and a small number of bidding sources have significantly increased their prices to complete transactions. At the same time, the external prices have continued to rise, bringing a significant boost to the domestic butadiene market. The downstream synthetic rubber market trend is relatively strong, driving the market’s quotation to rise broadly at one point.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene has risen this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased, and cost support is still acceptable. The increase in maintenance of styrene units has led to a contraction in market supply. The transaction in the market is still good, with a slight upward trend in the market.

In terms of demand: Last week, the main ABS terminals, including downstream factories in the home appliance industry, continued to have poor stocking enthusiasm. The main logic revolved around buying on dips and digesting inventory. As the holiday approaches, downstream enterprises have increased their holiday arrangements, and their procurement operations tend to be weak and require production to be maintained. At the same time, there has been no increase in volume for forward contracts. Midstream traders are attempting to sell at high prices, with average spot circulation and demand side support for a flat market.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS has been balanced, with increased support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant has seen a narrow decline in production, partially easing supply pressure. On the demand side, consumption is average, and merchant offers are boosted by upstream news, resulting in higher prices. The current market situation before the holiday is heavy, and trading may gradually weaken. It is expected that the ABS market may still shift towards a bearish trend.

The epoxy propane market remained stable this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 19th, the average price of epoxy propane for enterprises was 9137.50 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from Monday’s price.

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price for propylene on January 18th was 6825.75, a decrease of 0.62% compared to January 1st (6868.25). This week (1.15-1.19), the domestic propylene (Shandong) market prices have risen, with increased cost support.

Supply and demand side: At the beginning of the week, the supply was stable, and downstream inquiries and purchases were still active. The actual market transactions were average, and some factories slightly accumulated inventory in the middle of the week, but inventory pressure was controllable. Downstream observation and follow-up were the main focus. On January 19th, the mainstream quotation in the Shandong epoxy propane market was 9050-9150 yuan/ton.

The epoxy propane analyst from Business Society believes that the current cost and supply support still exist, and downstream follow-up is still possible. It is expected that the epoxy propane market may operate steadily, moderately, and strongly in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.