According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of 1 # tin ingot in East China this week (8.11-8.18) was 222710 yuan/ton on August 11th, and 213350 yuan/ton on August 18th, a weekly decrease of 4.2%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, the price has dropped by 11.35% per month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has been rising for nine consecutive weeks and declining for four consecutive weeks in late July.

In terms of the futures market, the overall decline in Shanghai and tin was seen this week. From a macro perspective, it is expected that the number of US unemployment insurance applications decreased last week, economic data is expected to improve, and the US dollar index slightly rose. The non-ferrous metal market is under pressure, while Shanghai and tin are down. At present, the supply and demand are still relatively loose. Although some mines in Myanmar have ceased production, they can still engage in the mining and processing of existing mines, and there are still some tin mines that can be imported in the short term. In addition, the recent increase in production of Yinman Mining has limited the impact of mining end disturbances on the recent market. As the number of imported tin ingots increases and LME inventory continues to climb to 6090 tons, the overall supply of tin ingots is loose. In terms of demand, the terminal consumption of electronic products has always been tepid, while other industries such as tinplate and semiconductor have remained weak in recent times, lacking actual demand support, and the tin market is operating weakly. Overall, the supply and demand in the tin market are still weak, and the market sentiment is on the wait-and-see side. It is expected that the future market will remain weak and volatile without any external news.

On August 18th, the base metal index was 1196 points, an increase of 11 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.99% from the highest point of 1616 points in the cycle (2022-03-09), and an increase of 86.29% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were a total of 17 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month on the commodity price rise and fall list in the 33rd week of 2023 (8.14-8.18), with antimony (2.61%), nickel (1.28%), and lead (1.21%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are three products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with cobalt (-2.30%), tin (-1.84%), and zinc (-1.22%) ranking among the top three products. This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.42%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11733 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the weekend was 11733 yuan/ton, indicating stable prices.

The quotation from domestic activated carbon manufacturers is stable, with the factory price of activated carbon used for water purification in East China coconut shell ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. The inquiry atmosphere is active, and transactions are mainly based on orders. The market is mostly wait-and-see, lacking positive news support, and the focus is on market transactions.

Activated carbon has a rich source of raw materials, including coal, sawdust, fruit shells, straw, etc. Through a series of processes, activated carbon suitable for water treatment is prepared. At the same time, activated carbon manufacturers are constantly improving the performance of activated carbon, increasing its working capacity, and effectively adsorbing and purifying wastewater.

Prediction: The transaction volume in the activated carbon market is average, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of July 15th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent and high-quality product in China, was 14625.00 yuan/ton. This week, PMMA prices remained stable and maintained the previous trend, with no significant price fluctuations. Downstream purchases were mainly for immediate needs.

This week, the domestic general transparent grade premium product PMMA has been operating smoothly. Compared to the same period last week, the price has remained stable. The purchasing atmosphere is cold and the downstream demand is average. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 14600 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. The factory has given up profits and taken orders, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The enterprise quotation is Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. 14500 yuan/ton.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On August 13th, the rubber and plastic index stood at 669 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 36.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 26.70% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that PMMA will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 2680.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2630.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week. On August 14th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 83.73, an increase of 0.24 points from yesterday, a decrease of 52.04% from the highest point of 174.60 points in the cycle (2022-06-21), and an increase of 43.74% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have slightly declined this week. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2250-2300 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium in ports is around 2500-2600 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 2600-2700 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2300-2400 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate continued to decline this week, dropping from 7180.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7100.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.11%, and a year-on-year decrease of 27.37% over the weekend. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5400.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5350.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.93%. The weekend price fell by 24.11% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to late August, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have stabilized at low levels. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with primary demand for procurement. Potassium chloride analysts from Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from August 7th to 10th, the market price of butadiene in China increased from 7376 yuan/ton to 7551 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.37% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 15.84%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.19%. During the week, crude oil prices continued to rise, and Sinopec raised its quotation to support the seller’s mentality. However, Luqing Petrochemical has increased its supply of goods for export, and there are also plans for downstream enterprises to sell raw materials. The news of increased supply has brought significant pressure on the market atmosphere, and the domestic butadiene market has improved.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International crude oil prices continue to rise, with US WTI crude oil prices hitting a nearly 9-month high. The main reason is that market supply concerns continue to ferment, coupled with the phased positive trend of the peak oil consumption season. As of the close on August 9th, the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was at $84.40 per barrel, an increase of $1.48 or 1.8%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $87.55 per barrel, an increase of $1.38 or 1.6%.

In terms of naphtha, the domestic naphtha market is at a high level of consolidation, while the international crude oil market remains at a high level. However, there is a lack of substantial positive news in terminal demand, and trading is mainly in demand. As of August 10th, the benchmark price of Shangshang Society’s naphtha is 8089.00 yuan/ton. The cost of butadiene is a favorable factor.

On the supply side, the main production enterprise Sinopec and its sales companies have raised the price of butadiene by 200 yuan/ton, and as of August 10th, the listed price was 7600 yuan/ton. Luqing Petrochemical has increased its supply of goods for export, and there are also plans for downstream enterprises to sell raw materials, resulting in an increase in market spot supply. Short term bearish impact on butadiene supply side.

On the demand side, the trend of downstream synthetic rubber products is slightly different. Some units have restarted, and the production capacity utilization rate of butadiene mainly downstream butadiene rubber and SBS has increased month on month. As of August 10th, the benchmark price of Shangshe butadiene rubber is 11880.00 yuan/ton, and the benchmark price of butadiene rubber is 11320.00 yuan/ton. Downstream demand continues, and there are sporadic equipment maintenance and parking for butadiene rubber. The demand for butadiene is mixed.

On August 9th, the closing price was closed due to Singapore’s National Day holiday, and the Asian butadiene outer market was closed. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $445-455 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 535-545 euros per ton.

In the future market forecast, due to the positive impact of crude oil and external markets in the short term, merchants are clearly reluctant to sell, but the market supply is relatively abundant, and downstream inquiries are relatively cautious. Butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market is entering a stage of consolidation and volatility.