Introduction: Cyclohexane is an organic compound that is a colorless and pungent liquid. It is insoluble in water and soluble in most organic solvents such as ethanol, benzene, and acetone. It is a non corrosive and flammable liquid. Usage: Generally used as a general solvent, standard substance for chromatographic analysis, and for organic synthesis. It can be applied in resins, coatings, fats, paraffin oils, and can also prepare organic compounds such as cyclohexanol and cyclohexanone.

In 2023, the domestic cyclohexane market showed an “M” trend. The average price at the beginning of the year was 7033.33 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 7116.67 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 1.18%. The overall increase was not significant, with a low price of 6500 yuan/ton in July and a high price of around 7500 yuan/ton in mid October.

From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the cyclohexane market in 2023 showed more gains and less losses. There was a clear upward trend in the first and third quarters, with the decline concentrated in the second and fourth quarters. The first quarter continued until April, and cyclohexane showed an upward trend. The upstream cost side supported it, while the downstream demand was still acceptable. In 2023, China took a series of measures to restore and expand consumption, and the upstream pure benzene was relatively driven by national policies, The lowest price for upstream pure benzene in 2023 was in June, and the highest price was in September, which is similar to the cyclohexane market. The column chart of cyclohexane also shows that the overall market of cyclohexane is greatly affected by upstream factors.

Prediction of the market trend of cyclohexane in 2024:

From the annual increase in 2023, it can be seen that the demand for cyclohexane in the market is currently in a state of supply-demand balance. Although there has been some expansion in production capacity, downstream consumption is stable, the supply side is relatively sufficient, and there is certain pressure on market operation. The demand in the downstream market is insufficient, and it may maintain a low consolidation level.

In terms of supply: From previous years’ data, it can be seen that the overall price fluctuation range of cyclohexane is very limited. Although the price has risen and fallen again, the overall range of rise and fall is very small. Therefore, it can be concluded that the supply of cyclohexane in the market is sufficient and in a state of supply-demand balance. Most buyers mainly purchase small orders. Currently, there is no news of cyclohexane plant maintenance, and the operating rate is still at a high level. The Spring Festival of 2024 is approaching, Downstream markets are expected to stock up in advance, with essential procurement supporting the price of cyclohexane. The fluctuation of cyclohexane prices is also greatly affected by upstream pure benzene, and currently the upstream is in a volatile trend with limited decline. January is the off-season for demand, and the Spring Festival is in early February. It is expected to maintain a rebound before the holiday.

In terms of cost: January is in the off-season of demand, and the global crude oil market remains weak. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for crude oil in the market will remain optimistic. The Spring Festival falls in early February, and consumption increases during the holiday period, which helps to maintain a rebound in prices and to some extent boost the upstream market. The domestic pure benzene market is mainly volatile, and in 2024, pure benzene will continue to expand production, with plans for new facilities of 2 million tons, and the overall supply of the industry will increase, The market still needs to pay attention to the trend of crude oil, and the support for raw material costs in the cyclohexane market is limited.

In terms of demand: Cyclohexane can be used as a solvent for rubber, coatings, and lacquers. It is widely used as a diluent and oil extractant for adhesives. It is expected that the downstream demand will remain at the previous level in 2024, and downstream caprolactam will maintain a low level of consolidation. Plant maintenance will gradually start in 2024, and the overall supply of the industry will increase. The demand will continue to be in the off-season, and the market will mainly operate under pressure. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will experience narrow fluctuations in the first half of 2024, In terms of demand, rigid procurement is the main focus. With the recovery of the domestic economy, household consumption has improved, and terminal demand has increased. Terminal consumption will be boosted, and the demand for cyclohexane will also increase.

In summary, the cyclohexane analyst from Business Society believes that in recent years, the cyclohexane market has rarely seen a sharp rise or fall, with sufficient supply and stable demand. However, the cyclohexane market is lukewarm and the overall market supply and demand balance is the main factor. The price changes of pure benzene directly affect the downstream trend of cyclohexane, and it is necessary to constantly monitor the upstream trend.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of January 9, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1056 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1, 2023 (reference price of 1034 yuan/ton), the price increased by 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.13%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in the beginning of 2024, the domestic phosphate ore market has experienced an upward trend. In early January, the overall domestic phosphate ore market rose by over 2%. Entering the new year, some mining companies in China have begun to implement new landing ore prices. Guizhou, Sichuan, and Guangxi regions have raised the prices of medium and high-grade phosphate ore by about 20-50 yuan/ton. Currently, the supply of phosphate ore in the field is still tight, with some areas experiencing tight spot prices. Downstream demand for phosphate ore is mainly for procurement of essential goods. As of January 9th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1100 yuan/ton, with some regions offering higher prices around 1150 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to block ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated based on actual orders.

