According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market prices slightly declined this week (September 18-22). As of September 22, the average price quoted by the 1.4D * 38mm polyester staple fiber factory was 7972 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.75% compared to the beginning of the week.

The support for raw materials has weakened, leading to a correction in international crude oil prices. As of September 20th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $89.63 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $93.37 per barrel. PTA followed the decline in crude oil. Although the PTA factory announced its device maintenance plan, it failed to boost the market. As of September 22, the market price of PTA in the East China region was 6289 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.89% compared to the beginning of the week.

From a downstream perspective, the textile industry is still in the peak consumption season, and the market is partially moderate. At present, both yarn mills and traders generally indicate that although there has been an improvement in small batch sales, there are still not many large single aspects, and a significant improvement needs to be examined. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and downstream demand support is average. Although the foreign trade market has recovered somewhat, its strength is still limited. The price has remained stable, with the average market price of pure polyester yarn in Shandong as of September 15th at 12925 yuan/ton

Analysts from the Business Society believe that there is currently no adjustment to the installation of polyester staple fiber factories, and the industry’s production capacity remains below 80%, with sufficient supply of goods. On the demand side, due to the impact of the Asian Games, downstream yarn factories in Zhejiang have slightly adjusted their operations, maintaining a rigid demand for polyester staple fiber procurement. In addition, as raw material prices decline, the focus of cost support shifts downwards. It is expected that the short-term market price of polyester staple fibers will be narrow and weak.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOTP stopped falling and rebounded

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 21, the price of DOTP was 11440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38% compared to September 14, when the price of DOTP was 11600 yuan/ton; Compared to September 20th, the price of DOTP increased by 0.70% to 11360 yuan/ton. In September, the inventory of DOTP increased, and DOTP manufacturers sold at a discount. The profit level of DOTP decreased, and DOTP losses intensified. Low price DOTP stimulated downstream demand to recover; On the raw material side, the low price source of isooctanol has been delisted, and the shipment of isooctanol is active with cost support, increasing the pressure on DOTP to rise; Under cost support and profit pressure from DOTP, the price of DOTP has stopped falling and rebounded this week.

The price of isooctanol has stopped falling and stabilized this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on September 21 was 11720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.93% compared to the price of isooctanol on September 14, which was 12200 yuan/ton. The domestic isooctanol plant has started operating and restarted, resulting in an oversupply of isooctanol and a fluctuating decline in isooctanol prices; This week, the price of propylene fluctuated and increased. Under cost pressure, the space for reducing the price of isooctanol is limited, and the price of isooctanol has stabilized.

PTA prices rose first and then fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PTA price on September 21 was 6300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.35% compared to the PTA price of 6386 yuan/ton on September 14; Compared to 6204 yuan/ton on September 11th, it increased by 1.55%. This week, multiple PTA devices have restarted, equipment operating rates have increased, PTA supply has increased, raw material acetic acid prices have increased, PX prices have stabilized at high levels, PTA raw material cost support has weakened, and PTA prices have fluctuated and fallen. Later on, there will be an increase in PTA device maintenance plans in the city, with a decrease in PTA supply expectations and an increase in PTA prices. Raw material costs are expected to rise, and DOTP cost support still exists.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of raw materials, the price of isooctanol has stabilized, PTA device maintenance plans have increased, and the cost support for plasticizer product DOTP still exists; In terms of profits, DOTP has been selling at a reduced price, and low-priced plasticizers have stimulated downstream demand for procurement. The rebound in demand has supported DOTP, which has rebounded this week. In the future, there is still a demand for low-cost plasticizers to support cost support, and it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

Product name: PVC

Latest price: 6254 yuan/ton

Key points of analysis: On September 20th, the PVC spot market was relatively quiet, with manufacturers’ quotations mainly stable. Some companies increased their prices and high-end prices on the market were lowered. In terms of raw materials, the factory prices of upstream calcium carbide have weakened. In terms of futures, futures closed lower today. Overall, there is insufficient confidence in the PVC spot market, poor trading sentiment, low enthusiasm for downstream procurement, weak overall transaction performance, and generally low spot and order prices.

Prediction: In the short term, the PVC spot market will continue to fluctuate slightly.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of September 19th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 5100 yuan/ton. This week, DMF prices were mainly rising, with the current mainstream price around 5200 yuan/ton.

The overall DMF market has been operating steadily this week, with no significant price changes compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 5100.00 yuan/ton, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is average. The upstream cost support is insufficient, and shipments are slow. Manufacturers are giving up profits and taking orders, resulting in high inventory levels.

Chemical Index: On September 18th, the chemical index stood at 969 points, an increase of 2 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 30.79% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 62.04% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

Business Society DMF analysts believe that the DMF market will operate steadily in the short term.

1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 18th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8189.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.77% compared to September 11th at 8126.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 8200 yuan/ton.

As of September 18th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined straight-run naphtha was 8091.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.90% compared to September 11th at 8019.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 8100 yuan/ton.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Recently, the market for refined naphtha has been fluctuating and rising, with the rise of international crude oil driving the domestic naphtha market. Terminal restructuring is just about to be released, and refineries are actively shipping. However, intermediaries have a strong wait-and-see attitude and operate cautiously.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has continued to rise recently. The main reason is that the expectation of supply tightening has overshadowed concerns about slowing economic growth and increasing US inventory. Saudi Arabia and Russia have extended their plan to reduce crude oil supply by 1.3 million barrels per day until the end of the year, as the sustained supply gap caused by the production reduction is significant, which may lead to tight crude oil supply in the fourth quarter; According to a report released by the EIA on Wednesday, US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 4 million barrels last week, with analysts expecting a decrease of approximately 1.9 million barrels; The demand for gasoline and diesel in the United States remains strong, especially with a significant increase in diesel futures.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of Business Society, the international crude oil price has been operating at a high level recently, with the cost of toluene rising and the factory price of enterprises rising. As of September 18th, the price of toluene was 8380 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.70% compared to September 11th at 8240 yuan/ton; The price of mixed xylene was 8700 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.99% compared to 8530 yuan/ton on September 11th. In terms of PX, the domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, and the operating rate of domestic PX is over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some paraxylene units, the spot supply is relatively normal, and the external price trend of PX has increased due to the rise of crude oil. As of September 18, the price of PX is at 9500 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the recent rise in international crude oil has boosted the domestic naphtha market, and terminal restructuring is just needed to release, with refineries actively pushing up prices. It is expected that the local refined naphtha market will slightly increase in the near future.