According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has experienced a decline and then an increase since January. As of January 16th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7472 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% compared to the beginning of the month. The market fluctuations in this round are mainly influenced by cost factors.

In the crude oil market, the disturbance in the Middle East continues, and the situation is not clear. There is no sign of cooling in the short term, and oil prices still receive significant support. However, the US oil inventory has accumulated, and the market is once again concerned about economic weakness, which has significantly dragged down oil prices. Therefore, under the long short game, crude oil prices are mainly volatile, but there is still support for PTA costs. As of January 15th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $78.15 per barrel.

Since January, from the perspective of PTA supply side, the production capacity operating rate has remained stable with little change, and the industry operating rate has remained around 82%. With the restart of a 2 million ton PTA plant in South China on January 15th, products have been produced and the industry load has increased to around 84%. The pressure of sufficient supply of goods still exists. But next, the load of the 4.5 million ton PTA plant in South China will be adjusted from the original 80% to around 60%. The 3.6 million ton PTA unit of Yisheng New Materials Line 2 is scheduled for maintenance by the end of this month and is expected to last for one month. Negative load reduction and increased maintenance expectations, PTA stopped falling and rebounded. As of January 16th, the average market price in East China was 5794 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.29% from the beginning of the month.

Driven by a strong atmosphere in the raw material market, the downstream yarn market has improved. As of January 16th, the reference price for the pure polyester yarn market in Shandong Province was reported at 12475 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.40% from the beginning of the month. However, the order volume in spring and summer is not as high as in previous years, and as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, restocking is gradually coming to an end, making it difficult for prices to continue to rise. We maintain a wait-and-see attitude towards raw material procurement and mainly buy on demand.

Analysts from Business Society believe that warmer raw material costs have a greater impact on the price of polyester staple fibers. From the perspective of its own supply side, there is a maintenance plan for polyester staple fibers, but the supply of goods is still sufficient. Maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude downstream and not rush to purchase goods. Therefore, the price of polyester staple fibers may continue to rise in the short term, but the extent is limited by the drag of supply and demand.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has experienced fluctuations and declines, with most spot prices slightly decreasing overall. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of January 15th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14675 yuan/ton, with a 0% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has recently declined. The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased, and the cost side has remained stable with little movement. The caprolactam parking device is gradually resuming work and returning, and the market supply is gradually increasing. Downstream market conditions have declined, resulting in a decrease in purchase orders. The overall support for the cost side of PA6 has weakened.

In terms of supply:

Last week, there was a narrow adjustment in the load of PA6 production enterprises, with an average operating rate of nearly 79% in the range. The market supply has remained almost unchanged compared to the previous period, and there is ample supply of goods on the market. The inventory level is still not high, the pressure on suppliers is not significant, and there is still support for PA6 spot goods.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the weaving and spinning industries have seen a slight decline in load, but have generally remained stable, with average load positions of around 65% and 81%, respectively. The willingness of terminal enterprises to stock up is average, and their overall acceptance of high priced goods is not good. The operation leans towards buying on dips after market price drops, with trading concentrated near maintaining production demand, and overall support for the demand side of PA6 slices is average.

Future Market Forecast

Last week, the PA6 market fluctuated and fell narrowly. The price of caprolactam has slightly fallen, and the cost support for PA6 has weakened. The load of domestic polymerization plants remains basically unchanged, and the inventory position remains low. The current demand side operation is cautious, and market trading tends to be low-end. It is expected that the PA6 market will be weakly consolidated in the short term due to weak demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 12th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21600.00 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the beginning of the month and increased by 17.82% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 12th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 28500.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.01% from the beginning of the month and 16.33% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall prices of trichloromethane and hydrofluoric acid in China remained stable, and the overall cost of raw materials stabilized. The domestic R22 market prices continued to remain stable and move forward this week.

This week, the overall domestic price of hydrofluoric acid remained stable, supported by low inventory of enterprises with quota bottoming out. Some enterprises slightly increased the factory price of R134a, driving the domestic R134a price to be slightly stronger.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society refrigerant analysts believe that the quota plan has not yet been implemented, and the mentality of enterprises to support prices remains unchanged. In the short term, the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will continue to remain strong.

In the 2023 East China lead ingot market, the average price at the beginning of the year was 15745 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 15695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% annually. The lowest point of the year appeared on June 2nd at 14950 yuan/ton, and the highest point of the year appeared on September 20th at 16915 yuan/ton, with a maximum amplitude of 13.14%. The overall trend can be divided into two stages: in the first half of the year, it fluctuated weakly, and in the second half, it first rose and then fell.