Prediction of future market for phosphate ore

At present, the trading atmosphere in the domestic phosphate ore market is mild, and the mentality of the industry is good. Some downstream companies prepare goods before the new year and purchase according to the quantity. According to the phosphate ore data analyst of Business Society, the domestic phosphate ore market is mainly stable in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the influence of factors such as demand and downstream shipment situation.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol in the Shandong region fluctuated and increased this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong region increased from 12950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12962.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.10%. Weekend prices increased by 35.50% year-on-year. On January 7th, the isooctanol commodity index was 95.31, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 30.68% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 171.15% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Insufficient upstream support, average downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream manufacturers of Shandong isooctanol have slightly increased their quotations this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 6868.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6638.25 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 3.35%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.45% in weekend prices. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market situation of isooctanol, the DOP market price fluctuated and fell this week. The DOP price dropped from 12091.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12058.33 yuan/ton on the weekend, a decrease of 0.28%, and the weekend price increased by 22.42% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol.

Future prospects

In mid to late January, the market for isooctanol in Shandong may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream DOP market has slightly declined, and downstream demand is average. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic Isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the sulfur price trend in East China continued to decline this week. On January 5th, the sulfur price was 1013.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.00% compared to January 1st, which was 1066.67 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 4.40% compared to the previous month.

This week, the sulfur market continued to decline, and the demand side of the terminal consumer market came to an end. Downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened, and most factories focused on demand, resulting in a sluggish market trading atmosphere; On the supply side, some refineries in Shandong region have increased their burden on equipment, leading to an increase in factory inventory and sufficient supply of goods in the market. At the same time, there is a high expectation of goods arriving at the port this month, leading to a strong bearish sentiment in the market and an increasing intention to discharge inventory. As a result, the sulfur prices of refineries continue to decrease. As of the 5th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is around 950-1040 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur ranges from 900 to 1130 yuan/ton.

Downstream market trends in the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market has significantly declined, with the daily average price of domestic sulfuric acid on January 5th at 252.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.85% compared to the price of 274.00 yuan/ton on January 1st. The on-site equipment operates stably, the market supply is sufficient, and enterprises are actively shipping. However, downstream demand is sluggish, and the market trading atmosphere is bearish. Acid companies have poor shipments, forcing the price of sulfuric acid to be lowered. At the same time, raw material prices have fallen, and cost bearish effects have weakened the sulfuric acid market.

The downstream ammonium phosphate market is operating weakly, with an average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate at 3303.33 yuan/ton on January 5th, a decrease of 1.98% compared to the price of 3370.00 yuan/ton on January 1st. The utilization rate of ammonium phosphate production capacity has decreased, and the market supply has decreased to some extent. However, downstream demand continues to be weak, with fewer market inquiries and weak on-site transactions. As a result, the sales pressure on enterprises has increased, and the price of ammonium phosphate has continued to decline.

Future Market Forecast

The sulfur analyst from Business Society believes that the sulfur plant on site is operating normally, the market supply of goods is stable, and with the continuous entry of port resources into the market, the pressure on sulfur sales is high. The terminal market transactions are flat, downstream demand is limited, and there is a lack of positive supply and demand. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will continue to operate weakly, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of December 29th, the price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate was 46000 yuan/ton. Overall, lithium iron phosphate showed a broad downward trend in December, with the mainstream price currently around 46000 yuan/ton. The price in early December was 52000 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of December was 46000 yuan/ton. The price for the entire month of December decreased by 11.54%. The dual pressure of cost and demand has put pressure on lithium iron phosphate to move forward.

In December, the price of lithium iron phosphate mainly experienced a narrow decline, with an overall price drop of 15.34% in November, reaching 12000 yuan/ton. Currently, lithium iron phosphate is showing a continuous downward trend, mainly influenced by upstream lithium carbonate, passively following the decline. Upstream lithium carbonate is experiencing a cliff like decline. Lithium iron phosphate is under tremendous cost pressure, with almost no support on the cost side. Currently, downstream demand has not met expectations, and demand is clearly insufficient. Manufacturers continue to lower prices, Significant decline, continuous decrease in enterprise operating load, difficulty in improving industry demand, and low market sentiment.

Commodity index: On December 28th, the chemical index was 879 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.21% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.99% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Iron Phosphate believe that the market for lithium iron phosphate is mainly in a downward trend, with upstream lithium carbonate continuing to decline. There is insufficient support for cost side benefits, and downstream demand is weak, making it difficult for lithium iron phosphate to have a turning point in the short term.