The price of plasticizer DOP increased significantly in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 28th, the price of DOP was 12133.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.65% compared to the price of 10583.33 yuan/ton on August 1st. June August is the traditional off-season for plasticizers, but this year’s off-season is not weak. Since mid June, DOP prices have bottomed out and rebounded, hitting new highs repeatedly. The price of plasticizer DOP increased significantly in August and reached a new high for the year.

The price of isooctanol increased significantly in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on August 28th was 12200 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.20% compared to the price of 9983.33 yuan/ton on August 1st. The planned production of domestic isooctanol units and unexpected vehicle pick-up have led to a tight supply of isooctanol, low inventory of isooctanol, and an upward shift in market focus. In August, the price of isooctanol continued to skyrocket. The price of isooctanol has skyrocketed, and the cost of plasticizer DOP raw materials has increased. As the price of isooctanol has risen to a high level, buying sentiment towards pursuing higher prices has become cautious. With the restart of the isooctanol plant, the supply expectation of the isooctanol market is loose, and the sustained rise of isooctanol in the future is limited in support.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride in August stopped rising and stabilized

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of August 28th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8637.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.02% compared to the price of 8550 yuan/ton on August 1st; The price of phthalic anhydride decreased by 1.29% compared to 8750 yuan/ton on August 10th. Downstream production has declined, demand for phthalic anhydride has weakened, coupled with an increase in production in the phthalic anhydride industry, leading to an increase in market supply expectations and a downward pressure on the market. Moreover, the domestic price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride rebounded after a decline, while the price of ortho benzene stabilized after an increase. The support for the price increase of ortho phthalic anhydride weakened, and the price difference between ortho phthalic anhydride and naphthalene phthalic anhydride widened. The downward pressure on ortho phthalic anhydride still exists. In the future, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride will stabilize, the cost of plasticizer raw materials will stabilize, and the downward pressure on plasticizers will still exist.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 28th, the price increases of various products in the plastic sector compared to July 1st, from high to low, are PVC (12.48%), PP (wire drawing) (7.28%), and LLDPE (4.89%). Since July, as the plastic industry approaches the traditional peak season, the market has started to heat up, and various products in the plastic sector have seen a rise, with plastic futures rising at the same time. In the two months since July, the plastic industry has been dominated by Lido. On the macro level, inflation in the United States has cooled beyond expectations, the necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has decreased, and concerns about economic recession have eased. In terms of cost, the seasonal peak demand from refineries and OPEC production cuts in oil producing countries have led to a strengthening of international crude oil prices. At the same time, downstream plastic enterprises are gradually increasing their stocking, improving consumption follow-up, and enhancing market momentum. Under the dual support of rebounding consumption and high costs, the prices of plastic futures and three materials have fluctuated and risen.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that although August is the traditional off-season for plasticizers, the upstream and downstream of the plasticizer industry chain are both rising against the trend. In terms of raw materials, in August, the production of isooctanol was at a low level, and the supply of isooctanol was insufficient. The price of isooctanol continued to rise sharply, and the downstream demand for phthalic anhydride was weak. The support for benzene raw materials was no longer there. In August, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped rising and fell, and the overall cost of plasticizer product DOP raw materials increased significantly; The downstream plastic futures market has rebounded, and the demand for plasticizers has rebounded; The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is low, and the supply of plasticizers is tight. In the future, as the peak season approaches, the demand for plasticizers is expected to rebound. However, in September, upstream and downstream enterprises of plasticizers are expected to resume construction, and the supply of raw materials such as isooctanol and plasticizer DOP is expected to increase, resulting in a double increase in supply and demand; The supply of isooctanol has increased, the support for the rise of isooctanol has weakened, and the expected high price of raw material isooctanol has fallen; Downstream customers have a low acceptance of high prices. As the supply of plasticizers increases, the downward pressure on plasticizers increases, and it is expected that the high price of plasticizer DOP will fall back.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method rutile type titanium dioxide, which has a large sales volume in the domestic market, as an example, according to data monitoring by Business News, the domestic titanium dioxide market price has increased this week. On August 21st, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide powder was 16116.67 yuan/ton. On August 25th, the average price was 16616.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.1% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market price has increased this week. On August 24th, Longqi took the lead in promoting price increases, and other manufacturers followed suit one after another. According to incomplete statistics, currently 13 mainstream titanium dioxide manufacturers have issued price increase notices. Overall, the price increase of domestic titanium dioxide this time is mostly between 700 to 800 yuan/ton, while the increase in foreign trade sales price is mostly around 100 US dollars/ton.

