This week (11.13-17), the domestic polycrystalline silicon market stopped falling and stabilized. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the fluctuation range of polycrystalline silicon is 0. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first grade solar energy has dropped to 60-70000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, silicon material manufacturers maintain a reasonable level of operation, and new production capacity is gradually released, achieving mass production. Domestic supply is stable, and the market is in a process of destocking. The overall production of silicon materials this month has slightly increased compared to last month, and the supply pressure has slightly eased. Moreover, silicon material manufacturers are slowing down their shipping speed, making it difficult for their prices to improve and maintain a low operating level.

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, the operating load of silicon wafer enterprises remains low, mainly due to the inventory backlog of manufacturers in the early stage and the slowdown in downstream procurement. The inventory level of silicon wafers continues to operate at a high level to continue digesting inventory. Currently, the inventory level is gradually returning to a reasonable level, and the procurement intensity may rebound in the later stage. The quotation for silicon wafers remained unchanged this week and remained unchanged from last week. The mainstream transaction price of the M10 single crystal silicon chip is 2.40 yuan per chip; The mainstream transaction price for G12 single crystal silicon wafers is 3.40 yuan per chip.

From the perspective of terminal demand, the prices of battery cells and components continue to hang upside down, with battery cell prices mainly stabilizing this week. The average price of single crystal M10 battery cells is 0.46 yuan, while the average price of G12 battery cells is 0.52 yuan. Although the domestic installation rate is basically stable, external orders have decreased and overall terminal demand has slowed down.

Future forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that the silicon material market will continue to maintain a destocking mode in the short term, but the inventory pressure of manufacturers will gradually be eased, and the decline in the future will further narrow. Due to insufficient demand increment, weak operation may continue to dominate in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of liquid caprolactam in China was 12887 yuan/ton on November 13th, and 12975 yuan/ton on November 17th. The price of caprolactam increased by 0.68% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market for caprolactam has risen this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, which is beneficial for cost support. Some enterprises have reduced the load of caprolactam units and reduced market supply. Downstream procurement is on demand, and the demand side is relatively stable. As of November 17th, Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam has settled at 13450 yuan/ton this week. It is a liquid premium product and will be accepted and self picked up in June.

The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On November 13th, the price of pure benzene was 7675 yuan/ton, and on Friday (November 17th), the price of pure benzene was 7750 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.97% compared to last week. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 7750 yuan/ton (the prices in Shandong and Hebei regions were synchronized).

Downstream PA6 prices have risen this week. As of November 17th, the reference average price of domestic PA6 is 14450 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam analysts believe that in recent days, the market for caprolactam has become dominant. The price of raw material pure benzene is strong, and the cost is supported. Downstream procurement is on demand, and the market is improving. The supply of caprolactam in the market is tight, and it is expected that the price of caprolactam will be strong in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of November 16, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was 7616 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7413 yuan/ton), the price increased by 203 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.78%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week, the overall market situation of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China has shown a steady upward trend, and the trading center of the n-butanol market has been constantly exploring. Entering this week, downstream demand for n-butanol has been concentrated, and downstream replenishment and stocking have been concentrated. The inquiry atmosphere on the n-butanol market has improved, boosting confidence among operators, and the demand side has supported the recovery of the low level of the n-butanol market. As of November 16th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 7500-7700 yuan/ton, the price of n-butanol in North China region is around 7600-7700 yuan/ton, the price of n-butanol in South China region is around 8200-8350 yuan/ton, and the price of n-butanol in East China region is around 7950-8050 yuan/ton.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the overall supply of n-butanol is abundant, and the supply side gives general market support. The recovery of n-butanol market is driven by the improvement of the demand side. Whether the demand side can continue to give market support needs to continue to be concerned. The n-butanol data engineer of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mostly stabilize and adjust its operation.

Product Name: Neopentyl Glycol

Latest price (November 15th): 0100.00 yuan/ton

On November 15th, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol slightly decreased, with a decrease of 225 yuan/ton compared to November 14th, a decrease of 2.18%, and a year-on-year increase of 4.48%. The raw material isobutyraldehyde market has recently stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream polyester resin market is average, and downstream customers have weak enthusiasm for purchasing neopentyl glycol.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol may fluctuate slightly and decline. The average market price is around 10000 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride has slightly increased this week. The price of potassium chloride has increased from 3025.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3062.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.24%. On November 14th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 97.22, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 44.32% from the cycle’s highest point of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 66.90% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have slightly increased this week. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2800-2850 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium in ports is around 2900-2950 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 3050-3150 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2800-2900 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market has slightly increased this week, rising from 7480.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7500.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.27%, and a year-on-year decrease of 18.14% over the weekend. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly increased this week, rising from 5400.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5425.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.46%. The weekend price decreased by 7.66% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly increased, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has increased.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to late November, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased, with primary demand for procurement. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. Analysts from the Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.