Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has continued to weaken, with most spot prices fluctuating and falling. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of March 22, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14800 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -2.47% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has continued to decline recently. The price of raw material pure benzene fluctuates and consolidates, with average cost support. In terms of supply, enterprises are operating at a high level and inventory levels are rising. At present, the caprolactam market has sufficient supply, limited downstream demand, and a relatively empty market. The cost support of caprolactam for PA6 continues to weaken.

In terms of supply: Recently, the load of PA6 production enterprises has remained stable, with an average operating rate of around 83%. The market supply has remained relatively stable compared to the previous period, and the on-site supply of goods is relatively abundant. The inventory level has stabilized, and the supply pressure has not increased significantly, providing moderate support for PA6 spot goods.

In terms of demand: In terms of downstream, the current situation of the main downstream industries is still good. The operating rate of spinning has increased to around 84%, and the weaving load is around 72%. Due to the early decline in the price of PA6, there has been a lack of willingness to stock up recently, and a wait-and-see attitude towards the decline. Be cautious in trading on the exchange. Poor support for PA6 demand side.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the PA6 market has continued to decline. The price of caprolactam has fallen, weakening the cost support for PA6. Domestic polymerization plants have a large and stable load, while terminal enterprises need to stock up and purchase with caution. There is currently a lack of bullish news on the market, and it is expected that the PA6 market may continue to operate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the center of gravity of the yellow phosphorus market has slightly shifted this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 22760 yuan/ton last Thursday, and 22893.33 yuan/ton this Thursday, with a price increase of 0.59%.

2、 Market analysis

The focus of the yellow phosphorus market has slightly shifted upwards this week. The trading situation of yellow phosphorus on the market is average. Driving on site is relatively stable. Manufacturers are mainly holding up prices, while the yellow phosphorus market has rebounded and stopped falling. Downstream procurement is cautious, while upstream and downstream are relatively stagnant, with a focus on wait-and-see. Overall, the market situation for yellow phosphorus is average. As of now, the market price for yellow phosphorus is around 22700-23300 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, the phosphate ore market has been consolidating and operating within the range this week. As of March 21, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 1062 yuan/ton, which is the same as March 14. The phosphorus ore data analyst from Business Society believes that the trading atmosphere in the domestic phosphorus ore market is relatively light, and in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market is mainly stable with minor fluctuations.

In terms of coke, the coke market in Shandong ports is operating weakly, with a quasi first level outbound price of around 1930-1980 yuan/ton and a first level outbound price of 2030-2080 yuan/ton. After the sixth round of drop in the spot market, the port spot market is operating weakly, and traders have average intentions to gather at the port. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the inventory of the two ports fluctuates narrowly. On March 21st, it costs 165 yuan/ton from Xiaoyi to Rizhao Port, and 165 yuan/ton from Jiexiu to Rizhao Port.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid first fell and then rose, and overall, the price has slightly declined. The average price of domestic hot process phosphoric acid market was 6600 yuan/ton last Thursday, and 6580 yuan/ton this Thursday, with a price drop of 0.30%. According to the phosphoric acid analyst from Business Society, the current demand in the hot process phosphoric acid market is average, and the trading atmosphere in the market is light. The industry is mainly in a wait-and-see attitude.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that the consolidation of upstream phosphate ore and weak operation of the coke market currently result in average cost support. The downstream phosphoric acid market prices have slightly declined. Overall, the trading volume in the yellow phosphorus market is average, while downstream markets are mostly wait-and-see. It is expected that in the short term, the yellow phosphorus market will temporarily stabilize and operate, and actual transactions will be discussed on a single basis.

Recently, the polyvinyl alcohol market has been fluctuating and consolidating. As of March 19th, the benchmark price of polyvinyl alcohol at Shengyishe was 12300 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.54% compared to the beginning of this month (12233 yuan/ton). Overall, the trend of polyvinyl alcohol is relatively warm, with a concentration of spot goods in the market and limited short-term circulation that may support the market. Shipping at high prices in the market maintains a restraining effect on market uplift.

In terms of supply:

The mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu have not fully opened their devices.

