1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of aniline has slightly decreased this month, and the price of aniline has been stable from the beginning to the middle of the month. After the middle of the month, the price suddenly dropped. On June 1st, the market price of aniline was 10912 yuan/ton; On June 30th, the price was at 10238 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline this month decreased by 6.17% compared to the beginning of the month and 14.32% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

In terms of raw materials, the pure benzene market is relatively stable this month, with little price fluctuation. 1、 Crude oil fell broadly, with a bearish cost side. 2、 The Asian American arbitrage window has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is high, resulting in a high import volume of pure benzene in March. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is sufficient. 3、 The downstream profit level is poor, and the price of styrene has slightly decreased, with a decrease of 8.01% compared to the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene was 6530 yuan/ton; At the end of the month, the price was 7184 yuan/ton, but this month the price has decreased by 24.57% compared to the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this month. The price of nitric acid in East China was 2033 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 1951 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price fell 4.03% from the beginning of the month and 27.28% from the same period last year.

In June of this year, the price of aniline remained relatively stable, and it was not until mid to late October that there was a slight decline. Starting from the beginning of the month, the early maintenance equipment has gradually returned, and the on-site spot supply increment is insufficient; Downstream, due to increased resistance to high priced aniline, the operating rate has decreased and the demand for aniline has increased. Against the backdrop of insufficient supply and increased demand, aniline factories have run out of inventory and prices have fallen significantly. The price of aniline is relatively stable towards the end of the month.

3、 Future Market Forecast

On the raw material side, pure benzene: The short-term weakness of the fundamentals is difficult to improve. East China ports are expected to continue to accumulate, with sufficient on-site supply. In the short term, pure benzene will continue to show a weak trend, and we will wait and see if the cost and demand sides can improve.

Pure benzene may still weaken in the short term, and there is insufficient cost support for aniline. In June, there were fewer inspections of the aniline plant and there was sufficient supply. Downstream MDI demand is temporarily stable, and the additive industry has entered the off-season, resulting in poor demand performance. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the trend of cost, changes in downstream demand, and changes in the operating rate of aniline plants.

Price trend

After the domestic EVA market fell in June, it was sideways and spot prices remained stable at a low level. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of June 30th, the average ex factory price of EVA in China was 12833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of -3.51% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market has been operating weakly and steadily this month. On the supply side, the EVA industry has experienced a high start rate followed by a low start rate, with the overall load position dropping from over 90% to around 60%, and the current construction is about 64%. The market supply is still abundant, and factory inventory pressure is still ongoing. The manufacturer’s factory price continues to increase, and the profitability of the EVA polymerization plant remains stable. There is also inventory pressure on the social side, and traders tend to give up profits and take orders. On the buyer’s side, due to the news of the new production device of Gulei, the stocking operation was cautious and the follow-up within the month was poor. Terminal enterprises in both photovoltaic and foaming materials have lagged behind in their follow-up, resulting in low actual prices and continued weak trading on the market. Enterprises have resistance to high priced sources of goods. The current demand side continues to have a bearish impact on the EVA price market.

Overall, the supply side pressure on the EVA market has slightly improved this month, while downstream demand is generally weak. Overall, the enterprise dominates the price adjustment, with factory prices fluctuating horizontally, and merchants are flexible in taking orders. The demand for foaming is particularly poor, and the overall market is empty. It is expected that the domestic EVA market may continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of baking soda is weak this month, with an average market price of 1950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 1925 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price has decreased by 1.28%, a year-on-year decrease of 30.67%. On June 28th, the baking soda commodity index was 127.77, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 45.82% from the cycle’s highest point of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 44.75% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2020 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business news agency, the overall price of baking soda in May was weak, and downstream markets have been mainly purchasing according to demand recently. The current price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1700-2100 yuan/ton, which is the mainstream market quotation. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash was weak in June. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2080 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the end of the month was around 1960 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 5.77%, a decrease of 32.88% compared to the same period last year.

In terms of demand: Downstream demand for baking soda in pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food is average this month. Raw material soda ash: According to the commodity analysis system of the Business Society, the price of soda ash increased in early June, but decreased in mid to late June. Currently, the domestic soda ash price is temporarily stable and the price fluctuation is relatively small. The soda ash plant is relatively stable, and the overall trading atmosphere is acceptable. Recently, downstream soda ash is mostly purchased on demand, and the supply-demand game is expected to be dominated by fluctuating soda ash prices in the later stage. Downstream, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have a high demand for baking soda, which can be purchased according to demand. The price of baking soda has stabilized, and overall, the short-term or continued consolidation of baking soda prices depends on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of acrylic acid in East China as of June 28 was 5925.00 yuan/ton, 2.07% lower than the price on June 1.

The acrylic acid market fell first and then rose in June. In the first half of the month, the raw material propylene market fluctuated and fell, with insufficient cost support. The supply side adjusted the load of individual factories and devices, resulting in a decline in industry operating rates. In the off-season of demand, the downstream ester device load was not high, and the demand for raw material inquiries and procurement was mainly in demand. The focus of market negotiations was weak. In the second half of the month, the raw material propylene market rose, with increased cost support, boosting the mentality of the industry and driving up prices for enterprises. The factory equipment load was not high, and the demand side procurement continued to be in demand. The acrylic acid market was relatively strong, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere remained.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for propylene on June 27th was 6513.25, an increase of 0.81% compared to June 1st (6460.75).

Acrylic acid analysts from Business Society believe that there is currently some support in the cost side, with downstream procurement being the main focus and the market trading atmosphere being moderate. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may undergo a narrow adjustment in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of baking soda has temporarily stabilized this week, with an average market price of 1925 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the weekend, a year-on-year decrease of 30.67%. On June 26th, the baking soda commodity index was 127.77, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 45.82% from the cycle’s highest point of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 44.75% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2020 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of baking soda is weak and consolidating, and the downstream market has seen moderate demand recently. The current price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1700-2100 yuan/ton, which is the mainstream market quotation. According to the product analysis system of Business Society, the upstream soda ash price of baking soda is temporarily stable. The average market price of light soda ash from June 20th to June 27th was 1960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.88% compared to the same period last year.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of baking soda has remained stable in the near future, with sufficient supply of baking soda and stable operation of raw material soda ash. The soda ash plant is relatively stable, and the overall trading atmosphere is acceptable. Downstream soda ash purchases are more on demand in the near future, and the supply-demand game is expected to be dominated by fluctuations in soda ash prices in the later stage. Downstream soda ash has average demand for pharmaceuticals, textiles, food, and other aspects, For baking soda, the main focus is on on-demand procurement, with cautious purchasing sentiment and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will consolidate and operate in the future, depending on downstream market demand.