According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of 50% potassium sulfate at the beginning of this week was 3433 yuan/ton, and the price of 50% potassium sulfate at the end of this week was 3433 yuan/ton, indicating stable prices.

At present, the operating rate of the potassium sulfate plant in Mannheim has remained relatively stable, and the order volume in the factory is still acceptable. Early orders are still being delivered, and some regions have high factory quotations and some low-priced sources of goods in the market. The factory price of 52% Mannheim potassium sulfate powder is mostly between 3550-3700 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated, with the southern market price significantly higher than the northern market price.

The domestic supply of potassium fertilizer is relatively large, and the supply is mostly concentrated in the hands of large traders. Under the control of the release volume, the market supply circulation is relatively limited. The production of domestic potassium chloride manufacturers is relatively normal, and railway shipments continue, but the arrival volume in various regions is relatively scattered.

Prediction: Costs are rising, and it is expected that the domestic potassium fertilizer market prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term.

Price trend

In October, the domestic POM market mainly showed a weak downward trend, with a significant drop in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 31, the mixed price of domestic POM was 12925 yuan/ton, a decrease of -14.12% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province remained stable and fluctuated slightly in October. The raw material formaldehyde operates in a narrow range of oscillations, and the support for formaldehyde is average. However, downstream formaldehyde board companies have poor production performance, weak demand, and weak procurement, dragging down the spot market. Therefore, formaldehyde has a general impact on the cost side of POM.

On the supply side:

In October, multiple domestic POM enterprises resumed work or increased their load, and the overall operating rate fluctuated and increased during the month. The average load has increased from around 61% to over 81%. Due to the abundant supply of goods in the market, at the beginning of the month, most enterprises’ warehousing took on the low level in the early stage, and after accumulating inventory within the month, the pressure gradually increased. Due to the impact of low profit margins in early September, the profit margins of merchants and aggregators have been further compressed. The supply side has a heavy burden on POM spot goods.

In terms of demand:

In October, the operating level of downstream POM enterprises in China was not high, and some enterprises needed to digest their pre stocking inventory. On market trading is weak, making it difficult to release POM consumption. At the same time, many business owners have bearish sentiment, and following up on operations is even more cautious. Overall, the demand side has poor support for POM spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

In October, the POM market fluctuated and fell. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has significantly increased, and the overall supply of goods on site is abundant. The supply pressure is gradually rising, and the concentration erupts at the end of the month. On the demand side, terminal enterprises are operating at a low level, and some raw material inventory has not yet been digested. Be cautious in purchasing operations and resist high priced sources. There is a lack of trading on the market, and competition among traders is intensifying. Overall, it is difficult to find both supply and demand side benefits in the current POM market, and it is expected that the POM market may continue to operate in a weak trend in the near future.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of domestic carbon black has increased this month. On October 31st, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 11100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.48% from the initial price of 11266 yuan/ton.

Cost side: In terms of raw materials, the market price of high-temperature coal tar has fluctuated this month. At the beginning of the month, there was a slight increase in prices, with high level consolidation and operation being the main focus. Downstream enterprises had a good atmosphere of restocking after the National Day holiday, and there was a strong atmosphere of speculation on the market. The supply of coal tar market was relatively tight, providing strong support for the cost of carbon black. Starting from the end of the decade, downstream deep processing enterprises continued to suffer losses, and the coal tar market prices began to decline, with differentiated market performance across different regions. The synchronous weakening of upstream coke supply and demand, weak market prices, and poor support for the cost of coal tar. Downstream deep processing enterprises continue to suffer losses, and there are obvious signs of a decline in operating rates. The enthusiasm for receiving coal tar is average.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and the overall inventory of the carbon black industry is currently low.

In terms of terminals, this month, with the end of the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” period, although tire companies have maintained a high level of construction, the demand in the terminal market is weak. From a demand perspective, supported by strong export orders, the tire industry has been operating at a high level this year. Recently, downstream tire companies have some inventory support, and most inquiries in the market are mainly at low prices, while the demand still remains just in demand. Merchants from all walks of life have average purchasing enthusiasm, and the actual shipment volume is lower than last month.

In terms of import and export, according to customs data, China imported 24700 tons of carbon black in September 2023, an increase of 296.89% year-on-year and a decrease of 7.74% month on month; From January to September 2023, China imported a total of 199000 tons of carbon black, an increase of 189.13% compared to the same period last year, with an increase of approximately 132000 tons in imports. According to customs data, China’s carbon black exports in September 2023 were approximately 63100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.01% and a month on month decrease of 11.4%. From January to September 2023, China exported 530000 tons of carbon black, a decrease of 19.09% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume decreased by approximately 125000 tons.

Overall, the current carbon black market remains at a high level of operation, with downstream tire companies maintaining just in need of goods. The quoted prices in the carbon black market are strong, and it is expected that the carbon black market will operate weakly in the short term. The future trend focuses on downstream demand.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8438 yuan/ton on October 1st, and the average price on October 30th was 8207 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 2.74%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) on October 1st was 9612 yuan/ton, and the average price on October 30th was 9262 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 3.64%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 9087 yuan/ton on October 1st, and the average price on October 30th was 8650 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 4.81%.

In October, the price of polyethylene was mainly weak and downward. The price fell significantly in the first ten days. During the National Day holiday, the international crude oil market fell, and cost support for polyethylene weakened. In order to reduce inventory, the factory prices of petrochemical enterprises have been lowered, and traders have adjusted accordingly. After the holiday, market demand fell short of expectations, and in order to promote transactions, merchants often reduced prices to sell. The shutdown and maintenance of enterprises have decreased, and the supply of polyethylene is expected to increase. The demand for agricultural film is in peak season, and the market procurement is mainly based on hard demand. The demand for packaging film during the E-commerce Festival is expected to be positive.

On October 30th, polyethylene l2401 rose 1.08% to close at 8169. Polyethylene futures have an upward trend, which may boost the spot price of polyethylene.

After November, the peak season for agricultural film will end, and the demand side may come under pressure. It is expected that polyethylene will be slightly adjusted as the main component.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of baking soda has been weak and consolidating this month, with an average market price of 2275 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 2150 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price has decreased by 5.49%, a year-on-year decrease of 17.31%. On October 26th, the baking soda commodity index was 142.70, a decrease of 0.83 points from yesterday, a decrease of 39.49% from the cycle’s highest point of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and a 61.66% increase from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2020 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Business Society. The current price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1900-2200 yuan/ton, which is the mainstream market quotation. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of soda ash was relatively weak in October. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 3090 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the end of the month was around 2550 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 17.48%, a decrease of 4.14% compared to the same period last year.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of baking soda has recently consolidated and operated, with sufficient supply of baking soda. The upstream raw material of soda ash has recently been weak, and downstream pharmaceutical, textile, food and other aspects of baking soda need to be mainly purchased on demand in the near future. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will be mainly consolidated and operated in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.