Wide consolidation of plasticizer DOTP prices in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 10th, the price of DOTP was 11450 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.78% compared to the fluctuating price of 11250 yuan/ton on November 1st. In November, the price of isooctanol rose and fell sharply, and PTA prices fluctuated and consolidated. Under the influence of cost factors, the price of DOTP in November adjusted widely.

PTA prices fluctuated and consolidated in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, on November 10th, the PTA price was 5888 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.83% compared to the price of 5937 yuan/ton on November 1st. The chemical fiber market is operating in a weak state, with a general trading atmosphere and poor demand for PTA. Crude oil prices have fluctuated and decreased significantly, resulting in a decrease in PTA costs. PTA prices have been volatile and consolidated in November.

The price of isooctanol skyrocketed and plummeted

According to the quotations from major isooctanol manufacturers, it can be seen that in November, the price of isooctanol continued its downward trend in October, and the quotations from major isooctanol manufacturers plummeted by 400 to 600 yuan/ton. This week, the prices of isooctanol manufacturers rebounded significantly; On November 10th, the price of isooctanol decreased by 200 to 300 yuan/ton. In November, the price of propylene first fell and then surged, with a wide adjustment in the cost of isooctanol. Downstream plasticizer companies started at a low level, resulting in poor demand for isooctanol and a wide adjustment in the price of isooctanol.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in November, PTA prices first fell and then rose, while the prices of isooctanol and plasticizer DOTP were broadly consolidated; The plastic market is weak, and downstream customers have poor purchasing enthusiasm. The demand for plasticizer DOTP remains weak. Overall, raw materials have surged and fallen sharply, while demand remains weak. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will consolidate broadly in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market has risen in a narrow range. From November 2nd to 9th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 15783 yuan/ton to 16250 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.96% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 1.04%, and a year-on-year increase of 12.46%. The domestic aggregated MDI market is relatively strong and follows suit, but the overall fluctuation is limited. Supply side production enterprises are reducing their supply, and there is stage price support. However, the overall consumption capacity of the demand side is weak, and the demand in some industries is significantly lower than in the early stage, limiting the growth of aggregated MDI.

On the supply side, maintenance of the 600000 ton/year unit at Shanghai MDI factory began on November 16th, with distillation shutdown for about two weeks and synthesis maintenance until mid December. The 400000 ton/year device at Chongqing MDI factory is scheduled for maintenance in early December. In addition, there are rumors in the market that the Ningbo factory has maintenance plans. The supply side is shrinking, but there is still room for improvement. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, the raw material of pure benzene is rising and falling in the domestic pure benzene market. East China ports have slightly accumulated inventory, and crude oil futures have fluctuated and declined, resulting in insufficient support for pure benzene. As of November 9th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangshang Society is 7850.50 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market has rebounded and reorganized, with smooth shipments from aniline factories and some factories undergoing maintenance. The spot sales of aniline have decreased, resulting in a tight supply. As of November 9th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society is 12300.00 yuan/ton. The cost of aggregating MDI is mixed.

On the demand side, the follow-up of demand orders is relatively weak. As the temperature in the north gradually cools down, the overall demand for insulation materials such as spraying, plates, and pipelines has weakened, and the on-site consumption capacity has weakened. However, with the arrival of the Double Eleven and Double Twelve E-commerce Festivals, there is still some support for the follow-up atmosphere in the refrigerator and freezer industry. Overall, downstream demand follow-up is relatively limited, and the market is slow to follow up. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is influenced by favorable factors.

In the future market forecast, after the price increase, traders’ willingness to ship will increase, and the market atmosphere will be good. Business Society MDI analysts predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly slow to follow up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently declined. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1193.33 yuan/ton, while at the end of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1196.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28%. The current price has decreased by 13.49% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has fluctuated and declined. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past two months, with a decline this week. As of November 8th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1100-1260 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and consolidated, with average cost support. The formaldehyde market has light trading volume, manufacturers are facing difficulties in shipping, inventory pressure is high, and the market has slightly declined.

Upstream methanol situation: narrow range consolidation and operation in the domestic methanol market. Last night, the Shanxi coking plant was shut down for maintenance, and the coal price fluctuated weakly, with no cost support for the market. Domestic supply is gradually recovering, and downstream demand may change or be limited. Methanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic methanol market may be in a weak position to consolidate and operate.

Recently, the methanol market has been weak and consolidating, with poor cost support. Downstream panel factories have weak demand and weak procurement. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde slightly decreased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market dropped from 8300.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7933.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 4.42%, and the weekend price decreased by 16.10% year-on-year. On November 7th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 39.26, a decrease of 0.33 points from yesterday, a decrease of 62.81% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 30.35% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have slightly decreased this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7100.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6958.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.01%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.60% at the weekend. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, dropping from 10600.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10525.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.71%, and the weekend price has increased by 8.88% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

In mid November, the trend of isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Yishang Society’s isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3116 yuan/ton on October 30th. On November 6th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3200 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 2.67%..

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3900 yuan/ton on October 30th. On November 6th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3900 yuan/ton, and the market price of diammonium phosphate remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium phosphate has risen this week. The price of raw materials such as phosphate ore and sulfur has increased, resulting in favorable cost support. At present, there are a small number of orders received by ammonium phosphate manufacturers, and the factory has a large amount of waiting orders. Follow up on market demand in the Northeast region, with an increase in market inquiries. The supply of diammonium phosphate in the market is relatively low, and the market transactions are good. As of November 6th, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 3250-3300 yuan/ton, while the factory price of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan region is around 3250 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The 64% market quotation for diammonium in Shandong region is around 3900-4000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw material sulfur. This week, the domestic sulfur market trend is dominant. As of November 6th, the reference average price of sulfur in East China is 946.67 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore. This week, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market has slightly increased again, with some mining companies in certain regions having good shipments. The prices of new orders continue to rise slightly, with an increase of around 20-50 yuan/ton. As of November 6th, the domestic market price of 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1120 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the ammonium phosphate market has risen recently due to cost support and pending orders. At present, the market supply is tight, and manufacturers and distributors are mainly reluctant to sell. It is expected that the short-term market price of ammonium phosphate will be strong and upward.