According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of August 4, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 868 yuan/ton. Compared with July 31, 2023 (reference price of phosphate ore is 878 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.14%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (7.31-8.04), the overall market situation of mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore in China showed a weak and slight decline. The overall demand for downstream phosphate fertilizer and fertilizer in the phosphate rock terminal market is weak, and the support provided to phosphate rock from bottom to top is limited. Currently, although the downstream yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid market has rebounded, the support provided to phosphate rock has not yet met expectations. In some regions of China, mining companies have adjusted the price of phosphate rock in a narrow range, with a reduction of around 20 yuan/ton. As of August 4th, the domestic phosphate rock market price is referenced around 750-980 yuan/ton.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market Trend of Phosphate Rock

At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate ore field is average, and the overall pace of phosphate ore shipment is relatively slow, with weak transactions on the field. The phosphate ore data analyst of the Business Society believes that there is still a slight downward risk in the domestic phosphate ore market in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, from July 27 to August 3, the average price of Cyclohexanone in the domestic market rose from 8785 yuan/ton to 9500 yuan/ton, up 8.13% within the week, 17.70% month on month, down 5.75% year on year. The listing of raw material pure benzene has been raised to 7600 yuan/ton for many times. The cost is well supported. The downstream chemical fiber and solvent just need to follow up. The supply of Cyclohexanone commodity is average. Driven by the cost, the market price decreases and the transaction focus increases.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene and the domestic market price of pure benzene continue to rise significantly. The domestic supply of pure benzene has slightly increased, but downstream demand has rebounded, and it is necessary to actively buy and enter the market; After the continuous decline in port inventory, traders have limited inventory and spot goods, and cargo holders are reluctant to sell at high prices. On August 3rd, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangye Society was 7542.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.50% compared to the beginning of this month (7287.17 yuan/ton). The cost of Cyclohexanone is affected by short-term favorable factors.

On the supply side, the main production enterprise equipment maintenance. The short-term supply of Cyclohexanone was slightly positive.

Demand side, Caprolactam: downstream Caprolactam maintains high load operation. With Cyclohexanone rising steadily in the near future, downstream chemical fiber and solvent are cautious in catching up, and just need to follow up. On August 3, the benchmark price of Caprolactam in the business community was 12725.00 yuan/ton, up 0.99% compared with 12600.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. The demand side of Cyclohexanone is favorable.

It is predicted that with the high price of Cyclohexanone rising, the high price of downstream chemical fiber and solvent will slow down and the market will be in a weak balance. In the future, we need to wait and see the impact of the price of raw material pure benzene on Cyclohexanone. Cyclohexanone analysts from the business community predict that the short-term domestic Cyclohexanone market will still operate at a high level.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of aniline fell first and then rose this month. At the beginning of the month, aniline showed a downward trend, and the price of aniline began to rise in mid to late October. On July 1st, the market price of aniline was 10225 yuan/ton; On July 31st, the price was at 9880 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline this month decreased by 3.37% compared to the beginning of the month and 10.68% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

In terms of raw materials, the pure benzene market has seen a significant increase this month, with prices gradually increasing. 1、 Crude oil fell broadly, with a bearish cost side. 2、 The Asian American arbitrage window has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is high, resulting in a high import volume of pure benzene in July. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is sufficient. 3、 The downstream profit level is poor, and the price of styrene has slightly increased, with a 14.18% increase compared to the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene was 6183 yuan/ton; The price at the end of the month was 7212 yuan/ton, and the price has increased this month, a decrease of 18.89% compared to the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this month. The price of nitric acid in East China was 1950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 1933 yuan/ton at the end of the month, 0.87% lower than the beginning of the month and 29.7% lower than the same period last year.

In July of this year, the price of aniline fluctuated and did not rise until mid to late October. Starting from the beginning of the month, the early maintenance equipment has gradually returned, and the on-site spot supply increment is insufficient; Downstream, due to increased resistance to high priced aniline, the operating rate has decreased and the demand for aniline has increased. Against the backdrop of insufficient supply and increased demand, aniline factories have run out of inventory and prices have fallen significantly. Towards the end of the month, the price of aniline has rebounded.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The demand for pure benzene in the region is strong, and downstream purchases are normal. Traders are just in need of restocking, driving the transaction focus to continue to shift upwards. Crude oil and external markets rose,

Pure benzene still has the possibility of rising in the short term, and there is insufficient cost support for aniline. In July, there were fewer inspections of the aniline plant and there was sufficient supply. Downstream MDI demand is temporarily stable, and the additive industry has entered the off-season, resulting in poor demand performance. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the trend of cost, changes in downstream demand, and changes in the operating rate of aniline plants.

In early July, the metal silicon market showed a broad upward trend, with profits in the southwest region being restored, silicon factories gradually resuming production, and some insulation furnaces in the northwest large factories also resuming production. Manufacturers have made significant price increases. By July 12th, silicon prices had surged due to news of a major factory’s production reduction. Subsequently, it immediately fell back, and the market’s once hyped expectation of high temperature power rationing was falsified. At the same time, the downward revision of Xinjiang’s major manufacturers’ quotations dragged down market sentiment. Southwest manufacturers have a high sentiment of favoring prices, but downstream actual transactions are not good, suppressing the price of metal silicon.