The lead price trend chart from 2020 to 2022 shows that the price trend of lead ingots has not fluctuated much in the past three years, and the overall trend has maintained a wide range of fluctuations. The distinction between peak and off peak seasons is not so obvious, and most of them follow the overall market fluctuations. The main reason for this trend is that lead is a recyclable metal, and recycled lead in China has developed rapidly in the past two years, with annual production increasing from 2.2 million tons in 2018 to 3.66 million tons in 2021. Therefore, the overall supply of lead ingots in China is relatively sufficient, and the price fluctuation range is limited.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. In 2023, there were 6 months of decline and 6 months of increase, with the largest decline occurring in January, a decrease of 3.84%; The largest increase occurred in July, with a rise of 3.78%. Overall, the monthly fluctuations throughout the year are all within 4%, with relatively small market fluctuations and maintaining a broad range of fluctuations.

Looking back on 2023

In the first half of 2023, lead prices remained weak and volatile, and lead supply continued to increase. However, during the same period, downstream demand did not relax, and under the influence of loose supply, lead ingots operated weakly. In January, the metal market was generally under pressure, with Shanghai lead falling for 11 consecutive days, domestic inventories rising significantly, and lead prices falling under pressure. The market was weak and volatile from February to June, with an operating range of 14950-15300 yuan/ton.

In the second half of the year, lead prices have been rising for three consecutive months, with a cumulative increase of 7.55%. On September 20th, they reached a nearly four-year high of 16915 yuan/ton. In the second half of the year, the supply of primary lead is tight, while the demand for recycled lead is in short supply due to the shortage of raw materials and waste batteries, and the price has risen to a high level within 5 years. The continuous increase in the cost of recycled lead has driven the lead ingot market upwards. After entering the traditional peak season, the growth in exports once again boosted the sentiment of the lead ingot market. In the later stage, with the continuous release of recycled lead production capacity and the end of the traditional peak season, lead prices have fallen significantly.

Looking ahead to 2024:

Supply: Lead supply maintains incremental growth

China surpassed the United States to become the world’s largest producer of refined lead in 2003 and has remained at the top. The production of domestic lead ingots is mainly divided into primary lead and recycled lead. Based on current statistical data, the production of primary lead and recycled lead is on the rise in 2023. However, in 2024, both primary lead and recycled lead will have new production capacity. Therefore, we expect that the supply of domestic lead ingots will remain loose in 2024.

Requirement: Essential needs still exist

The downstream applications of lead mainly include lead-acid batteries, lead oxide, lead alloys, lead salts, and cables. Among them, lead-acid batteries are the main field of lead consumption, accounting for more than 80%. China is a major producer, consumer, and exporter of lead-acid batteries, so paying attention to data such as the production of lead-acid batteries can provide a good understanding of downstream demand for lead. The production of lead-acid batteries in China has been increasing year by year from 2015 to 2021. It reached its lowest point in 2018 and has since continued to rise, with a relatively fast growth rate. Production slightly declined in 2022 and continued to rise in 2023. From the data of battery production, it can be seen that downstream markets still have good demand support for the domestic lead ingot market.

The overall operating rate of the battery industry is low in 2023, but due to the large number of new devices put into operation this year, the overall production of batteries is still on the rise. Since 2020, China’s battery export volume has been increasing year by year, with statistical data showing a cumulative export volume of 222 million units from January to November 2023, a year-on-year increase of 13.14%. According to the sub item data, the proportion of battery exports is on the rise, and the improvement in automobile sales in Europe, America, and India continues to be beneficial for future battery exports. In terms of domestic demand, the main focus is still on two wheeled electric vehicles, which have shown relatively stable performance. Overall, the performance of terminal demand in the lead ingot market is still good, and there is still support for essential needs.

Future outlook: From a purely supply and demand perspective, the lead ingot market has not shown any significant positive or negative trends, and overall performance is relatively stable. But at the end of 2023, as the price of waste batteries continued to rise, it drove up the primary lead market. Currently, the price of waste batteries is still at a high level, and the cost support for the lead ingot market is still strong. Lead is a commodity that performs significantly during the off peak season. Generally, June to October is a seasonal peak season, and an increase in demand will drive up lead prices. Overall, in 2024, lead prices will maintain a range of fluctuations, with some upward potential in peak season prices.

Related data:

In November 2023, China’s automobile production and sales reached 3.093 million and 2.97 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 29.4% and 27.4%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.074 million and 1.026 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 39.2% and 30%.

On December 18th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the national lead production in November 2023 was 653000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3%.

