According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from August 7th to 10th, the market price of butadiene in China increased from 7376 yuan/ton to 7551 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.37% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 15.84%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.19%. During the week, crude oil prices continued to rise, and Sinopec raised its quotation to support the seller’s mentality. However, Luqing Petrochemical has increased its supply of goods for export, and there are also plans for downstream enterprises to sell raw materials. The news of increased supply has brought significant pressure on the market atmosphere, and the domestic butadiene market has improved.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International crude oil prices continue to rise, with US WTI crude oil prices hitting a nearly 9-month high. The main reason is that market supply concerns continue to ferment, coupled with the phased positive trend of the peak oil consumption season. As of the close on August 9th, the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was at $84.40 per barrel, an increase of $1.48 or 1.8%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $87.55 per barrel, an increase of $1.38 or 1.6%.

In terms of naphtha, the domestic naphtha market is at a high level of consolidation, while the international crude oil market remains at a high level. However, there is a lack of substantial positive news in terminal demand, and trading is mainly in demand. As of August 10th, the benchmark price of Shangshang Society’s naphtha is 8089.00 yuan/ton. The cost of butadiene is a favorable factor.

On the supply side, the main production enterprise Sinopec and its sales companies have raised the price of butadiene by 200 yuan/ton, and as of August 10th, the listed price was 7600 yuan/ton. Luqing Petrochemical has increased its supply of goods for export, and there are also plans for downstream enterprises to sell raw materials, resulting in an increase in market spot supply. Short term bearish impact on butadiene supply side.

On the demand side, the trend of downstream synthetic rubber products is slightly different. Some units have restarted, and the production capacity utilization rate of butadiene mainly downstream butadiene rubber and SBS has increased month on month. As of August 10th, the benchmark price of Shangshe butadiene rubber is 11880.00 yuan/ton, and the benchmark price of butadiene rubber is 11320.00 yuan/ton. Downstream demand continues, and there are sporadic equipment maintenance and parking for butadiene rubber. The demand for butadiene is mixed.

On August 9th, the closing price was closed due to Singapore’s National Day holiday, and the Asian butadiene outer market was closed. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $445-455 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 535-545 euros per ton.

In the future market forecast, due to the positive impact of crude oil and external markets in the short term, merchants are clearly reluctant to sell, but the market supply is relatively abundant, and downstream inquiries are relatively cautious. Butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market is entering a stage of consolidation and volatility.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of August 8, 2023, the market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was referenced at 7866 yuan/ton. Compared with August 2 (reference price of propylene glycol 7700), the price increased by 166 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.16%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that the domestic propylene glycol market has shown an overall upward trend in the recent period (8.2-8.8). At the beginning of the month, the overall supply of propylene glycol in China was tight, with tight spot circulation on the market. With no pressure on supply, some propylene glycol factories and suppliers raised the price of propylene glycol by around 200-300 yuan/ton, and the overall market situation saw an upward trend. As of August 8th, the domestic propylene glycol market price was referenced around 7800-8100 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the trading atmosphere in the propylene glycol market is mild. It is expected that in the short term, the overall stability of the domestic propylene glycol market is mainly strong, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

This week (7.31-8.7), the acrylonitrile market continued to rise slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 7th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 8400 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.38% from last Monday’s 8125 yuan/ton. At present, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile in the market is between 8300 to 8550 yuan/ton. Narrow fluctuations in raw material prices still provide cost support for acrylonitrile; Downstream construction has slightly increased, with a slight increase in demand for acrylonitrile compared to the previous period; The increase in the operation of acrylonitrile units has somewhat suppressed the upward trend of acrylonitrile.

This week (7.31-8.7), the domestic acrylonitrile operating rate has increased compared to the previous period.

This week (7.31-8.7), the raw material propylene market fluctuated slightly and is still at a stage high, with the cost of acrylonitrile continuing to support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 31st, the domestic propylene price was 6733 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.07% from last Monday’s 6738 yuan/ton.

It is understood that downstream ABS prices have risen this week, with the start of construction around 8.3%, a slight increase compared to the previous period; The nitrile rubber orchidization plant has partially restarted, and the industry has recently seen a slight increase in production, while acrylic fiber production has remained at a low level. Overall, the downstream main industry of acrylonitrile has seen a slight increase in construction, while the demand for acrylonitrile support has slightly increased.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society Acrylonitrile Analysts believe that in the future, the supply side pressure is increasing, and there is some support in the demand side. In addition to the high cost side, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market price will be strong in the short term, and downstream demand progress still needs to be paid attention to in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 7666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8100.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 5.65%. Weekend prices increased by 21.50% year-on-year. On August 6th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 41.12, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 61.05% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 36.52% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have slightly increased their quotations this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 6738.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6645.75 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.37%. Weekend prices fell 7.45% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, and cost support has weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 9350.00 yuan/ton. The low level consolidation of the new pentanediol market and average downstream demand have a bearish impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

In mid August, the trend of isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream neopentyl glycol market has stabilized at a low level, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of August 4, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 868 yuan/ton. Compared with July 31, 2023 (reference price of phosphate ore is 878 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.14%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (7.31-8.04), the overall market situation of mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore in China showed a weak and slight decline. The overall demand for downstream phosphate fertilizer and fertilizer in the phosphate rock terminal market is weak, and the support provided to phosphate rock from bottom to top is limited. Currently, although the downstream yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid market has rebounded, the support provided to phosphate rock has not yet met expectations. In some regions of China, mining companies have adjusted the price of phosphate rock in a narrow range, with a reduction of around 20 yuan/ton. As of August 4th, the domestic phosphate rock market price is referenced around 750-980 yuan/ton.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market Trend of Phosphate Rock

At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate ore field is average, and the overall pace of phosphate ore shipment is relatively slow, with weak transactions on the field. The phosphate ore data analyst of the Business Society believes that there is still a slight downward risk in the domestic phosphate ore market in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.