This week, domestic cobalt prices followed suit

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, the cobalt price on April 23 was 219500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.75% compared to the cobalt price of 223400 yuan/ton on April 15; The cobalt price has dropped by 2.01% compared to 224000 yuan/ton on April 1st. The proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased, and the demand for cobalt in the market is less favorable than expected. International cobalt prices have fallen, and domestic cobalt prices have fallen again this week.

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, cobalt prices have continued to decline recently, and this week the decline in cobalt prices has accelerated, with the weekly decline in cobalt prices reaching the largest decline in 24 years.

The proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased

According to data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in terms of vehicle installation volume, in March, the installed volume of ternary batteries was 11.3GWh, accounting for 32.4% of the total installed volume, a year-on-year increase of 29.7% and a month on month increase of 62.9%; From January to March, the cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries was 30.9Wh, accounting for 36.2% of the total installed capacity, with a year-on-year increase of 47.8%. The installed capacity of ternary batteries increased on a month on month basis, but the proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries decreased. The demand for cobalt in ternary batteries grew less than expected, which is bearish for the cobalt market.

International cobalt price decline

According to the cobalt price trend chart of the London futures trading market, it can be seen that cobalt prices have been weakly consolidating since mid March, and cobalt prices have fallen this week. The decline in international cobalt prices is bearish for the domestic cobalt market.

Overview and Outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at Business Society, the proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased, and the demand for cobalt in the market has not increased as expected. The international cobalt price has fallen, which is negative for the domestic cobalt market. It is expected that cobalt prices will consolidate weakly at a low level in the future.

Sinopec East China Phenol Ketone Enterprise has raised its acetone price by 450 yuan/ton, with an execution rate of 8200 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China Phenol Ketone Enterprise has raised its acetone price by 450 yuan/ton, with an execution rate of 8150-8200 yuan/ton. The market is facing tight supply of goods, and the market in various mainstream regions has seen a significant increase with the increase in factory listed prices. The procurement intensity is average, and the trading volume needs to be released. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the national acetone market has risen from 7487 yuan/ton on April 15th to 8112.5 yuan/ton on April 22nd, with a cumulative increase of 8.35%, with a daily increase of 7% on April 22nd.

On the 22nd, mainstream domestic factories significantly increased their prices by 450 yuan/ton, implementing a price range of 8150-8200 yuan/ton.

On April 22nd, the acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country were as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Rise and fall range (4.15-22)

East China region/ 8250./950

Shandong region/ 8000./700

Yanshan region/ 8000./600

South China region/ 8150./850

The raw materials have been significantly driven, the supply of pure benzene has tightened, and prices continue to rise.

From a downstream perspective, in the MIBK industry, Anhui Zhonghuifa and Hunan Changde are planning to add new units for production. If these two units are successfully put into operation, it will significantly increase demand for acetone and have a significant impact on their market.

The supply side has tightened, and the demand side has also improved. It is expected to remain strong in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the PVC spot market price fluctuated slightly this week, with a slight decrease. On Monday, the average domestic PVC price was 5566 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 5662 yuan/ton. The price was reduced by 0.07% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC spot market prices have fluctuated slightly this week, with a slight decrease. Overall, the confidence in the spot market is average, with little change in prices on the market. Manufacturers’ quotations are generally stable, and traders’ prices are relatively flexible. Downstream procurement is relatively cautious, with a strong wait-and-see attitude and a weak market atmosphere, resulting in average transactions. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5300-5750 yuan/ton.

On April 18th, international crude oil futures continued to decline. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $82.10 per barrel, a decrease of $0.05 or 0.1%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $87.11 per barrel, a decrease of $0.18 or 0.2%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers have slightly decreased. On Monday, the average price of domestic calcium carbide was 3016.67 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 3000 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 0.55% during the week. The PVC market is experiencing low volatility, and the process of removing calcium carbide inventory is relatively slow.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society PVC analysts believe that the PVC spot market has experienced slight fluctuations this week. Upstream calcium carbide prices have slightly decreased, with average cost support. The performance of PVC in both markets is average, with little change on the market and average market confidence. It is expected that the PVC spot market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate within the range in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market has slightly increased. On April 17, the rare earth index was 391 points, a decrease of 61.17% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 44.28% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The prices of domestic neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have slightly increased. As of the 18th, the price of neodymium oxide was 385000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.99% this week; The price of neodymium metal is 502500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.03% this week; The price of praseodymium oxide is 392500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.61% this week; The price of praseodymium metal is 527500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.44% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 490000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.03% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 387500 yuan/ton, with a 1.97% increase this week.

