1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Business Society, since August, copper prices have fallen first and then risen. The main reason is that the two major bearish factors affecting prices in the early stages of mid to late August, namely the excessive issuance of bonds by Focus America and the slow recovery of the domestic economy, have experienced a significant emotional shift. Subsequently, the weakening of the US dollar index and strong expectations for stable domestic growth have also driven copper prices to rebound from the bottom. Entering the traditional peak demand season in September, there is an expectation that copper prices will have to rise. However, in early September, the rebound trend showed signs of turning around, with a daily decline of 0.63% on the 5th and prices returning to 60000 yuan.

Macroscopic emotional repetition

Although the market began to weaken the impact of excessive bond issuance in mid to late August, and the US dollar index subsequently fell from high levels. In addition, the Federal Reserve maintained a tightening tone, but the resilience of the US economy was difficult to shake off recession expectations and inflation, although in line with expectations, was also fluctuating. The probability of suspending rate hikes in September was almost certain, but the probability of rate hikes in November or December increased. On the domestic side, the tone of stable growth remains unchanged, and policies such as lowering interest rates on existing housing loans and regulating real estate have been implemented, boosting market confidence.

Loose supply

In terms of copper concentrate, the domestic TC quotation remains relatively high, indicating that the expectation for domestic copper concentrate is still relatively loose. In terms of refined copper production, crude refining maintenance increased in September, but the impact on refining capacity was relatively small. The rise in copper prices and premiums may stimulate refining enterprises to maintain high production operations. The estimated production of electrolytic copper in August was 986100 tons, an increase of 6.5% month on month and 20.34% year-on-year.

Import decline

In July, the net import of refined copper decreased by 2.35% year-on-year to 259800 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 12.52%; The import volume of scrap copper in July decreased by 12.12% month on month to 119300 metal tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%.

Different levels of demand

In August, the operating rates of pole making, copper materials, and copper rods slightly decreased, while copper plates, foils, and wires and cables slightly rebounded. The demand for copper still focuses on the increase in engineering orders such as power grid and electricity, but the actual performance of real estate demand is still poor.

LME inventory

According to LME inventory, recent LME copper inventory is still on an upward trend, at a higher level this year, suppressing the rise in copper prices. The monthly inventory of refined copper in China decreased by 11000 tons to 88600 tons, while the inventory in bonded areas decreased by 9800 tons to 49300 tons.

Comparison of annual copper prices

According to the annual price comparison chart of copper, in the past five years, copper prices have been fluctuating at a basic high level in September, with no particularly significant upward trend.

Based on the above situation, multiple large and medium-sized banks have announced a reduction in the interest rates of existing housing loans, and five cities in China have announced the implementation of “buying houses but not loans”. The multiple benefits of the real estate market have come in droves, providing support for copper prices. LME copper inventory is at a high level, and copper supply is still loose, putting pressure on copper prices. Based on the patterns of low and peak seasons over the years, there is no obvious “Golden Nine” upward trend in copper prices in September. Copper price increases will suppress demand, and companies do not accept high prices. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate at high levels in September.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market fluctuated and rose in August. From August 1st to 31st, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 17150 yuan/ton to 17516 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.14% during the cycle and a maximum amplitude of 3.60%. The price increased by 18.36% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, production enterprises controlled the quantity of shipments, but the market supply was insufficient. Traders’ quotations were skyrocketing, leading to stronger follow-up. In mid month, due to the impact of factory maintenance by production enterprises, the spot filling is limited, the market atmosphere is high, and the support capacity is relatively outstanding. The domestic aggregated MDI market price is slowly driving. In the latter half of the month, the overall supply is still relatively limited, and the overall market price fluctuation is slow, with a narrow range of consolidation.

