1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of baking soda has been weak and consolidating this month, with an average market price of 2275 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 2150 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price has decreased by 5.49%, a year-on-year decrease of 17.31%. On October 26th, the baking soda commodity index was 142.70, a decrease of 0.83 points from yesterday, a decrease of 39.49% from the cycle’s highest point of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and a 61.66% increase from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2020 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Business Society. The current price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1900-2200 yuan/ton, which is the mainstream market quotation. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of soda ash was relatively weak in October. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 3090 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the end of the month was around 2550 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 17.48%, a decrease of 4.14% compared to the same period last year.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of baking soda has recently consolidated and operated, with sufficient supply of baking soda. The upstream raw material of soda ash has recently been weak, and downstream pharmaceutical, textile, food and other aspects of baking soda need to be mainly purchased on demand in the near future. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will be mainly consolidated and operated in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.

Cobalt prices have slightly declined this week

According to the cobalt market analysis system of the Business Society, as of October 26th, the cobalt price was 268800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.18% compared to October 20th, when the cobalt price was 272000 yuan/ton. The news of cobalt storage has stimulated the rise of cobalt prices, but the growth of new energy vehicle consumption has slowed down, and cobalt market demand is less than expected. This week, cobalt prices have slightly declined.

Slow growth in demand for new energy vehicles

LG New Energy released its third quarter financial report, with revenue increasing by 7.5% year-on-year. However, due to slowing demand in Europe, automakers adjusting production, and falling metal prices, sales in the quarter decreased by 6% month on month. Following Musk’s concerns that high interest rates may affect sales, power battery giant LG New Energy has also raised concerns that sales of electric vehicles are expected to slow down. An increasing number of automakers, including Tesla, General Motors, and Ford, are cautious about the demand for electric vehicles, fearing that high interest rates will increase financing costs and that slowing growth in major global economies may also hit car demand. The slowdown in demand for new energy vehicles has come faster than expected, especially in the high-end electric vehicle market. The expected slowdown in demand in the cobalt market has weakened the support for cobalt price increases, and cobalt prices have slightly declined.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the national harvest and storage news has stimulated a brief increase in demand in the cobalt market, and domestic cobalt prices have rebounded and increased. However, the growth of new energy vehicle sales has slowed down, and the demand growth in the cobalt market is less than expected, resulting in a slight decline in cobalt prices. Overall, the stable supply and demand in the cobalt market are lower than expected, and the expected volatility and consolidation of cobalt prices in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market for maleic anhydride has continued to decline recently. As of October 24th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7610.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.64% from the price of 7980.00 yuan/ton on October 16th.

The fluctuation and downward trend of crude oil market has limited support for the domestic maleic anhydride market

The international crude oil market has been fluctuating and declining recently. On the one hand, macroeconomic pressure and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike have not yet been determined, and the peak oil consumption season in North America is gradually coming to an end. The bearish demand situation has correspondingly suppressed the crude oil market. On the other hand, multiple countries have strengthened diplomatic efforts on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East to alleviate concerns about geopolitical issues. This news supports international oil prices; On the last hand, the United States announced a suspension of its sanctions against OPEC member states.

Hydrogenated benzene market fluctuates, and n-butane trend drops sharply

Upstream aspect: The hydrogenation benzene market has recently experienced a narrow range of fluctuations, with crude oil fluctuating downward and the industrial chain fluctuating less significantly. In the future, downstream demand still exists, and the market still follows the market trend. As of the 24th, the mainstream quotation range in the hydrogenation benzene market in East China is between 7950 to 8000 yuan/ton. Affected by the downward trend of crude oil fluctuations, the recent market for n-butane has significantly declined, and as of October 24th, the price in Shandong is around 5200-5400 yuan/ton.

The downward trend of unsaturated resin market has limited support for the domestic maleic anhydride market

Downstream: Recently, maleic anhydride has continued to decline, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream unsaturated resin market. In addition, the current resin supply is weak and trading is poor, resulting in an overall downward trend in the unsaturated resin market.

Business Society maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the current raw material of maleic anhydride, n-butane, has significantly declined, and the cost support for maleic anhydride is limited; Downstream unsaturated resin market is weak, operation is cautious. The fundamentals are weak, and the factory price of maleic anhydride continues to decline. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and dealers continue to fall. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may continue to decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream domestic market for neopentyl glycol increased from 10400.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10600.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.92%, and the weekend price increased by 4.95% year-on-year. On October 22, the new pentanediol commodity index was 51.08, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 50.70% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 18.65% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the mainstream market prices of new pentanediol have fluctuated.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price slightly decreased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market dropped from 8833.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8566.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.02%, and the weekend price increased by 26.60% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a negative impact on the price of new pentanediol.

3、 Future prospects

In late October, the trend of the new pentanediol market may fluctuate slightly and decline mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene for the week from October 13 to October 20, 2023 was lowered. Last weekend, it was 6753.75 yuan/ton, and this weekend it was 6683.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04%.

In terms of crude oil, the conflict between Pakistan and Israel has continued to escalate, and supply concerns have intensified. International crude oil futures saw a significant jump on Thursday. Affected by this, on October 20th, the domestic SC crude oil market rose, with the main contract settling at 660.5 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.9%. On a macro level, the Federal Reserve hinted that interest rate hikes may be suspended in November, easing demand concerns. On the supply side, the market’s focus is on the Palestinian Israeli conflict. Iran’s foreign minister has called for an oil ban on Israel, which has escalated sentiment towards Israel’s boycott. The resulting geopolitical turmoil has pushed up the risk premium for crude oil. In addition, the United States’ agreement to implement a six-month exemption from the sanctions imposed on Venezuela did not alleviate supply side tensions. Prediction: In the short term, the situation in the mainland will fluctuate, and the positive supply side will continue to affect crude oil in the short term. It is expected that oil prices will rise but not fall easily.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene will continue to be at 7850 yuan/ton during this cycle.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7700 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7703 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7700 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On October 16th, the price of pure benzene was at 7822 yuan/ton, and on Friday (October 20th), the price of pure benzene was at 7809 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% compared to last week and a decrease of 1.46% compared to the same period last year

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times. After ten consecutive weeks of decline, it has risen for six consecutive weeks, slightly declined for three consecutive weeks, and fell for five consecutive weeks after two consecutive weeks of upward trend.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, crude oil rose during the week, while styrene market rose. However, due to the weak expectations of downstream demand, there was little change in prices during the week. The pure benzene market fluctuates within a narrow range, and the changes in the hydrogenation benzene market are relatively limited. Currently, the market price in East China is between 7850 to 7950 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as the price at the beginning of the week. Sinopec’s prices remained stable for the week, and the market mentality was relatively stable.

The overall changes in the pure benzene industry chain this week are limited, with narrow fluctuations in the hydrogenation benzene market. The overall fluctuations in the industry chain are relatively small, with mixed fluctuations in the auction prices of crude benzene during the week. However, the overall fluctuation is not significant, with most manufacturers’ prices declining and downstream on-demand procurement being the main focus. Shanxi region implemented a price increase of 6720 yuan/ton, with only a slight increase of 20 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the shutdown plan for coke ovens in Shanxi region has been steadily implemented, with local coke companies experiencing a decline in production and regional supply of crude benzene tightening. In terms of demand, the operating rate of hydrogenation benzene enterprises has not changed much recently, and there is still a demand for crude benzene. In the near future, there has been insufficient guidance on crude oil, and the market is mainly focused on changes in supply and demand. It is expected that the trend of the industrial chain will be relatively stable in the short term, with a narrow range of fluctuations being the main trend.