1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has risen this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 795 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 815 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.52% and a decrease of 22.53% compared to the same period last year. On September 7th, the chlor alkali index was 1124 points, an increase of 4 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 47.18% from the cycle’s highest point of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 57.87% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of domestic caustic soda has slightly increased this week. The current average market price in Shandong region is around 780-830 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for 32% liquid alkali in Hebei region is around 820-840 yuan/ton. This week, the overall price of caustic soda has risen, with a slight contraction in supply. In terms of downstream alumina, there has been a recovery compared to the previous period, and procurement has been more active compared to the previous period. The market has a clear intention of boosting prices.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 35th week of 2023 (8.28-9.1), there were a total of 5 products that rose or fell in the chlor alkali industry price list, 0 products that fell, and 2 products that rose or fell to 0. The main commodities that have increased include: baking soda (10.13%), light soda ash (7.33%), and flake soda (2.90%); This week’s average rise and fall was 3.24%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has risen this week, and the supply side has narrowed. There is still a demand for replenishment of downstream alumina in the near future. Overall, it is expected that caustic soda may strengthen its operating market in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of September 7, 2023, the market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was referenced at 8800 yuan/ton. Compared with September 3 (reference price of propylene glycol 8600), the price increased by 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.33%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that in the first week of September (9.3-9.7), the domestic propylene glycol market as a whole showed an upward trend. This week, the trading atmosphere on the propylene glycol market was good, with new downstream orders relatively stable. The overall focus of the propylene glycol market remained stable and continued to operate slightly stronger. Some propylene glycol factories have raised the price of propylene glycol by around 200 yuan/ton. As of September 7th, the domestic propylene glycol market price has been considered around 8700-9000 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the mentality of propylene glycol field operators is good, and downstream demand is mainly for stable orders. It has been heard that some factories have recently planned parking and maintenance, and it is expected that the overall supply side pressure will be relatively small in the short term. Therefore, the propylene glycol data analyst from Business Society predicts that in the near future, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly operate in a stable, medium, and strong manner, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of the domestic heavy rare earth market has increased. On September 5th, the rare earth index was 502 points, an increase of 4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 50.15% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 85.24% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The price trend of domestic dysprosium oxide, dysprosium iron alloy, and metal dysprosium has increased. As of the 6th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.58 million yuan/ton, an increase of 3.61% compared to the 1st price; The price of dysprosium iron alloy is 2.52 million yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70% compared to the previous day’s price; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.31 million yuan/ton, an increase of 5.08% compared to the previous day’s price; The domestic price of terbium series is mainly increasing, with the domestic price of terbium oxide reaching 8.6 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium reaching 10.6 million yuan/ton.

The heavy rare earth market prices have continued to rise in September. Due to environmental reasons, some rare earth mining enterprises have limited production, and some rare earth manufacturers have voluntarily reduced production, which has led to a decrease in spot inventory in the market. Separation plants and metal factories in Sichuan region will have varying degrees of production reduction and shutdown behavior, resulting in tight supply in the rare earth industry and an upward trend in rare earth prices. Recently, there has been continuous news of customs closures in Myanmar, which has raised market expectations for future rare earth prices and led to an increase in the prices quoted by holders. As the traditional peak season of “nine gold and ten silver” approaches, the demand for new energy vehicles, industrial robots and other terminals is also constantly increasing. The rare earth market orders are rising, and multiple positive factors are combined, leading to an increase in the price trend of heavy rare earth in China.

According to statistics, in July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 805000 and 780000 units respectively, with a month on month increase of 2.8% in production and a month on month decrease of 3.2% in sales, with year-on-year growth of 30.6% and 31.6%, respectively. From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 4.591 million and 4.526 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 40% and 41.7%, respectively. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, coupled with the opening of the Golden Nine Silver Ten Year Plan, the demand for new energy has increased, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market prices. The price trend of the domestic heavy rare earth market has also increased.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export volume in July was 5425.6 tons; From January to July, the cumulative total export volume of rare earths from China was 31661.6 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The export volume of rare earth commodities from China increased, which to some extent supported the prices of the rare earth market.