At present, the international foreign trade order situation is good, the domestic terminal market is improving, and the downstream demand for titanium dioxide is increasing. The market trading sentiment is active. The inventory of titanium dioxide on the market is low, and manufacturers have a large number of orders in hand. The focus of the new order transaction price has shifted upwards. Up to now, most domestic quotations for rutile titanium dioxide are between 15800-17900 yuan/ton; The quotation for anatase titanium dioxide is around 13500-14000 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region has increased this week. At present, the operating situation of the titanium ore market is average and still not high. There is not much inventory on site, and the spot market for titanium concentrate is slightly tight. The market quotation is firm and operating. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have active trading activities, but under cost pressure, they still prioritize on demand and purchase with caution. As of now, the tax-free quotation for grade 38 42 titanium ore is around 1580-1600 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for grade 46 10 titanium concentrate is around 2210-2250 yuan/ton, and the quotation for grade 47 20 titanium concentrate is around 2300-2460 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is mainly stable and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has temporarily stabilized this week. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of sulfuric acid this week was 266 yuan/ton. The upstream sulfur market has recently seen a significant increase, with good cost support. The downstream market for hydrofluoric acid and titanium dioxide has risen, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Titanium Dioxide Analyst believes that this week’s high consolidation of sulfuric acid market prices has led to a slight increase in titanium concentrate prices in the Panxi region, and the cost support for titanium dioxide powder is good. The downstream market is active in trading, and the demand for titanium dioxide in the market has increased. In addition, there is a tight inventory on the market, and it is expected that the trend of titanium dioxide will be stronger in the short term. The actual transaction price will be negotiated separately.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 24th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China is 6025.00 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of white carbon black has been stable, with the mainstream price of around 6000 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiations is stable, with downstream demand procurement being the main focus, and the enthusiasm for stocking is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, but the number of new orders is limited.

Chemical Index: On August 23, the chemical index stood at 896 points, an increase of 1 point compared to yesterday, a decrease of 36.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 49.83% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that the stable operation of the white carbon black market is the main focus in the short term.

In July, the export volume of epoxy resin remained at a high level, while the import volume hit a historic low. Currently, there is sufficient supply of epoxy resin in China, and there is still a large amount of production capacity to be put into operation in the second half of the year. It is expected that exports will increase significantly, and the situation of continuous import reduction will continue.

The import volume in July 2023 was 9445 tons, a significant decrease of 46.7% year-on-year and 36.1% month on month, with an average import price of $4354 per ton.

The export volume in July 2023 was 12826 tons, an increase of 0.02% year-on-year. A month on month decrease of 10.2%, with an average export price of 2471 US dollars per ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic ethanol market continued to rise. From August 15th to 22nd, the domestic ethanol price increased from 6750 yuan/ton to 6812 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.93%, a month on month increase of 1.87%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.68%. There are slight regional differences in the domestic ethanol market, with high raw material prices and limited support from ethanol in stock. As a result, the domestic ethanol market prices remain firm.

In terms of cost, as we entered mid August, the impact of rainfall caused by the typhoon in the production and sales areas gradually eased. The arrival volume of corn in ports and deep processing areas continued to increase. After effectively replenishing the corn inventory of ports and deep processing enterprises, the corn purchase price was lowered, causing high volatility in the domestic corn market. On August 22nd, the benchmark price of corn in Shangshang Society was 2798.57 yuan/ton. There are temporary positive factors in the cost of ethanol.

On the supply side, the Fukang device was shut down and the Tianyu device resumed in mid August; Zhaodong Food resumed around August 15th, but production was limited. Longhe and Romet have plans to start production after the raw materials arrive at the port in the middle of the year. Henan Houyuan Device Storage and Maintenance Plan. The ethanol supply is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream chemical companies are just in need of procurement, and large ethyl acetate factories are gradually returning to full capacity. At the end of August, some factories in East China have maintenance plans. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, cost and supply support are high, and demand is expected to break through. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may experience strong fluctuations in the short term.