Recently (9.28-10.11), the acrylonitrile market has been operating at a high level. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 11th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 9825 yuan/ton, maintaining stable operation. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile in the market is between 9700 to 10000 yuan/ton. The high price of raw materials has slightly decreased, and the cost continues to support acrylonitrile; Small fluctuations in the high starting point of the main downstream ABS; The construction of acrylonitrile units has slightly decreased, with slight support from the supply and demand side, and the price of acrylonitrile has slightly increased.

Recently (9.28-10.11), the overall stability of domestic acrylonitrile production has been achieved.

In the recent period (9.28-10.11), the raw material propylene market has experienced a high and narrow decline, and the cost support for acrylonitrile has slightly weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 11th, the domestic propylene price was 7200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.96% from the 7270 yuan/ton before the holiday.

It is understood that as of early October, downstream ABS construction remained at a high level of 90%, which still requires strong support for acrylonitrile; Stable operation of nitrile rubber, polyacrylamide, etc. Overall, acrylonitrile still needs strong support in the short term.

Future Market Forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from Business Society believe that the current supply of acrylonitrile is loose, and some devices are expected to restart in the future; There is some support on the demand side, and raw material prices have slightly declined. Overall, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will consolidate at a high level in the short term. In the future, with further improvement in the supply side and a slight weakness in the downstream market, the acrylonitrile market may weaken slightly.

After the holiday, the domestic bisphenol A market continued to decline. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market quotation for bisphenol A on October 8th was between 11000-11250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200-300 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday.

The domestic market for bisphenol A has poor trading volume, with limited news coverage, limited downstream procurement, and traders’ shipments being hindered. The proactive offer is not high, and most of the orders are based on actual orders. Quotation situation of bisphenol A in the mainstream domestic market:

Cost side bearish. During the holiday period, international crude oil plummeted significantly, which was bearish for downstream products. After the holiday, both phenol and acetone, the dual raw materials, continued to decline, and the phenol market continued to be sluggish. The reference price in the East China market was 8850-9000 yuan/ton, and traders were under great pressure to continuously sell out. As factory quotations were lowered, the market’s participation in procurement decreased due to the inversion. After the holiday, acetone saw a narrow decline, with the reference price of 7300-7450 yuan/ton at the East China Acetone Mall. There were few news sources, and downstream restocking intentions were average. Currently, there is a shortage of dual raw material trading, resulting in weak adjustment and operation.

The downstream market is sluggish and difficult to improve. The domestic epoxy resin market has experienced a narrow decline, and there is a lack of guidance on the scarcity of actual orders after the holiday. With the decline of raw material bisphenol A, epoxy resin manufacturers are on the market, and traders can negotiate based on actual orders. The mainstream negotiated price for liquid resin in East China is between 14500 to 15000 yuan/ton for water purification. Downstream PC market is not good, with a narrow decline. East China injection molding grade mid to high-end materials are discussed at 17500 to 18400 yuan/ton, with a PC enterprise in Shandong dropping 700 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. Fundamentals are intertwined with bearish sentiment, with shipments being the main offer. Under a bearish mentality, market trading is clearly insufficient.

The cost support for the continuous decline of dual raw materials is insufficient, and downstream demand follow-up is very cautious. The actual order volume is insufficient, and the focus of bisphenol A is weak. Although Changchun Chemical is about to shut down for maintenance tomorrow, the spot supply chain in East China has decreased, but the impact on the market is not significant. Expected weak consolidation of bisphenol A, focusing on the raw material end and factory production and sales situation.

On the second working day after the holiday, the domestic phenol market continued to decline. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the average price in the domestic market was 9150 yuan/ton on October 8th, with a single day decline of 2.09% in the national market. Among them, the negotiated price in the East China market decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 9000 yuan/ton.

Major domestic factories have adjusted their listing prices one after another, which is negative for the domestic phenol market, prompting major mainstream transactions to tend towards negotiated price drops. The factory price adjustment is as follows:

On October 8th, the phenol price of Yanshan Petrochemical fell by 200 yuan per ton to 9300 yuan, and the 300000 ton/year phenol ketone plant of Yanshan Petrochemical was operating normally

On October 8th, Zhongsha Tianjin Petrochemical lowered the phenol price by 200 yuan per ton, implementing a 9300 yuan/ton reduction. The 350000 ton/year phenol ketone plant entered normal operation, and the manufacturer shipped as planned.

