1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride remained stable this week, with a price of 3080.00 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 21.28%. On December 10th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 97.78, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 44.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 67.86% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-03-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

The prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have remained stable this week.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market has stabilized at a high level this week, with a price of 7550.00 yuan/ton. The weekend price fell by 18.16% year-on-year. This week, the market price of potassium nitrate stabilized at a high level, with a price of 5475.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price decreased by 6.81% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride is consolidating at a high level, and downstream customers have average demand for potassium chloride.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to late December, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall narrowly, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride is consolidating at a high level, with average downstream demand and mainly focused on purchasing for immediate needs. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8100 yuan/ton on December 4th, and the average price on December 8th was 8090 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.12% in the quotation during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9125 yuan/ton on December 4th, and the average price on December 8th was 9107 yuan/ton, during which the quotation fell by 0.19%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8550 yuan/ton on December 4th, and the average price on December 8th was 8550 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation remained stable.

This week, the polyethylene market saw a narrow adjustment in operation. On the cost side, international crude oil has declined, and the support for polyethylene on the cost side has weakened. The maintenance equipment of petrochemical enterprises has decreased compared to the previous period, and the supply of polyethylene is still sufficient. In addition, there is an expectation of an increase in imported goods. Agricultural film and pipe materials are in the off-season of demand, with limited new orders for packaging film, and a poor transaction atmosphere. Downstream purchases are mainly based on low demand, and procurement is relatively cautious. Traders adjust their offers and have a strong willingness to sell at a discounted price. As the weekend approaches, market sentiment rebounds and there is a slight upward trend in quotations, but there is limited room for upward adjustment.

On December 8th, the opening price of the polyethylene l2401 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 7960 yuan, the closing price was 8057 yuan, an increase of 102 yuan, the highest was 8074 yuan, the lowest was 7940 yuan, an increase of 1.28%.

The polyethylene market is oversupplied with flat demand, and it is expected that polyethylene may fluctuate weakly.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde has recently fluctuated and fallen. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde was 5062.50 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde was 5037.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49%, a month on month decrease of 1.71%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.00%.

Upstream methanol situation: The methanol market has rebounded and fluctuated. In terms of supply, global coal supply is stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support coal prices to operate at high levels; In terms of demand, the overall pressure on inventory in power plants is relatively low. Currently, the terminal mainly relies on long-term replenishment and replenishes inventory according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is wait-and-see. The domestic methanol market situation is mainly sorted out.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has experienced a slight decline, with downstream demand maintaining procurement and polyformaldehyde manufacturers shipping normally. Business Society polyformaldehyde analysts predict that prices may slightly decline.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of December 6, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 7533 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as December 1, 2023. Compared with November 1, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 8100 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 567 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that from the beginning of December (12.01-12.06), the domestic butanone market as a whole showed a stable consolidation and operation trend. At the beginning of the month, the supply and demand side of the butanone market was relatively calm, and the overall trading atmosphere on the market was relatively quiet. Downstream demand continued to be weak, and the overall inventory of downstream remained tight. Some butanone suppliers adjusted prices narrowly based on their own inventory situation, and the overall market change was not significant. As of December 6th, the domestic butanone market price was around 7100-7700 yuan/ton, and the high-end price was around 7800 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast and Analysis of Butanone

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of butanone on the exchange is weak, and the overall supply and demand transmission on the exchange is slightly deadlocked. Business Society butanone data analyst predicts that in the short term, the butanone market will mostly be weak with slight adjustments, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

The price of ethylene oxide decreased in November

In November, the price of ethylene oxide decreased by 5.88%. According to data from Business Society, as of November 30th, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic market was 6400 yuan/ton; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6400 yuan/ton externally; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6500 yuan/ton; The listed price of epoxy ethane in North China is 6400-6500 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in Northeast China is 6250 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the central China market is 6500 yuan/ton.

The main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer is generally affected by terminal demand, but the recent demand is weak, which generally supports the price of ethylene oxide.

Loose raw material prices and weakened cost support

The price of raw material ethylene has begun to show a weak market consolidation, and the cost of ethylene oxide is generally supported. On November 27th, the central parity rate (CFR) for Northeast Asia Ethylene Gold was $861 per ton, a decrease of $20 per ton from the central parity rate of $881 per ton at the beginning of the month (November 1st).

Stable price of ethylene oxide in December

Short term crude oil decline, weak and stable ethylene prices, and weak cost side of ethylene oxide; The average demand for downstream products has led to a recent decline in the price of ethylene oxide. However, as profits expand towards negative values, there is an expectation of a decrease in the operating rate of ethylene oxide, and the downward space gradually narrows. It is expected that in December, with the expected recovery of cost, the price of ethylene oxide will stop falling and stabilize, with a high probability of sideways fluctuations.