1、 Price data

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of Petroleum coke of the local refiner continued to decline this week. On June 18, the average price of Shandong market was 1756.50 yuan/ton, down 5.26% from the price of 1854.00 yuan/ton on June 12.

On June 18, the Petroleum coke commodity index was 136.62, unchanged from yesterday, down 66.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and up 104.25% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of Petroleum coke produced by local refineries continued to decline. Local refineries actively discharged their stocks. The downstream was in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the trading was average. At present, the port Petroleum coke inventory is high and the shipment is active, but the terminal just needs replenishment, and the overall trade is general.

This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose. Mainly due to unexpected retail growth in the United States in May, supported by positive employment data, the expectation of the Federal Reserve ending its interest rate hike process has strengthened. The significant increase in processing capacity of Chinese refineries has boosted oil prices.

The price of calcined coke remained basically stable this week. The basic situation of metal silicon is still poor, the starting situation has improved, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The inventory is high, and the top of the price of metal silicon is under pressure. As of June 18, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the Spot market was 13610 yuan/ton. The downstream electrolytic aluminum market is fluctuating, and there is a trend of inventory depletion in the electrolytic aluminum society. Inventory depletion is evident, with an average price of 18553.33 yuan/ton as of June 18th. Downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see attitude and low enthusiasm for receiving goods, with on-demand procurement being the main focus.

Petroleum coke analysts of the business agency believe that: at present, domestic Petroleum coke is in sufficient supply. In addition, imported Petroleum coke is in high inventory, and the shipment is active. Local refining Petroleum coke is in average delivery. Refineries actively arrange the inventory. Downstream enterprises are in a strong wait-and-see mood, and have low enthusiasm for receiving goods. They mainly purchase on demand. It is expected that the local refining of Petroleum coke in the near future will be dominated by weak points.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the spot price of PVC carbide SG5 has slightly increased this week. The average domestic PVC price on Monday was 5524 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 5554 yuan/ton. The weekly price has increased by 0.54%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of PVC in the domestic Spot market rose slightly this week. At present, the market trading situation is fairly good. The closing price of futures has risen, which has driven the confidence of the Spot market. The spot price has a good attitude and the price has risen. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm is still average, with replenishment based on demand as the main focus. Be cautious in actual transactions and wait and see. As of now, the quotation range for PVC5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 5320-6170 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures rose on June 15th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 70.62 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 2.35 US dollars or 3.4%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $75.67 per barrel, an increase of $2.47 or 3.4%. Unexpected retail growth in the United States in May, supported by positive employment data. The significant increase in processing capacity of Chinese refineries has led to a rebound in the oil market.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by the Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased this week. On Monday, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China was 2883.33 yuan/ton, while on Friday, the average price was 2900 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.58% during the week. Upstream blue charcoal prices have stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. Downstream PVC prices have slightly increased, and demand for calcium carbide is still acceptable.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the spot price of PVC has slightly increased this week. At present, the factory price of calcium carbide has slightly increased, and the support is still acceptable. Futures closed higher on Friday, which was good for the Spot market to a certain extent, but the performance of terminal real estate was poor. Downstream and traders were mainly wait-and-see, replenishing as needed, and the market was cautious. It is expected that the PVC market will operate stronger in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 13, the average price of domestic industrial Lithium hydroxide enterprises was 332500.00 yuan/ton, 1.92% higher than the price on June 1.

Since June, the domestic industrial Lithium hydroxide market has risen slightly and stayed at a high level. Recently, the upstream Spodumene price has been running at a high level, while the upstream Lithium carbonate price has been rising steadily, with strong cost support, which has boosted the price support mentality of the industry. The manufacturers mainly focus on long-term orders, and the downstream purchases are more rigid and need to follow up. The enthusiasm for inquiry is fair, but new orders are limited, and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude.

The upstream Lithium carbonate, according to the commodity market analysis system of the business community: on June 12, the reference price of Lithium carbonate industrial grade was 296200.00, an increase of 2.14% compared with June 1 (290000.00); On June 12, the reference price of Lithium carbonate battery grade was 316200.00, which was 2% higher than that on June 1 (310000.00).

Analysts from Lithium hydroxide business agency believe that at present, there is still some support on the cost side. Demand side procurement just needs to wait and see carefully, and new orders in the market are generally clinched. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic Lithium hydroxide market will stabilize and wait and see, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices.

According to the Commodity Market System of the Business Society, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline weakly from June until June 12th. On June 12th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 723 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.47% compared to the beginning of the month.

Since June, due to weak terminal demand and loose supply, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have weak confidence in price support, and multiple bearish pressures have led to a continued weak and downward trend in the hydrogen peroxide market. The mainstream quotation has dropped to around 700 yuan/ton.

Li Bing, a hydrogen peroxide analyst at Business Society, believes that bearish factors are still present and it is expected that the hydrogen peroxide market will remain weak and weak in the future, with weak upward momentum.

Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of sulfur in East China continued to rise this week. On June 9, the price of sulfur was 840.00 yuan/ton, and on June 3, 810.00 yuan/ton. The price increased by 3.70% within the week and 12.00% month on month.

The sulfur market in East China has been sorted up. The refinery units in the plant are operating normally, the supply of goods in the market is rational, and the enterprises maintain a positive attitude of shipment. The downstream market entry follows up on demand, and the manufacturer’s shipment is relatively smooth. Some enterprises have raised their quotation based on their own shipment and inventory, and the sulfur market has risen slightly. As of now, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is around 870-900 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 750-900 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market is running smoothly. On June 9th, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 182.00 yuan/ton, which is consistent with the price of 182.00 yuan/ton on June 3rd. The operation of sulfuric acid plants is average, market supply is weakened, downstream demand is sluggish, market trading is light, and the mentality of operators is stagnant. Under the weak supply and demand situation, the quotation of sulfuric acid enterprises is temporarily stable.

The market price of monoammonium phosphate has weakened and decreased. On June 9th, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate was 2600.00 yuan/ton. On June 3rd, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate was 2662.50 yuan/ton. During the week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate decreased by 2.35%. Downstream demand continues to be sluggish, with few new orders in the market and sporadic purchases mainly in demand. Operators have a pessimistic mentality, and in order to stimulate shipments, the focus of ammonium chloride transactions has been lowered.

Future Market Forecast

According to sulfur analysts from Business Society, sulfur companies have no inventory pressure or may have positive support, but downstream production capacity utilization is low, limited entry into the market for purchasing, insufficient upward momentum for sulfur, and a lack of effective positive factors on the market. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the short-term sulfur market will remain stagnant and operate, with price or range fluctuations. Specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.