On the supply side, the overall supply is relatively limited. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market remained at a high level in August. The rise in crude oil has boosted refinery prices, with downstream and traders actively following suit and the transaction is still acceptable. Raw material aniline: The aniline market fluctuated and rose in August. The fundamentals of aniline are relatively strong, and the bidding prices of northern factories have increased, with strong cost support. The follow-up on the demand side is normal, and with the fulfillment of Wanhua’s maintenance plan within the past month, the market’s positive guidance is obvious. There is no pressure on aniline factory shipments, and the quotation continues to rise. The cost side of short-term aggregated MDI continues to be strong.

On the demand side, under the traditional peak season of the pipeline industry, the overall performance is average, while other industries have not changed much recently. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the cost side is supported by high levels, and the overall support capacity of the supply side is strengthening. With the downstream cold industry still in a state of follow-up, analysts of Business Society’s aggregated MDI predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly high and volatile

Product name: Sulfuric acid

Latest price (September 1st): 312.00 yuan/ton

On September 1st, the domestic sulfuric acid market price significantly increased, with a price increase of 18 yuan/ton compared to August 31st, an increase of 6.12%, and a year-on-year increase of 23.81%. The upstream sulfur market has continued to rise recently, with increased cost support. The downstream market for hydrofluoric acid and titanium dioxide has slightly increased, and downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. Duo Zhong Li is good, and the product trend is upward.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly, with an average market price of around 340 yuan/ton.

Since the domestic phenol market rose in July, it has been fluctuating at high levels in August. According to the market analysis system of the Business Society, the national market average price was 8207.5 yuan/ton on August 1st, with a rise and fall within the month. On the 31st, it closed at 8207.5 yuan/ton. The major mainstream markets are as follows:

On August 31st, the phenol offers in various markets across the country were as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Monthly fluctuations

East China region/ 8230./-200

Shandong region/ 8150./100

The surrounding area of Yanshan/ 8200./50

South China region/ 8300./-150

In early August, although the cost side cost increased, the support for phenol was limited. The increase in domestic plant construction combined with port inventory dropping to 15000 tons, and the market was operating in a mixed cycle of ups and downs.

In mid to late August, firstly supported by cost, the factory raised the overall listing price, and the prices quoted by the holders were higher. However, terminal procurement was limited, and shipments were not smooth. Most traders reported higher prices but lower prices. Subsequently, Jiangsu Ruiheng stopped, and the contract volume was tight towards the end of the month. The pressure on holders to ship goods was not significant, pushing up again. However, terminal enterprises still needed to follow up, with limited trading volume and limited growth.

From the perspective of the business community, the raw materials sector remained strong in September. Domestic units Wanhua Chemical and Changchun Chemical have maintenance plans, but downstream configuration units are also undergoing maintenance, which has little impact on market supply. Downstream phenolic resin has become weak during the high temperature off-season, and demand may improve. It is expected that the market will not fluctuate much in September and will continue to fluctuate at high levels, with negotiations ranging from 7900 to 8400 yuan/ton.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of August 30, 2023, the factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was set at 4300 yuan/ton. Compared with August 1 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 4666 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 333 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.86%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that from August 8.1 to August 30, the overall market situation of dimethyl carbonate in China showed a weak decline. This month, the overall operating rate of dimethyl carbonate plants in China has increased, and the overall on-site supply has increased. The supply side is under pressure, coupled with average downstream demand performance. The electrolyte solvent market is cautious in stocking, with few transactions, and the market atmosphere is cold. The demand side provides limited support for dimethyl carbonate, and the supply and demand transmission is slow. In order to stimulate shipment, dimethyl carbonate factories have successively lowered the factory price of dimethyl carbonate, The cumulative decrease within the month is around 200-400 yuan/ton, and the overall center of gravity of dimethyl carbonate is weak and moving downwards. As of August 30th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is referenced around 4100-4500 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the trading of new orders for dimethyl carbonate on the market is cautious, with a focus on maintaining just demand. The overall downstream operating rate is low, and the support provided to dimethyl carbonate is limited. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic market for dimethyl carbonate is mostly weak and the operation is mainly adjusted. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.