1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, in the first half of 2023, China’s Diethylene glycol was mainly guided by the macro news and its own fundamentals, and the overall trend showed an inverted “V” trend. In the first half of 2023, the average price in the East China market was 6141 yuan/ton, up 23.09% year on year. At the end of the Spring Festival, as the port inventory continued to be low, boosting the enthusiasm of the market, the market price of Diethylene glycol soared all the way, and the high point of the market price in East China exceeded 8000 yuan/ton. However, the downstream follow-up sentiment slowed down, and the Diethylene glycol market entered a downward phase when there was a certain amount of cargo replenishment at the port. By June, the market’s decline was amplified and gradually returned to the level before the rise. After a deep drop in prices, bearish sentiment had dissipated to some extent, and the market returned to fundamentals driven.

2、 Market analysis

In the first ten days of January April, the Diethylene glycol market soared all the way up. At this stage, Diethylene glycol’s own fundamental favorable factors dominated the market. The supply and demand were stronger and the macro aspects were boosted. The market started a rising model. The number of imports to Hong Kong is limited, and the inventory of the main port continues to be destocked, and the minimum inventory will reach around 15000 tons. The supply continues to be in short supply, and the demand also performs well. The two together support the market focus to continue to rise. On April 11, the price of Diethylene glycol rose to a historical high of 8110 yuan/ton in recent years.

In the middle of April to the end of June, the downward channel of Diethylene glycol was opened. After the price of Diethylene glycol rose to a new high in mid April, the market became bearish. Some market participants took profits, and the market began to weaken. Although the supply side continued to support the market, the demand side performance gradually weakened. The downstream follow-up was weak, and the market confidence was insufficient. Diethylene glycol gradually entered the downward channel. Since mid June, the market’s decline has slowed down, and the fundamental performance has shown weakness. There is a lack of positive news support, and the market is weak and volatile.

3、 Forecast for the second half of the year

In the second half of 2023, the supply side of Diethylene glycol has limited support, the price may be adjusted at a low level, and the upward market needs to be boosted by demand. In terms of supply, the maintenance of large domestic devices has basically ended in the first half of the year, and the opening meeting of the devices has improved in the second half. However, due to the poor performance of ethylene glycol, it is difficult to have a significant overall increase in construction. It is expected that domestic supply will increase in quantity. At the same time, as foreign devices recover, there is also a possibility of a small increase in imports. Therefore, in the second half of the year, port inventory may slowly start accumulating, and the supply side provides market support generally.

In terms of demand, starting from mid August, the traditional peak season of the downstream unsaturated resin market has gradually entered, especially in the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” stage. There is a certain expectation of incremental growth in the demand side, which has a corresponding positive boost for the market. However, the overall recovery of the terminal market still needs to be observed. In addition, the overall environment of national economic development also has an important impact on the adjustment of market mentality.

To sum up, the domestic Diethylene glycol market may be slightly consolidated in the second half of the year, and the changes in the demand side will become the main driving force for the price rise. It is necessary to pay attention to the macro, device operation and changes in market mentality.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of aniline has slightly decreased this month, and the price of aniline has been stable from the beginning to the middle of the month. After the middle of the month, the price suddenly dropped. On June 1st, the market price of aniline was 10912 yuan/ton; On June 30th, the price was at 10238 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline this month decreased by 6.17% compared to the beginning of the month and 14.32% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

In terms of raw materials, the pure benzene market is relatively stable this month, with little price fluctuation. 1、 Crude oil fell broadly, with a bearish cost side. 2、 The Asian American arbitrage window has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is high, resulting in a high import volume of pure benzene in March. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is sufficient. 3、 The downstream profit level is poor, and the price of styrene has slightly decreased, with a decrease of 8.01% compared to the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene was 6530 yuan/ton; At the end of the month, the price was 7184 yuan/ton, but this month the price has decreased by 24.57% compared to the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this month. The price of nitric acid in East China was 2033 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 1951 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price fell 4.03% from the beginning of the month and 27.28% from the same period last year.

In June of this year, the price of aniline remained relatively stable, and it was not until mid to late October that there was a slight decline. Starting from the beginning of the month, the early maintenance equipment has gradually returned, and the on-site spot supply increment is insufficient; Downstream, due to increased resistance to high priced aniline, the operating rate has decreased and the demand for aniline has increased. Against the backdrop of insufficient supply and increased demand, aniline factories have run out of inventory and prices have fallen significantly. The price of aniline is relatively stable towards the end of the month.