The current market for vinyl acetate continues to be dominated by mainstream manufacturers in North and South China, while at the same time, some manufacturers are operating under lockdowns. As a result, the overall spot resources in the market are scarce, and the focus of negotiations has shifted upwards. As of March 20th, the benchmark price of ethyl acetate for Business Society is 6516.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.49% compared to the beginning of this month (6683.33 yuan/ton).

Overall, there is a weak supply side in the polyvinyl alcohol market, with a decrease in spot supply compared to previous average levels and low inventory levels. In the face of a shortage of enterprise goods, there is a strong intention to push up prices through quotations

In terms of demand:

The overall demand for polyvinyl alcohol downstream has not improved significantly, and intermediaries are stocking according to demand. Therefore, the market inquiry enthusiasm has increased, and the trading atmosphere is relatively warm. It can be seen that the supply is stable in the face of favorable market support, and the mentality of cargo holders is supported, so the quoted price has been raised.

Future Market Forecast:

Overall, the current market is operating at a low load, and some companies have been hindered in long-term shipments. The market is experiencing a shortage of spot goods, and there is little support for the short-term supply and cost of polyvinyl alcohol. The phased replenishment of demand is relatively active, but the battery life is not optimistic. Coupled with the restart of regional facilities and the increasing trend of spot inventory, the supply and demand sides will continue to play games. Analysts from Business Society predict that the price of polyvinyl alcohol will mainly consolidate in the near future, with a market transaction price of around 11900-13000 yuan/ton in 1799.

Acetic anhydride prices have fluctuated and fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 20th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04% from the price of 5512.50 yuan/ton on March 13th; Compared to March 10th, the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and increased by 5325 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41%. In mid month, the price of acetic acid first rose and then fell, and the cost of acetic anhydride fluctuated and increased; This week, the production of acetic anhydride enterprises has been stable, with sufficient supply of acetic anhydride. The inventory of acetic anhydride manufacturers is low, and downstream demand is weak. The price of acetic anhydride rose first and then fell this week.

The price of acetic acid rose first and then fell this week

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid commodity market in Shengyishe, as of March 20th, the price of acetic acid was 3050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.61% from the price of 3100 yuan/ton on March 13th; Compared to March 10th, the price of acetic acid has stabilized at 3050 yuan/ton. The acetic acid manufacturer is operating steadily and the overall production is at a high level. The downstream operating profit of acetic acid is low, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers is poor, and the bearish mentality in the acetic acid market is widespread. The driving force for the cost increase of acetic anhydride is weakened, and downward pressure still exists.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society Acetic Anhydride Data, in terms of raw materials, the price of acetic acid first rose and then fell, and the cost support for acetic anhydride decreased; In terms of supply, acetic anhydride manufacturers have stable production and sufficient supply of acetic anhydride; In terms of demand, downstream demand is poor, and downstream customers have a strong wait-and-see attitude. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride will decrease, with sufficient supply and weak demand; Expect the price of acetic anhydride to fluctuate and fall in the future.

1、 Price trend

The downstream market demand is sluggish, and the pressure on potassium chloride to sell has increased. This week, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has dropped significantly. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of potassium chloride has dropped from 2600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2462.5 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 5.29% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.41%.

2、 Market analysis

According to data statistics, the final price of 60% potassium in Qinghai over the weekend is around 2300-2400 yuan/ton, with limited new transactions. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is around 2300 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port is around 2400-2500 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2200 yuan/ton. During the week, the prices of mainstream potassium chloride distributors decreased slightly. Anhui Badou Weekend’s potassium chloride distributor quoted 2350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe Weekend Potassium Chloride Distribution quoted 2400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market has stabilized at a low level this week, with a price of 7300 yuan/ton. The weekend price fell by 19.78% year-on-year. This week, the market price of potassium nitrate stabilized at a low level, with a price of 5087.50 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price decreased by 13.77% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride continues to be sluggish, with manufacturers mainly purchasing on demand.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In late March, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall narrowly, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of salt lakes and Zangge potassium chloride are temporarily stable, but new transactions are limited. The downstream market for potassium chloride continues to decline, with weakened downstream demand and a focus on essential procurement. Recently, international potassium fertilizer has also shown a weak trend. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.