1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method rutile type titanium dioxide, which has a large sales volume in the domestic market, as an example, according to data monitoring by Business News, the domestic titanium dioxide market price has increased this week. On August 21st, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide powder was 16116.67 yuan/ton. On August 25th, the average price was 16616.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.1% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market price has increased this week. On August 24th, Longqi took the lead in promoting price increases, and other manufacturers followed suit one after another. According to incomplete statistics, currently 13 mainstream titanium dioxide manufacturers have issued price increase notices. Overall, the price increase of domestic titanium dioxide this time is mostly between 700 to 800 yuan/ton, while the increase in foreign trade sales price is mostly around 100 US dollars/ton.

At present, the international foreign trade order situation is good, the domestic terminal market is improving, and the downstream demand for titanium dioxide is increasing. The market trading sentiment is active. The inventory of titanium dioxide on the market is low, and manufacturers have a large number of orders in hand. The focus of the new order transaction price has shifted upwards. Up to now, most domestic quotations for rutile titanium dioxide are between 15800-17900 yuan/ton; The quotation for anatase titanium dioxide is around 13500-14000 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region has increased this week. At present, the operating situation of the titanium ore market is average and still not high. There is not much inventory on site, and the spot market for titanium concentrate is slightly tight. The market quotation is firm and operating. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have active trading activities, but under cost pressure, they still prioritize on demand and purchase with caution. As of now, the tax-free quotation for grade 38 42 titanium ore is around 1580-1600 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for grade 46 10 titanium concentrate is around 2210-2250 yuan/ton, and the quotation for grade 47 20 titanium concentrate is around 2300-2460 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is mainly stable and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has temporarily stabilized this week. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of sulfuric acid this week was 266 yuan/ton. The upstream sulfur market has recently seen a significant increase, with good cost support. The downstream market for hydrofluoric acid and titanium dioxide has risen, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Titanium Dioxide Analyst believes that this week’s high consolidation of sulfuric acid market prices has led to a slight increase in titanium concentrate prices in the Panxi region, and the cost support for titanium dioxide powder is good. The downstream market is active in trading, and the demand for titanium dioxide in the market has increased. In addition, there is a tight inventory on the market, and it is expected that the trend of titanium dioxide will be stronger in the short term. The actual transaction price will be negotiated separately.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 24th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China is 6025.00 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of white carbon black has been stable, with the mainstream price of around 6000 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiations is stable, with downstream demand procurement being the main focus, and the enthusiasm for stocking is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, but the number of new orders is limited.

Chemical Index: On August 23, the chemical index stood at 896 points, an increase of 1 point compared to yesterday, a decrease of 36.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 49.83% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that the stable operation of the white carbon black market is the main focus in the short term.

In July, the export volume of epoxy resin remained at a high level, while the import volume hit a historic low. Currently, there is sufficient supply of epoxy resin in China, and there is still a large amount of production capacity to be put into operation in the second half of the year. It is expected that exports will increase significantly, and the situation of continuous import reduction will continue.

The import volume in July 2023 was 9445 tons, a significant decrease of 46.7% year-on-year and 36.1% month on month, with an average import price of $4354 per ton.

The export volume in July 2023 was 12826 tons, an increase of 0.02% year-on-year. A month on month decrease of 10.2%, with an average export price of 2471 US dollars per ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic ethanol market continued to rise. From August 15th to 22nd, the domestic ethanol price increased from 6750 yuan/ton to 6812 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.93%, a month on month increase of 1.87%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.68%. There are slight regional differences in the domestic ethanol market, with high raw material prices and limited support from ethanol in stock. As a result, the domestic ethanol market prices remain firm.

In terms of cost, as we entered mid August, the impact of rainfall caused by the typhoon in the production and sales areas gradually eased. The arrival volume of corn in ports and deep processing areas continued to increase. After effectively replenishing the corn inventory of ports and deep processing enterprises, the corn purchase price was lowered, causing high volatility in the domestic corn market. On August 22nd, the benchmark price of corn in Shangshang Society was 2798.57 yuan/ton. There are temporary positive factors in the cost of ethanol.

On the supply side, the Fukang device was shut down and the Tianyu device resumed in mid August; Zhaodong Food resumed around August 15th, but production was limited. Longhe and Romet have plans to start production after the raw materials arrive at the port in the middle of the year. Henan Houyuan Device Storage and Maintenance Plan. The ethanol supply is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream chemical companies are just in need of procurement, and large ethyl acetate factories are gradually returning to full capacity. At the end of August, some factories in East China have maintenance plans. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, cost and supply support are high, and demand is expected to break through. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market price has slightly increased this week, with urea prices rising from 2577.14 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2640.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.44%. Weekend prices increased by 12.24% year-on-year. On August 20th, the urea commodity index was 122.79, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 19.39% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 120.85% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Good cost support, weakened downstream demand, and tight urea supply

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly increased this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has slightly increased this week: the price of liquefied natural gas has significantly increased, from 3652.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3772.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.29%, and the weekend price has decreased by 43.53% year-on-year; The price of anthracite has stabilized at a low level, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) at 1130 yuan/ton this week; The price of liquid ammonia has slightly increased, rising from 3366.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3400.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.99%. The weekend price has decreased by 9.33% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices have slightly increased, providing good support for urea prices. This week, the downstream melamine price of urea has stabilized at a low level, with a price of 7075.00 yuan/ton.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand has weakened, while industrial demand is average. The use of fertilizers in summer has basically ended, with sporadic fertilizer supplementation being the main focus, and agricultural demand has weakened. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is normal. Board and melamine enterprises are operating at a low level, with a focus on purchasing on demand. From a supply perspective, the daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating a tight supply.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late August, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has slightly increased, and urea costs are well supported. But downstream agricultural demand has basically ended, and industrial demand is average. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, and the supply is tight. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline.