According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 4, 2023, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 14320 yuan/ton. Compared with November 26 (organic silicon DMC reference 14500 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.24%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in the recent period (11.26-12.04), the overall market situation of domestic organic silicon DMC has shown a weak downward trend. The downstream demand for organic silicon DMC continues to be weak, and the support provided by the demand side for organic silicon DMC is limited. At the end of November, the focus of the domestic organic silicon DMC market has been continuously adjusted downwards. The price of organic silicon DMC in Shandong region has dropped to around 14000 yuan/ton, and the price of organic silicon DMC in other regions has also dropped to around 14200-14500 yuan/ton. As of December 4th, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC is around 14000-14500 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the future trend of organic silicon DMC market

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the organic silicon DMC market is relatively light, and downstream stocking is relatively cautious. As we enter December, the organic silicon DMC market is generally stable and consolidating, but the cost side still puts some pressure on the market. The continuous downward risk of the organic silicon DMC market is relatively small, and the upcoming year-end stocking stage also gives the market some confidence. The organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mostly stabilize and consolidate, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic market price of ortho phthalic anhydride has slightly declined this week. As of the weekend, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 7487.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.17% from the initial price of 7500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 12.43%.

Supply side: The device operates stably and the supply of goods is normal

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a current operating rate of over 60%. The supply of phthalic anhydride goods is relatively sufficient, coupled with normal production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride goods. The price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride fluctuates at a low level, which has correspondingly impacted the neighboring phthalic anhydride market, causing a slight decline in the phthalic anhydride market.

Cost side: The price of ortho benzene has declined, and the cost support is insufficient

This week, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has declined. As of the end of the month, the price of ortho benzene was 7500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.85% from the beginning of the week’s price of 7800 yuan/ton. The supply of ortho benzene is normal, and the operation of on-site equipment is stable. In November, the crude oil price trend fell, the mixed xylene price fell, and the raw material price fell. As a result, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has declined, which has brought a negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market. The price trend of the phthalic anhydride market has declined.

Demand side: DOP market focuses on on-demand procurement

The downstream DOP market prices have fluctuated and declined, with prices as of the weekend at 11450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22% from the beginning of the week at 11475 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises have maintained their operations, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises are still operating at a loss, with plasticizer manufacturers operating at low loads and weak downstream demand. The mainstream price of DOP is 11400-11500 yuan/ton, and downstream plasticizer prices have slightly decreased. Overall demand has not improved, and the purchase of phthalic anhydride is average, The market price of phthalic anhydride remained weak this week.

Looking at the future market: In recent times, crude oil prices have fluctuated, and the price trend of ortho xylene has slightly declined. However, the downstream plasticizer market has been mainly volatile in recent times. In addition, the price of phthalic anhydride has fallen to the bottom space, and it is expected that the market price of ortho xylene may rise in the future.

In November, the domestic ammonia market fluctuated, with the Shandong region rising and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of the 30th, the monthly increase in liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 0.43%, but the amplitude exceeded 10%. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 3800-4000 yuan/ton.

From a supply side perspective, entering November, the market experienced a transition from tight to loose supply. In the first half of the month, the production of equipment decreased and the supply tightened, leading to an increase. Specifically, temporary failures frequently occur in equipment in Shandong region, and multiple sets of equipment are undergoing centralized maintenance. Due to environmental inspections in the Shanxi region, manufacturers have restricted production, increasing the pressure of tight supply in the entire northern region. In the second half of the month, with the resumption of production of some devices, the supply increased, downstream procurement decreased, and combined with the increase in ammonia emissions from large factories. Supply pressure continues to rise, manufacturers lower prices to ship, and the market follows suit.

On the demand side, downstream demand for liquid ammonia is stable, agricultural demand is growing moderately, and industrial demand is lagging behind. The main downstream products urea, ammonium chloride, and diammonium phosphate have all seen good growth rates. The maximum increase exceeds 4%. The overall demand is showing a moderate growth trend.

On the cost side, from an upstream perspective, coal prices have fluctuated and natural gas prices have risen significantly. While the cost side has provided support, it has also put cost pressure on ammonia enterprises, mainly because the increase in liquid ammonia has not kept up with the increase in natural gas prices.

Future Market Forecast:

According to analysts from Business Society, from a supply side perspective, manufacturers still have plans to resume production of their equipment in the later stage, and their inventory is at a medium to high level, entering the stage of destocking in the later stage. Supply pressure is difficult to alleviate in the short term. The demand side is intertwined, with agricultural demand performing well, but industrial demand is progressing slowly, and overall demand is not increasing significantly. Taking all factors into consideration, the more liquid ammonia there is in the near future, the more regions will follow suit and the market will have some room for decline.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of November 29th, the average price of PET water bottle grade is 7000 yuan/ton. The overall PET market price in November showed a downward trend, with a decrease of 1.96%. The overall market performance in November was mainly narrow and weak. Currently, the mainstream price is around 7000 yuan/ton, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced.

In November, the domestic PET price remained stable with a weak trend. At the beginning of November, the price was 7140 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 7000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.96% compared to the same period last month. The overall price in November was weak and downward, with a low focus on negotiations. Currently, the mainstream price is around 7000 yuan/ton, and downstream restocking is mainly based on demand. The negotiation atmosphere is average, with manufacturers mainly offering discounts and taking orders. Upstream cost support is average, and stable operation is the main focus.

Rubber and Plastic Commodity Index: On November 28, the rubber and plastic index was 669 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 36.89% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 26.70% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate steadily, with a weak trend in the short term. Currently, the mainstream price of PET is around 7000 yuan/ton.

The domestic propane market fluctuated and rose in November. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the average price of propane in Shandong’s market was 5490 yuan/ton on November 1st, and 5688 yuan/ton on November 28th, with a monthly increase of 3.6%, an increase of 0.28% compared to the same period last year.

As of November 28th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions of China are as follows:

Region/ November 28th

East China region/ 5400-5550 yuan/ton

North China region/ 5600-5750 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5550-5650 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 5500-5700 yuan/ton

In November, the domestic propane market first rose and then fell, with an overall increase. In early November, the on-site inventory of Shandong propane market was low, and the sales were smooth. With a sudden drop in temperature, downstream markets actively entered the market, while upstream prices rose. With the rise of propane prices to a high level, downstream resistance is evident, and there is a rebound in the increase. Entering mid November, the northern region experienced a surge in civilian demand due to the winter season, which steadily increased and supported the propane market. At the same time, chemical demand remains at a normal level, market supply and demand remain at a good level, downstream actively enters the market, and market prices remain stable. In late November, propane prices began to slightly decline, with downstream investors seeking dips and upstream investors adjusting flexibly, with a slight downward adjustment being the main focus.

Saudi Aramco announced its CP in November 2023, with propane at $610 per ton, an increase of $10 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane costs $620 per ton, an increase of $5 per ton compared to the previous month.

Overall, with the upcoming release of the CP in December, there will be a concentration of imported propane arriving at the port in the future. Due to weak demand and weak price increases, we will closely monitor the dynamics of the external market. It is expected that the propane market will experience a narrow consolidation and operation in the short term.