3、 Future Market Forecast

On the raw material side, pure benzene: The short-term weakness of the fundamentals is difficult to improve. East China ports are expected to continue to accumulate, with sufficient on-site supply. In the short term, pure benzene will continue to show a weak trend, and we will wait and see if the cost and demand sides can improve.

Pure benzene may still weaken in the short term, and there is insufficient cost support for aniline. In June, there were fewer inspections of the aniline plant and there was sufficient supply. Downstream MDI demand is temporarily stable, and the additive industry has entered the off-season, resulting in poor demand performance. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the trend of cost, changes in downstream demand, and changes in the operating rate of aniline plants.

Price trend

After the domestic EVA market fell in June, it was sideways and spot prices remained stable at a low level. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of June 30th, the average ex factory price of EVA in China was 12833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of -3.51% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market has been operating weakly and steadily this month. On the supply side, the EVA industry has experienced a high start rate followed by a low start rate, with the overall load position dropping from over 90% to around 60%, and the current construction is about 64%. The market supply is still abundant, and factory inventory pressure is still ongoing. The manufacturer’s factory price continues to increase, and the profitability of the EVA polymerization plant remains stable. There is also inventory pressure on the social side, and traders tend to give up profits and take orders. On the buyer’s side, due to the news of the new production device of Gulei, the stocking operation was cautious and the follow-up within the month was poor. Terminal enterprises in both photovoltaic and foaming materials have lagged behind in their follow-up, resulting in low actual prices and continued weak trading on the market. Enterprises have resistance to high priced sources of goods. The current demand side continues to have a bearish impact on the EVA price market.

Overall, the supply side pressure on the EVA market has slightly improved this month, while downstream demand is generally weak. Overall, the enterprise dominates the price adjustment, with factory prices fluctuating horizontally, and merchants are flexible in taking orders. The demand for foaming is particularly poor, and the overall market is empty. It is expected that the domestic EVA market may continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of baking soda is weak this month, with an average market price of 1950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 1925 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price has decreased by 1.28%, a year-on-year decrease of 30.67%. On June 28th, the baking soda commodity index was 127.77, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 45.82% from the cycle’s highest point of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 44.75% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2020 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business news agency, the overall price of baking soda in May was weak, and downstream markets have been mainly purchasing according to demand recently. The current price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1700-2100 yuan/ton, which is the mainstream market quotation. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash was weak in June. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2080 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the end of the month was around 1960 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 5.77%, a decrease of 32.88% compared to the same period last year.

In terms of demand: Downstream demand for baking soda in pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food is average this month. Raw material soda ash: According to the commodity analysis system of the Business Society, the price of soda ash increased in early June, but decreased in mid to late June. Currently, the domestic soda ash price is temporarily stable and the price fluctuation is relatively small. The soda ash plant is relatively stable, and the overall trading atmosphere is acceptable. Recently, downstream soda ash is mostly purchased on demand, and the supply-demand game is expected to be dominated by fluctuating soda ash prices in the later stage. Downstream, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have a high demand for baking soda, which can be purchased according to demand. The price of baking soda has stabilized, and overall, the short-term or continued consolidation of baking soda prices depends on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of acrylic acid in East China as of June 28 was 5925.00 yuan/ton, 2.07% lower than the price on June 1.

The acrylic acid market fell first and then rose in June. In the first half of the month, the raw material propylene market fluctuated and fell, with insufficient cost support. The supply side adjusted the load of individual factories and devices, resulting in a decline in industry operating rates. In the off-season of demand, the downstream ester device load was not high, and the demand for raw material inquiries and procurement was mainly in demand. The focus of market negotiations was weak. In the second half of the month, the raw material propylene market rose, with increased cost support, boosting the mentality of the industry and driving up prices for enterprises. The factory equipment load was not high, and the demand side procurement continued to be in demand. The acrylic acid market was relatively strong, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere remained.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for propylene on June 27th was 6513.25, an increase of 0.81% compared to June 1st (6460.75).

Acrylic acid analysts from Business Society believe that there is currently some support in the cost side, with downstream procurement being the main focus and the market trading atmosphere being moderate. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may undergo a narrow adjustment in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.