Future Forecast: The current rare earth market is showing a strong demand and tight supply overall pattern. In the short term, the price trend of the heavy rare earth market is rising, and in the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources. Dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial machinery, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global rare earth permanent magnet market demand is expected to continue to grow, Long term bullish market prices in the rare earth industry.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Business Society, since August, copper prices have fallen first and then risen. The main reason is that the two major bearish factors affecting prices in the early stages of mid to late August, namely the excessive issuance of bonds by Focus America and the slow recovery of the domestic economy, have experienced a significant emotional shift. Subsequently, the weakening of the US dollar index and strong expectations for stable domestic growth have also driven copper prices to rebound from the bottom. Entering the traditional peak demand season in September, there is an expectation that copper prices will have to rise. However, in early September, the rebound trend showed signs of turning around, with a daily decline of 0.63% on the 5th and prices returning to 60000 yuan.

Macroscopic emotional repetition

Although the market began to weaken the impact of excessive bond issuance in mid to late August, and the US dollar index subsequently fell from high levels. In addition, the Federal Reserve maintained a tightening tone, but the resilience of the US economy was difficult to shake off recession expectations and inflation, although in line with expectations, was also fluctuating. The probability of suspending rate hikes in September was almost certain, but the probability of rate hikes in November or December increased. On the domestic side, the tone of stable growth remains unchanged, and policies such as lowering interest rates on existing housing loans and regulating real estate have been implemented, boosting market confidence.

Loose supply

In terms of copper concentrate, the domestic TC quotation remains relatively high, indicating that the expectation for domestic copper concentrate is still relatively loose. In terms of refined copper production, crude refining maintenance increased in September, but the impact on refining capacity was relatively small. The rise in copper prices and premiums may stimulate refining enterprises to maintain high production operations. The estimated production of electrolytic copper in August was 986100 tons, an increase of 6.5% month on month and 20.34% year-on-year.

Import decline

In July, the net import of refined copper decreased by 2.35% year-on-year to 259800 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 12.52%; The import volume of scrap copper in July decreased by 12.12% month on month to 119300 metal tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%.

Different levels of demand

In August, the operating rates of pole making, copper materials, and copper rods slightly decreased, while copper plates, foils, and wires and cables slightly rebounded. The demand for copper still focuses on the increase in engineering orders such as power grid and electricity, but the actual performance of real estate demand is still poor.

LME inventory

According to LME inventory, recent LME copper inventory is still on an upward trend, at a higher level this year, suppressing the rise in copper prices. The monthly inventory of refined copper in China decreased by 11000 tons to 88600 tons, while the inventory in bonded areas decreased by 9800 tons to 49300 tons.

Comparison of annual copper prices

According to the annual price comparison chart of copper, in the past five years, copper prices have been fluctuating at a basic high level in September, with no particularly significant upward trend.

Based on the above situation, multiple large and medium-sized banks have announced a reduction in the interest rates of existing housing loans, and five cities in China have announced the implementation of “buying houses but not loans”. The multiple benefits of the real estate market have come in droves, providing support for copper prices. LME copper inventory is at a high level, and copper supply is still loose, putting pressure on copper prices. Based on the patterns of low and peak seasons over the years, there is no obvious “Golden Nine” upward trend in copper prices in September. Copper price increases will suppress demand, and companies do not accept high prices. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate at high levels in September.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market fluctuated and rose in August. From August 1st to 31st, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 17150 yuan/ton to 17516 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.14% during the cycle and a maximum amplitude of 3.60%. The price increased by 18.36% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, production enterprises controlled the quantity of shipments, but the market supply was insufficient. Traders’ quotations were skyrocketing, leading to stronger follow-up. In mid month, due to the impact of factory maintenance by production enterprises, the spot filling is limited, the market atmosphere is high, and the support capacity is relatively outstanding. The domestic aggregated MDI market price is slowly driving. In the latter half of the month, the overall supply is still relatively limited, and the overall market price fluctuation is slow, with a narrow range of consolidation.

On the supply side, the overall supply is relatively limited. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market remained at a high level in August. The rise in crude oil has boosted refinery prices, with downstream and traders actively following suit and the transaction is still acceptable. Raw material aniline: The aniline market fluctuated and rose in August. The fundamentals of aniline are relatively strong, and the bidding prices of northern factories have increased, with strong cost support. The follow-up on the demand side is normal, and with the fulfillment of Wanhua’s maintenance plan within the past month, the market’s positive guidance is obvious. There is no pressure on aniline factory shipments, and the quotation continues to rise. The cost side of short-term aggregated MDI continues to be strong.

On the demand side, under the traditional peak season of the pipeline industry, the overall performance is average, while other industries have not changed much recently. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the cost side is supported by high levels, and the overall support capacity of the supply side is strengthening. With the downstream cold industry still in a state of follow-up, analysts of Business Society’s aggregated MDI predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly high and volatile