The price of ethylene oxide slightly increased in some regions in July

According to the data of the business society, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic Spot market will be 6000 yuan/ton on July 26, 2023, which will be the same as that at the beginning of the month; Compared to the beginning of the year, the price was 6800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.76%.

On the 26th, by region, the quotation in South China rose, with an external quotation of 6200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last Friday.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

The main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer prices have slightly increased, and market participants believe that the price increase may stimulate the enthusiasm of monomer enterprises to start construction, thus providing some positive support for the ethylene oxide market.

Overview of Fundamentals

Affected by the continued strength of upstream raw material ethylene prices, the production cost of ethylene oxide in July moved up. At present, the operating pressure of ethylene oxide manufacturers is increasing, and some enterprises have lowered their operating rates, leading to expectations of a decrease in market supply. Especially in South China, the load of Zhongke equipment dropped to a low level due to force majeure, and the supply in some areas was gradually tightened.

At the beginning of the week, the domestic liquid ammonia market rose. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the main production area in Shandong increased by 2.35% on the 25th. The main reason is tight supply, which is a positive driving force.

On the supply side, maintenance of some devices in the northern region, as well as short-term shutdown due to faults in Mingshui and Luxi, have led to a decrease in the operating rate of enterprises. Overlapping imported sources of goods, there is a shortage of supply. The market atmosphere has significantly improved compared to the previous week, and the exploratory nature of dealer offers has increased. The downstream urea market continues to rise, and the expected increase in exports supports the strength of the urea market. From the perspective of terminal demand, agricultural demand should be followed up in a timely manner, while industrial demand should mainly be supported by immediate needs. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2900-3000 yuan/ton.

Prediction: Liquid ammonia analysts from Business Society believe that the tight supply of liquid ammonia will continue for a period of time in the near future. With demand maintaining a moderate growth trend, there may still be room for upward movement in liquid ammonia prices.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of July 24, 2023, the factory price reference of domestic industrial Dimethyl carbonate was 4833 yuan/ton, which was 67 yuan/ton higher than that of July 17, 2023 (the reference price of Dimethyl carbonate was 4766 yuan/ton), or 1.40%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that in the near future (7.17-7.24), the domestic market of Dimethyl carbonate has experienced a narrow upward movement after consolidation. Last week (7.17-7.23), the overall domestic Dimethyl carbonate market was stable and consolidated, and the supply and demand in the market was relatively stable. Entering this week, on July 24, some factories in Shandong Province whose earlier quotations were lower raised the price of Dimethyl carbonate by 100-200 yuan/ton. Most other factories and suppliers continued to offer steadily. As of July 24, the domestic market price of Dimethyl carbonate was around 4800-5000 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the trading atmosphere of Dimethyl carbonate in the market is relatively light, the new orders are closed cautiously, and the downstream mainly continue to purchase just in need. The Dimethyl carbonate data engineer of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic Dimethyl carbonate market is dominated by narrow adjustment and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has been plagued by bullish and bearish market conditions, and the rise of spot prices has been hindered. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of July 21, the average factory price of PA6 in China was 13425 yuan/ton, a decrease of+0.94% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

It can be seen from the figure above that the market price of Caprolactam has strengthened this week. In terms of cost, the price of pure benzene remained positive, with strong support for Caprolactam. The supply of Caprolactam increased slightly and the market supply was abundant. Downstream polymerization enterprises generally purchase Caprolactam, and it is expected that caprolactam will run stably.

On the supply side:

This week, the load of PA6 production enterprises has increased, and the overall operating rate in China is around 76%, indicating stable market supply. The inventory position has risen, and the supplier’s support for spot goods is average, putting pressure on factory pricing.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries is basically the same as last week, and the overall load position is still acceptable. However, actual trading is generally concentrated in low-end spot goods, and the overall atmosphere of stock preparation on the market is bargain hunting. The situation of new orders is weak, and buyers have poor acceptance of high priced goods. Market competition is strengthening, and overall support for the demand side of PA6 chips is average.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the increase in the PA6 market gradually narrowed. The load of domestic polymerization plants has increased, and the supply has remained sufficient. In terms of demand, it is average, and stocking tends towards low-priced sources. The price of Caprolactam is stronger, and the support of PA6 cost end is smoothed by the weakness of demand end. It is expected that the PA6 market may come under pressure and stagnate in the short term.

