According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from December 18 to December 25, 2023, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China increased, reaching 7133 yuan/ton this week and 6866 yuan/ton last week, up 3.88%.

In terms of crude oil: Angola’s decision to withdraw from OPEC has raised doubts in the market about the sustainability of OPEC+production cuts, leading to a decline in international oil prices. On December 22nd, international crude oil futures closed lower, with the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States at $73.56 per barrel, a decrease of $0.33 or 0.5%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 78.80 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.36 US dollars or 0.5%.

On December 20th, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increased by 150 yuan/ton to 6950 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6950 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7053 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6950 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On December 18th, the price of pure benzene was 6837 yuan/ton, and on Friday (December 22nd), the price of pure benzene was 7080 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.76% from last week and 8.38% from the same period last year.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows a significant increase in the pure benzene market recently.

In terms of the industrial chain, the crude oil market fell first and then rose during the week, and the styrene market overall strengthened. Due to the impact of transportation, the delivery of pure benzene in East China is not good, and the bullish mentality of the spot market has increased. In terms of demand, downstream stocks have been replenished recently, and market trading has been active. Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene to 6950 yuan/ton and increased it by 150 yuan/ton within the week. Supported by multiple positive factors, the overall pure benzene market rose this week, driving a significant rebound in the hydrogenated benzene market.

This week, the upward trend in the pure benzene market has driven an overall positive atmosphere in the industrial chain. Sinopec’s listed price has been raised to 6950 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in the main production areas has risen to 7100-7200 yuan/ton. Market negotiations have performed well. In terms of supply, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has not changed much this week, and the overall supply of hydrogenated benzene is still acceptable. In terms of demand, downstream enterprises are expected to see a rebound in operating rates in the near future, and the overall improvement in market demand in the future has once again boosted market sentiment. In recent times, the hydrogenated benzene market has closely followed the trend of pure benzene, and in the future, it is expected that the hydrogenated benzene market will operate stronger in the short term, with upward potential, boosted by the favorable industrial chain.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the spot price of PVC carbide method SG5 remained basically stable this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic PVC price was 5698 yuan/ton, and the average weekend price was 5702 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.07% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic spot market price of PVC remained stable with an increase. At present, the spot market situation is still good, and the trading situation is average. The manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable. Downstream demand for goods is still cautious in actual transactions. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5550-5880 yuan/ton.

On December 21st, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $74.22 per barrel, a decrease of $0.33 or 0.4%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 79.16 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.5 US dollars or 0.7%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers have slightly increased this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic calcium carbide was 2966.67 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 2983.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.56% during the week. The upstream blue charcoal market is stable and weak, with average cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly increased, leading to an increase in demand for calcium carbide.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society PVC analysts believe that the PVC spot market has had average trading this week. Upstream calcium carbide has slightly increased, and the support situation is still acceptable. The demand for downstream real estate enterprises is average, and the market has a general demand for PVC spot goods, mainly on demand. It is expected that the PVC spot market will tend to strengthen and consolidate in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has recently fluctuated and fallen. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5000.00 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4975.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50%, a month on month decrease of 2.45%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.15%.

Upstream methanol situation: In terms of supply, there is currently not much pressure on power plant replenishment, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude. Most of the procurement plans have been postponed, resulting in low market activity. With the start of gas restrictions in Southwest China, there is a downward trend in domestic supply and demand, but there has been no significant change for the time being. Business Society Methanol Analyst predicts that the domestic methanol market is mainly weak and consolidating.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has experienced a slight decline, with downstream demand maintaining procurement and polyformaldehyde manufacturers shipping normally. Business Society polyformaldehyde analysts predict that prices may slightly decline.

Last week (December 11-17), the trading volume of viscose short fibers was light, and the market remained stable with stable prices. Manufacturer orders are being shipped, and sporadic new orders for essential needs are being completed. The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry is basically maintained, and the overall industry load is currently around 81.7%. Downstream cotton yarn shipments are facing difficulties, inventory is increasing, and most loss making operations are leading to increased plans for early holidays. Most market participants generally believe that prices may still be slightly lowered.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, last week (December 11-17), the overall price of viscose short fibers remained stable. As of December 17, the domestic ex factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm viscose short fibers was 13180 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous week’s price.

In terms of cost: Last week (December 11-17), the price of dissolved pulp remained strong and stable, with no new import prices for dissolved pulp. The negotiated transaction for broadleaf dissolved pulp was maintained at around 900 US dollars per ton, while the negotiated transaction for coniferous dissolved pulp was around 920 US dollars per ton. Domestic Hunan manufacturers produce dissolved slurry, Shandong equipment maintenance, quoted around 7500-7800 yuan/ton, stable price, actual order negotiation.

Supply and demand: The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry has remained stable this week, and the overall industry load is currently around 81.7%. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, sporadic orders for replenishment are needed, and there is a slight increase in inventory pressure on manufacturers. The human cotton yarn factory mainly consumes inventory, and the enthusiasm for replenishment is currently not high. The human cotton yarn is relatively flat, and there are not many new orders that require replenishment. Overall demand continues to be weak.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Last week (December 11-17), human cotton yarn continued its weak performance with low trading volume, and the overall focus of negotiations continued to decline slightly, especially in areas such as vortex spinning and airflow spinning. Sales are poor, overall shipments are slowing down, and the operating load of human cotton yarn is basically maintained at around 67%, with a slight increase in inventory. Most small factories maintain production in a state of slight losses, with some under significant pressure. The market lacks confidence in the later stage, and some small factories have partial intentions to reduce or stop production under pressure from multiple parties. The market generally believes that there is little improvement before the Spring Festival, or there is a possibility of further decline. As of December 17th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spinning, first-class product) was 17150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decrease of 0.15%.

Future Market Forecast

The price center of raw material dissolution slurry is strong, with strong cost support, but the market procurement enthusiasm is still not high. Downstream demand continues to be weak, with most small factories maintaining production in a slightly loss state. Some small factories are under great pressure, and some have intentions to reduce or stop production. The market lacks confidence in the later stage and is bearish on the market before the Spring Festival. Business Society analysts predict that in the short term, the market for viscose short fibers and artificial cotton yarn will continue to operate weakly, with prices mainly experiencing a slight bearish decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from December 12th to 19th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 15833 yuan/ton to 16000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.05% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 1.44%, and a year-on-year increase of 10.04%. The domestic aggregated MDI market first stabilized and then strengthened, with most suppliers completing their year-end tasks ahead of schedule and slow delivery rates. Coupled with maintenance cycles, the operating load remains low, and the downstream cold chain industry maintains stable output. The market is in short supply, boosting its momentum.

The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene has experienced slight fluctuations in the domestic pure benzene market. As of December 19th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 6837.17 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market is operating weakly. As of December 19th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyishe is 10600.00 yuan/ton. The cost side of MDI aggregation is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, as the annual handover month approaches, some contract orders have signed plans, creating a strong atmosphere of upward momentum. Although the follow-up ability on the demand side is still average, and with the recent rainy, snowy, and cold weather in the north, construction is hindered, and the support on the consumption side is insufficient. Recently, there are limitations on on-site warehouse orders, and there is a focus on following up on essential orders. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, as prices rise, there will be an increase in the willingness to ship some goods. We are waiting for the improvement of follow-up power. Business Society’s MDI analyst predicts that the domestic MDI market trend will be mainly strong and follow up.