On October 8th, Lihua Yiwei Yuan Chemical Co., Ltd. lowered the factory price of phenol products by 200 yuan per ton to 9300 yuan.

On October 8th, the phenol price of Gaoqiao Petrochemical fell by 200 yuan per ton, resulting in a 9200 yuan/ton decrease. The 240000 ton/year phenol ketone plant in Caojing was operating at full capacity, with low inventory.

On October 8th, Mitsui Chemical announced that its sales of Sinopec Mitsui phenol had a price drop of 200 yuan per ton, resulting in a decrease of 9200 yuan per ton.

On October 8th, Yangzhou Shiyou lowered the price of phenol by 200 yuan per ton, resulting in a normal operation of the 320000 ton/year phenol ketone plant. This price will be executed on September 27th.

The focus of the downstream bisphenol A market has weakened, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market after the holiday. Due to the negative impact of the industry chain, downstream products have also shown a significant downward trend, with light market trading and few actual orders. The mainstream negotiated prices in East China range from 11100 to 11300 yuan/ton, with a significant downward trend in the focus after the holiday.

From the perspective of the business community, the current downstream bidding intention is low, and the overall buying interest is not high. Pay attention to the actual order negotiation situation. The expected market price of phenol is around 9000 yuan/ton.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic vitamin market continued to decline in September, with some factories having extended maintenance times, production and sales declining, and some vitamin products continuing to decline.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the price of vitamin C slightly decreased in September, with a price of 22.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 22 yuan/kg on the 28th, a monthly decrease of 1.48%. Affected by the continuous decline in demand, the price of vitamin C in the market continues to decline. Upstream quotations are on the market, while downstream prices are on demand and on demand.

In September, the price of vitamin A slightly adjusted, with an average price of 89.5 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 87.75 yuan/kg at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 1.96%. The current mainstream market quotation is around 80 yuan/kg, while the European market quotation is 20-24 euros/kg. The weak demand in the vitamin A market has led to prices dropping to their lowest levels in recent years, with limited room for further decline.

In September, the price of vitamin E slightly adjusted, and the mainstream market price remained stable around 70 yuan/kg. The European market offers a price of 6.8-7.2 euros per kilogram. Large domestic factories have suspended production for maintenance, and the vitamin E market has shown a stabilizing trend. In August 2023, China’s vitamin E export volume was 6665.3 tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, indicating stable demand in the export market.

Future Market Forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that some vitamin prices are currently operating at the bottom, and there is limited room for significant price reductions upstream. The market is in the stage of finding support points, and without significant positive factors to boost it, it is expected that most products will maintain low volatility. In the future, we will closely monitor market trends and changes in enterprise production.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 28th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21500.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.90% compared to the beginning of the month’s price of 21100.00 yuan/ton, and an increase of 17.27% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 28th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 26000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.98% compared to the beginning of the month price of 24766.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 1.30% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In September, the domestic price of chloroform significantly increased, with a 31.4% increase within the month. The price of hydrofluoric acid continued to rise, with a 5.48% increase within the month. The continuous increase in raw material costs has provided some support for the domestic R22 market price. Previously, the overall domestic R22 had already risen to a high level. In addition, as the end of the month approaches, the remaining quota quantity of enterprises is generally low, and the downstream demand in China is relatively stable. The market supply and demand have entered a stalemate, Starting from the latter half of the year, the overall domestic R22 market price remains stable and moves forward.

In September, the domestic price of trichloroethylene continued to rise, while the price of hydrofluoric acid continued to be strong. The cost of raw materials continued to rise, and supported by the rebound in demand for foreign trade orders, the overall price of R134a in China continued to rise in September.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid continues to rise, and the continuous increase in raw material costs will provide strong support for the future refrigerant market prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that the cost of raw materials has significantly increased, and downstream demand is generally stable. It is expected that the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will continue to rise to varying degrees in October.