Recently, the domestic light rare earth market prices have risen, with increased transactions and improved inquiries in the domestic rare earth market. Downstream enterprises have increased their purchases recently, and production and separation enterprises in Inner Mongolia have resumed work; In addition, some magnetic material companies have started purchasing, leading to an increase in the price trend of light rare earths. Recently, some rare earth raw material imports have decreased, downstream manufacturers have depleted their inventory, and purchasing sentiment has increased, leading to an upward trend in the rare earth market.

According to statistics, in March 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 863000 and 883000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.1% and 35.3%, respectively. From January to March 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.115 million and 2.09 million respectively, an increase of 28.2% and 31.8% year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, providing strong support for the rare earth market, with the domestic rare earth market mainly rising.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. Recently, two domestic departments announced the first batch of rare earth mining indicators for 2024, with a slowdown in the growth rate of the indicators. In addition, China’s rare earth exports from January to March 2024 were 13483.5 tons, while China’s rare earth exports in March were 4709.6 tons; It has a certain positive support effect on the domestic market, and the light rare earth market has slightly risen.

Market forecast: Recently, magnetic material companies have seen a surge in purchasing and ordering sentiment, and the inquiry situation has improved compared to before. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly rise in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of styrene in Shandong was 9314 yuan/ton on April 1st, and 9560.00 yuan/ton on April 17th, an increase of 2.64%. The current price has increased by 12.69% year-on-year.

styrene

The market price of styrene continued to rise in the first half of April. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has continued to rise in the past three months, and the recent market trend has been good. International oil prices have risen for six consecutive years, with pure benzene prices rising at high levels, strong cost support, low port inventories, and still expected to decline. Downstream terminal demand is mainly in demand, while the styrene market continues to rise.

Cost side

In the first half of April, the overall increase in pure benzene in China was good. Affected by the continuous rise in crude oil, the cost support for pure benzene is strong. In April, many domestic refineries underwent centralized maintenance, resulting in a decline in supply. Most refineries in Shandong region had low inventories, and the quoted prices continued to rise. As of April 17th, the mainstream spot price of pure benzene in the Shandong market is 8800 yuan/ton. Compared to the beginning of the year, currently pure benzene is still in the high range, which can provide some cost support for styrene.

Supply side

In April, there were more inspections of the styrene plant, and due to profit recovery, the operating rate of styrene increased by 67% compared to the previous month. At present, the inventory of styrene in East China ports is 147000 tons, a decrease compared to the previous month. There is still an expectation of destocking, and domestic supply remains at a relatively low level, which is beneficial for the styrene market.

Demand side

In the first half of April, all three downstream markets of styrene rose. The PS market has seen a slight increase, driven by the demand for home appliance packaging. The fast material circulation speed in East and South China has accelerated, and the overall transaction atmosphere has accelerated. The market is expected to rise. In the first half of April, domestic ABS prices rose at a high level. From a fundamental perspective, the upstream three materials of ABS are expected to maintain a high level of support in the future market, with strong expectations for the cost side support level of ABS. The ABS polymerization plant is still operating at a relatively low level, with supply tending to be tight. EPS is supported by the cost side, and the terminal air conditioning industry is entering a peak season. EPS is rising in the market under dual positive conditions.

Technical analysis

There is a high possibility of an increase in the future market of styrene, and spot prices may continue to rise. According to the prediction model of the Business Society Commodity Analysis System, since December 17, 2023, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 14, 2024, it was estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. a 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 32.24%.

Historical price monitoring [low to medium]: Since the beginning of 2024, the price of styrene has been continuously in an upward trend. The current monitoring positions are 1-year high, 2-year medium high, and 3-year medium high. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of ABS in the past three years is 8922.28 yuan/ton, with a median value of 9145.95 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 7163.33 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 11128.57 yuan/ton. The low price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 2386.67 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past three years) is -1578.57 yuan/ton.

According to the styrene data analyst from Business Society, the recent arrival of styrene at East China ports has been relatively low, continuing the trend of destocking. EPS and PS production have increased, and the downstream industry chain ecology has improved. The supply of raw material pure benzene is low, and the market is operating at a high level. Business Society analysts expect a slight increase in the styrene market.