This week (7.31-8.7), the acrylonitrile market continued to rise slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 7th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 8400 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.38% from last Monday’s 8125 yuan/ton. At present, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile in the market is between 8300 to 8550 yuan/ton. Narrow fluctuations in raw material prices still provide cost support for acrylonitrile; Downstream construction has slightly increased, with a slight increase in demand for acrylonitrile compared to the previous period; The increase in the operation of acrylonitrile units has somewhat suppressed the upward trend of acrylonitrile.

This week (7.31-8.7), the domestic acrylonitrile operating rate has increased compared to the previous period.

This week (7.31-8.7), the raw material propylene market fluctuated slightly and is still at a stage high, with the cost of acrylonitrile continuing to support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 31st, the domestic propylene price was 6733 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.07% from last Monday’s 6738 yuan/ton.

It is understood that downstream ABS prices have risen this week, with the start of construction around 8.3%, a slight increase compared to the previous period; The nitrile rubber orchidization plant has partially restarted, and the industry has recently seen a slight increase in production, while acrylic fiber production has remained at a low level. Overall, the downstream main industry of acrylonitrile has seen a slight increase in construction, while the demand for acrylonitrile support has slightly increased.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society Acrylonitrile Analysts believe that in the future, the supply side pressure is increasing, and there is some support in the demand side. In addition to the high cost side, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market price will be strong in the short term, and downstream demand progress still needs to be paid attention to in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 7666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8100.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 5.65%. Weekend prices increased by 21.50% year-on-year. On August 6th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 41.12, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 61.05% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 36.52% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have slightly increased their quotations this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 6738.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6645.75 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.37%. Weekend prices fell 7.45% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, and cost support has weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 9350.00 yuan/ton. The low level consolidation of the new pentanediol market and average downstream demand have a bearish impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

In mid August, the trend of isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream neopentyl glycol market has stabilized at a low level, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of August 4, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 868 yuan/ton. Compared with July 31, 2023 (reference price of phosphate ore is 878 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.14%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (7.31-8.04), the overall market situation of mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore in China showed a weak and slight decline. The overall demand for downstream phosphate fertilizer and fertilizer in the phosphate rock terminal market is weak, and the support provided to phosphate rock from bottom to top is limited. Currently, although the downstream yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid market has rebounded, the support provided to phosphate rock has not yet met expectations. In some regions of China, mining companies have adjusted the price of phosphate rock in a narrow range, with a reduction of around 20 yuan/ton. As of August 4th, the domestic phosphate rock market price is referenced around 750-980 yuan/ton.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market Trend of Phosphate Rock

At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate ore field is average, and the overall pace of phosphate ore shipment is relatively slow, with weak transactions on the field. The phosphate ore data analyst of the Business Society believes that there is still a slight downward risk in the domestic phosphate ore market in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, from July 27 to August 3, the average price of Cyclohexanone in the domestic market rose from 8785 yuan/ton to 9500 yuan/ton, up 8.13% within the week, 17.70% month on month, down 5.75% year on year. The listing of raw material pure benzene has been raised to 7600 yuan/ton for many times. The cost is well supported. The downstream chemical fiber and solvent just need to follow up. The supply of Cyclohexanone commodity is average. Driven by the cost, the market price decreases and the transaction focus increases.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene and the domestic market price of pure benzene continue to rise significantly. The domestic supply of pure benzene has slightly increased, but downstream demand has rebounded, and it is necessary to actively buy and enter the market; After the continuous decline in port inventory, traders have limited inventory and spot goods, and cargo holders are reluctant to sell at high prices. On August 3rd, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangye Society was 7542.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.50% compared to the beginning of this month (7287.17 yuan/ton). The cost of Cyclohexanone is affected by short-term favorable factors.

On the supply side, the main production enterprise equipment maintenance. The short-term supply of Cyclohexanone was slightly positive.

Demand side, Caprolactam: downstream Caprolactam maintains high load operation. With Cyclohexanone rising steadily in the near future, downstream chemical fiber and solvent are cautious in catching up, and just need to follow up. On August 3, the benchmark price of Caprolactam in the business community was 12725.00 yuan/ton, up 0.99% compared with 12600.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. The demand side of Cyclohexanone is favorable.

It is predicted that with the high price of Cyclohexanone rising, the high price of downstream chemical fiber and solvent will slow down and the market will be in a weak balance. In the future, we need to wait and see the impact of the price of raw material pure benzene on Cyclohexanone. Cyclohexanone analysts from the business community predict that the short-term domestic Cyclohexanone market will still operate at a high level.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of aniline fell first and then rose this month. At the beginning of the month, aniline showed a downward trend, and the price of aniline began to rise in mid to late October. On July 1st, the market price of aniline was 10225 yuan/ton; On July 31st, the price was at 9880 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline this month decreased by 3.37% compared to the beginning of the month and 10.68% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

In terms of raw materials, the pure benzene market has seen a significant increase this month, with prices gradually increasing. 1、 Crude oil fell broadly, with a bearish cost side. 2、 The Asian American arbitrage window has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is high, resulting in a high import volume of pure benzene in July. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is sufficient. 3、 The downstream profit level is poor, and the price of styrene has slightly increased, with a 14.18% increase compared to the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene was 6183 yuan/ton; The price at the end of the month was 7212 yuan/ton, and the price has increased this month, a decrease of 18.89% compared to the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this month. The price of nitric acid in East China was 1950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 1933 yuan/ton at the end of the month, 0.87% lower than the beginning of the month and 29.7% lower than the same period last year.

In July of this year, the price of aniline fluctuated and did not rise until mid to late October. Starting from the beginning of the month, the early maintenance equipment has gradually returned, and the on-site spot supply increment is insufficient; Downstream, due to increased resistance to high priced aniline, the operating rate has decreased and the demand for aniline has increased. Against the backdrop of insufficient supply and increased demand, aniline factories have run out of inventory and prices have fallen significantly. Towards the end of the month, the price of aniline has rebounded.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The demand for pure benzene in the region is strong, and downstream purchases are normal. Traders are just in need of restocking, driving the transaction focus to continue to shift upwards. Crude oil and external markets rose,

Pure benzene still has the possibility of rising in the short term, and there is insufficient cost support for aniline. In July, there were fewer inspections of the aniline plant and there was sufficient supply. Downstream MDI demand is temporarily stable, and the additive industry has entered the off-season, resulting in poor demand performance. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the trend of cost, changes in downstream demand, and changes in the operating rate of aniline plants.