According to data from the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) on December 21, the global lead market supply gap narrowed to 13800 tons in October 2023 and 16100 tons in September; From January to October 2023, there was an oversupply of 40000 tons in the global lead market, and from January to October 2023, there was a shortage of 213000 tons in the global lead market.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of refined lead (including unrefined refined lead) in China in November 2023 was 20.75 tons, a decrease of 64.6% month on month and 51.5% year-on-year.

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that from January to October 2023, global refined lead production was 12.2557 million tons, consumption was 12.2826 million tons, and supply was in short supply of 26900 tons. From January to October 2023, the global lead ore production was 4.1682 million tons. In October 2023, the global refined lead production was 1.2428 million tons, with a consumption of 1.2561 million tons and a supply shortage of 13300 tons. In October 2023, the global lead ore production was 434700 tons.

Introduction: Cyclohexane is an organic compound that is a colorless and pungent liquid. It is insoluble in water and soluble in most organic solvents such as ethanol, benzene, and acetone. It is a non corrosive and flammable liquid. Usage: Generally used as a general solvent, standard substance for chromatographic analysis, and for organic synthesis. It can be applied in resins, coatings, fats, paraffin oils, and can also prepare organic compounds such as cyclohexanol and cyclohexanone.

In 2023, the domestic cyclohexane market showed an “M” trend. The average price at the beginning of the year was 7033.33 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 7116.67 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 1.18%. The overall increase was not significant, with a low price of 6500 yuan/ton in July and a high price of around 7500 yuan/ton in mid October.

From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the cyclohexane market in 2023 showed more gains and less losses. There was a clear upward trend in the first and third quarters, with the decline concentrated in the second and fourth quarters. The first quarter continued until April, and cyclohexane showed an upward trend. The upstream cost side supported it, while the downstream demand was still acceptable. In 2023, China took a series of measures to restore and expand consumption, and the upstream pure benzene was relatively driven by national policies, The lowest price for upstream pure benzene in 2023 was in June, and the highest price was in September, which is similar to the cyclohexane market. The column chart of cyclohexane also shows that the overall market of cyclohexane is greatly affected by upstream factors.

Prediction of the market trend of cyclohexane in 2024:

From the annual increase in 2023, it can be seen that the demand for cyclohexane in the market is currently in a state of supply-demand balance. Although there has been some expansion in production capacity, downstream consumption is stable, the supply side is relatively sufficient, and there is certain pressure on market operation. The demand in the downstream market is insufficient, and it may maintain a low consolidation level.

In terms of supply: From previous years’ data, it can be seen that the overall price fluctuation range of cyclohexane is very limited. Although the price has risen and fallen again, the overall range of rise and fall is very small. Therefore, it can be concluded that the supply of cyclohexane in the market is sufficient and in a state of supply-demand balance. Most buyers mainly purchase small orders. Currently, there is no news of cyclohexane plant maintenance, and the operating rate is still at a high level. The Spring Festival of 2024 is approaching, Downstream markets are expected to stock up in advance, with essential procurement supporting the price of cyclohexane. The fluctuation of cyclohexane prices is also greatly affected by upstream pure benzene, and currently the upstream is in a volatile trend with limited decline. January is the off-season for demand, and the Spring Festival is in early February. It is expected to maintain a rebound before the holiday.

In terms of cost: January is in the off-season of demand, and the global crude oil market remains weak. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for crude oil in the market will remain optimistic. The Spring Festival falls in early February, and consumption increases during the holiday period, which helps to maintain a rebound in prices and to some extent boost the upstream market. The domestic pure benzene market is mainly volatile, and in 2024, pure benzene will continue to expand production, with plans for new facilities of 2 million tons, and the overall supply of the industry will increase, The market still needs to pay attention to the trend of crude oil, and the support for raw material costs in the cyclohexane market is limited.

In terms of demand: Cyclohexane can be used as a solvent for rubber, coatings, and lacquers. It is widely used as a diluent and oil extractant for adhesives. It is expected that the downstream demand will remain at the previous level in 2024, and downstream caprolactam will maintain a low level of consolidation. Plant maintenance will gradually start in 2024, and the overall supply of the industry will increase. The demand will continue to be in the off-season, and the market will mainly operate under pressure. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will experience narrow fluctuations in the first half of 2024, In terms of demand, rigid procurement is the main focus. With the recovery of the domestic economy, household consumption has improved, and terminal demand has increased. Terminal consumption will be boosted, and the demand for cyclohexane will also increase.

In summary, the cyclohexane analyst from Business Society believes that in recent years, the cyclohexane market has rarely seen a sharp rise or fall, with sufficient supply and stable demand. However, the cyclohexane market is lukewarm and the overall market supply and demand balance is the main factor. The price changes of pure benzene directly affect the downstream trend of cyclohexane, and it is necessary to constantly monitor the upstream trend.