Market analysis

On the supply side

The southwest has entered a flood season, and the electricity prices in Sichuan and Yunnan have decreased by 0.075-0.05 yuan/ton. The electricity prices in Xinjiang have slightly increased. In July, the resumption of production in Yunnan accelerated, and towards the end of the month, due to the impact of the Universiade, partial power restrictions were imposed in Sichuan, but the impact on metal silicon enterprises was limited. Large factories in Xinjiang are purchasing electricity from external networks, and the cost of electricity prices has increased. However, the current situation of large factories in Xinjiang is good, and small and medium-sized factories are gradually resuming production. In August, the precipitation in the southwest increased, and driven by profits in the northwest, it is expected that the metal silicon production in August will slightly increase compared to July.

Inventory aspect

As of July 28th, the total inventory of metal silicon in the three regions was 163000 tons, an increase of 8000 tons compared to the end of last month, or 53.8% year-on-year. In July, metal silicon continued to accumulate inventory. On the one hand, downstream procurement capacity was weak, mainly consuming invisible warehouses; On the other hand, as the delivery date approaches, the number of delivery warehouses continues to increase, and some delivery warehouses in Kunming, Yunnan have reached full capacity within the month.

In terms of demand

In July, the price of polycrystalline silicon slightly rebounded at the end of the month. After the continuous decline of polycrystalline silicon in the early stage, some polycrystalline silicon enterprises ceased production and underwent maintenance at the end of the month. However, the new production capacity continues to be released, and the demand for metallic silicon remains stable.

 
In July, organic silicon DMC showed a weak decline, with many monomer factories increasing their production reduction efforts. However, downstream demand has not boosted significantly, and it is expected that organic silicon will maintain a weak operation in the short term. Aluminum alloy enterprises maintain a rigid demand for metal silicon procurement, but the significant positive impact of policy on the real estate and automotive industries at the end of the month is expected to increase the demand for metal silicon for aluminum alloy in August.

Future Market Forecast

In August, metal silicon may face a situation of double increase in supply and demand. Despite the increase in metal silicon production, it still faces high inventory pressure and insufficient short-term action in silicon prices. However, with the release of new polysilicon production capacity and the improvement of demand margins, there is support for the downward trend. It is expected that metal silicon will maintain a volatile trend in August.

Cobalt prices rose and fell in July

According to data monitoring by Business Society, cobalt prices have risen continuously from 290200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 305600 yuan/ton on July 11th, and have since continued to decline. As of July 31, the cobalt price was 286500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.27% compared to the cobalt price of 290200 yuan/ton on July 1; The cobalt price decreased by 6.25% compared to 305600 yuan/ton on July 11th. Downstream demand support is insufficient, and the cobalt market is oversupplied. In July, domestic cobalt prices surged and fell back.

MB cobalt prices fluctuated and fell in July

From the trend chart of MB cobalt price, it can be seen that the MB cobalt price in July did not continue the upward trend of cobalt price in June, and from the middle of the month, the cobalt price slightly decreased. The decline in international cobalt prices is bearish for the domestic cobalt market.

The installed volume of ternary batteries decreased year-on-year

The latest data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance shows that in June, China’s power battery installation volume was 32.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 21.8% and a month on month increase of 16.5%. Among them, the installed capacity of ternary batteries is 10.1GWh, accounting for 30.6% of the total installed capacity, a year-on-year decrease of 13%, and a month on month increase of 11.6%. In June, the installed volume of power batteries increased month on month, and the sales of new energy vehicles maintained a significant growth; However, the installation volume of ternary batteries has decreased year-on-year, the proportion of ternary batteries has decreased, the inventory of ternary batteries has accumulated, and the expectation of cobalt market demand growth has decreased, increasing the downward pressure on the cobalt market.

Global mobile phone sales decreased in the second quarter

According to a report released by research firm Counterpoint, in the second quarter of 2023, the global smartphone market sales decreased by 8% year-on-year and 5% month on month, with eight consecutive quarters of year-on-year decline. Mobile phone sales in all regions of the world have contracted, and during the “6.18″ promotion period in China, although the promotion efforts were strong, the response was relatively cold. Counterpoint predicts that the smartphone market will slowly recover in the coming quarters. The sales of mobile phones have decreased and there has been no improvement, leading to an expected decrease in demand in the cobalt market.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, cobalt prices surged in June, but there is insufficient support for future demand growth. Customers are buying up instead of falling, and cobalt prices fell from their high point in July. In June, the installed volume of ternary batteries decreased month on month, global mobile phone sales decreased by 8% in the second quarter, and demand in the cobalt market decreased. Overall, the expected decrease in demand growth and stable supply growth have led to oversupply in the cobalt market, increasing pressure on cobalt prices to decline. It is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate and decline in the future.