1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 15th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21500.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.90% from the beginning of the month’s price of 21100.00 yuan/ton, and an increase of 18.35% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 15th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 26000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.98% compared to the beginning of the month price of 24766.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 1.30% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In mid September, the domestic price of chloroform significantly rebounded, while the price of hydrofluoric acid continued to rise. As of September 15th, the price of chloroform increased by 9.13% and the price of hydrofluoric acid increased by 2.82%. The cost of raw materials continued to rise, and with cost support, the price of R22 slightly increased during the month.

As of September 15th, the overall price of trichloroethylene in China has remained stable, while the price of hydrofluoric acid has continued to rise, rising by 2.82% during the month. The cost of raw materials has slightly increased, and with the support of downstream demand and costs, the price of R134a in China has continued to rise this week, rising by 2.63%.

In terms of raw materials, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices continue to rise, and with the support of higher raw material costs, it is expected that domestic refrigerant prices will continue to be relatively strong.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business Society believe that, supported by cost and demand, it is expected that the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will continue to be stable, moderate, and strong in the short term.

The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 14th, the DBP price was 10675 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.39% compared to September 7th, when the DBP price was 10325 yuan/ton; Compared to September 1st, the DBP price increased by 1.43% to 10525 yuan/ton. The price of DBP raw material isooctanol has fluctuated and decreased, while the price of n-butanol has fluctuated and increased. The price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and increased, while the cost of plasticizer DBP has increased. The demand for plasticizers is cold, with high costs and low demand. The price of plasticizer DBP has fluctuated and increased.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 14th, the price of n-butanol was 9966.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 1.36% compared to the price of 9833.33 yuan/ton on September 7th. The unexpected shutdown of domestic n-butanol production equipment has led to a decrease in overall operating load, a tightening of spot supply, a fluctuating increase in n-butanol prices, and increased cost support for plasticizer DBP.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuates and rises

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of September 14th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8737.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.87% compared to the price of 8662.50 yuan/ton on September 7th. The price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and increased, and the prices of raw materials for phthalic anhydride have increased. The willingness of phthalic anhydride enterprises to stand up has increased, and the price of phthalic anhydride has increased. The demand for plasticizers is cold, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor. There is a significant resistance to high priced phthalic anhydride, and the future price of phthalic anhydride is mainly stable.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on September 14th was 12200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.72% compared to the price of 12940 yuan/ton on September 7th. The domestic isooctanol plant has started operation and restarted, with sufficient supply of isooctanol. The price of raw material propylene has decreased, downstream demand is weak, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in terms of cost, the prices of isooctanol have fluctuated and decreased, while the prices of n-butanol have fluctuated and increased. The market for phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and increased, and the cost support for plasticizer DBP products has increased; On the demand side, PVC demand growth is less than expected, downstream customers are cautious in buying, and demand for plasticizers is relatively cold. In terms of supply, under the dual pressure of market losses and high inventory levels, DBP manufacturers have reduced production and guaranteed prices, while Shandong Lanfan, Kaifeng Jiuhong and other devices have also reduced production operations. In the future, under the pressure of high cost and low demand, plasticizer enterprises will reduce their load and start operations, resulting in a decrease in DBP supply. Overall, the supply and demand of plasticizer DBP are weak, and high costs support the rise of DBP prices. It is expected that DBP prices will consolidate strongly in the future.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of September 13, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was set at 8566 yuan/ton. Compared with September 8, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 8216 yuan/ton), the price increased by 350 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.26%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in the recent period (9.8-9.13), the domestic butanone market has shown an overall upward trend. Jin Jiu is expected to arrive. As we enter September, the overall focus of the domestic butanone market continues to move upwards. Currently, the trading atmosphere in the butanone market is good, and downstream demand is driven by the upcoming National Day and Mid Autumn Festival. The overall stock is good, and the demand side provides stronger support for the butanone market. The cost side is stable, and the cost support for butanone is also stable. The overall supply and demand transmission in the butanone market is smooth, and there is no pressure on the supply side, Butanone factories and suppliers are actively increasing the price of butanone, with a cumulative increase of around 200 to 500 yuan/ton within seven days. As of September 13th, the domestic market price of butanone is around 8300-8900 yuan/ton, with sporadic high end prices exceeding 9000 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the aftermarket of butanone

At present, new orders on the butanone market are trading well, the pace of downstream stocking has been boosted, the overall market atmosphere is warm, and the mentality of the business owners is firm. The butanone data analyst from the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mostly operate stronger, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand interest rates.

Cobalt prices rebounded and rose in September

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 12th, the cobalt price was 254000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.44% compared to September 1st, when the cobalt price was 250400 yuan/ton. In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased month on month, and the demand for cobalt in the market slowly rebounded. In September, cobalt prices rebounded and rose.

Rising sales of new energy vehicles

According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in August, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 843000 and 846000 units, respectively, with a month on month increase of 4.7% and 8.5%, a year-on-year increase of 22% and 27%, and a market share of 32.8%. According to the analysis of the national passenger car market in August released by the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars reached 798000 units in August, a year-on-year increase of 25.6% and a month on month increase of 8.2%. The production, sales, and wholesale volume of new energy vehicles have both rebounded, and the market for new energy vehicles has rebounded. The demand for cobalt in the market is expected to rebound.

Rising sales of power batteries

According to data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in terms of production, the total production of power and energy storage batteries in China was 73.3 GWh in August, an increase of 7.4% month on month and 46.8% year on year. In terms of sales, the total sales of power and energy storage batteries in China in August were 65.0 GWh, an increase of 13.3% month on month. In terms of loading volume, China’s power battery loading volume in August was 34.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 25.7% and a month on month increase of 8.2%. The production, sales, and installation volume of power batteries have both increased compared to the same period last month. The power battery industry in China continues to develop well, and the demand in the cobalt market is slowly recovering.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the supply and demand in the cobalt market were weak in August, leading to a significant decline in cobalt prices. But as cobalt prices fall below the 250000 yuan mark, there is limited room for cobalt prices to fall. As the traditional peak season of gold, silver, and ten approaches, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have rebounded, and the demand for cobalt in the market has rebounded. In September, cobalt prices rebounded and rose. Overall, the supply of cobalt in the market is stable, and demand is expected to rebound. With cost support, cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price has temporarily stabilized this week, with an average market price of 158.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices increased by 3.05% year-on-year. On September 10th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 41.58, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 69.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 131.26% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have temporarily stabilized this week, and manufacturers’ inventory is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream market price of polyaluminum chloride has stabilized at a low level, with a price of 1700.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 17.92% year-on-year.

Future Market Forecast

In mid to late September, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and rise mainly. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently shown an upward trend, with increased cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market has stabilized at a high level, and downstream procurement willingness is good. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations and gains in the hydrochloric acid market are the main trend.