On June 30th, the Engineering Plastics Index was 666 points, a decrease of 41.63% from the highest point in the cycle of 1141 points (2018-09-09), and an increase of 17.67% from the lowest point of 566 points on May 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

In the first half of 2023, the prices of various domestic engineering plastics products mostly remained stagnant and fell. According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 30th, there were 2 products that rose and 3 products that fell on the list of engineering plastic prices. The main commodities that have increased are PET (+0.56%) and PA6 (+0.13%); The main commodities that fell were PA66 (-9.58%), PC (-14.02%), and POM (-20.33%).

In the first half of the year, the fundamental patterns of various products in the engineering plastic industry had their own strengths and weaknesses. The price trend in the first quarter naturally showed significant differentiation, but the common point was the general decline in the second quarter. As of the end of June, only PET and PA6 were able to maintain the price level at the beginning of the year, with other products experiencing even greater declines. Among the market bearish factors, in addition to the sustained high load and low consumption in the industry, the main impact comes from the weakening of international crude oil in the upstream of Tongtong. On the other hand, the current global impact of imported inflation still exists, and the profitability of engineering plastic production enterprises is still facing challenges. There is little improvement in the operational risks of factories at all levels. Overall, in the first half of the year, engineering plastics saw a combination of bearish conditions and a decline in the market.

PET

In the first half of the year, PET bottle level prices strengthened in the first quarter and fell back in the second quarter. The overall supply in the domestic market was tight from January to April, and after May, the market found a balance between supply and demand. Downstream purchases will be made on demand within six months, and the negotiation atmosphere will gradually weaken from being positive. The overall support for the raw material end in the early stage is relatively strong, and it tends to stabilize in the second half of the second quarter. At present, the offer operation of PET manufacturers and merchants is biased towards giving up profits and taking orders, and the price basically returns to the level at the beginning of the year. It is expected that the PET market may undergo narrow consolidation in the short term,

PA6

The domestic PA6 market rebounded after rising in the first half of the year. Within six months, the operating rate is relatively stable, and the overall industry load level is around 70% with narrow adjustment and operation, while the supply remains sufficient. Caprolactam at the cost end supported the market of PA6 in the first half of the year. During the period, the supply of Caprolactam was generally tight, coupled with the rising market of pure benzene, which was consolidated after rising within half a year. The domestic PA6 market rebounded after rising in the first half of the year. Within six months, the operating rate is relatively stable, and the overall industry load level is around 70% with narrow adjustment and operation, while the supply remains sufficient. Caprolactam at the cost end supported the market of PA6 in the first half of the year. During the period, the supply of Caprolactam was generally tight, coupled with the rising market of pure benzene, which was consolidated after rising within half a year. The downstream spinning and weaving industries, the main force of PA6, have a moderate load in the first half of the year. Although the pre holiday stock market has driven demand to some extent, the actual daily trading is mostly concentrated in low-end sources of goods. The situation of new purchases in the second half of the second quarter was poor, with buyers being cautious and orders insufficient, resulting in a decrease in demand for PA6 chips and a drop in prices. It is expected that the PA6 market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

PA66

The trend of the domestic PA66 market in this range has been fluctuating and declining in a stepped manner. In terms of industry load, in the past six months, the load of domestic PA66 enterprises has increased first and then decreased, gradually decreasing from nearly 70% to the current 60%. The spot supply of various brands continues to be abundant, and the supply pressure becomes long-term. The normalization of destocking operations has led to a gradual decline in spot prices due to this bearish situation. In terms of upstream Adipic acid, the supply of goods was tight at the end of January to support the rise. Later, due to the impact of higher commencement and lower pure benzene, it fell in two stages, which did not support the cost of PA66. Terminal enterprises focus on maintaining production within six months of receiving goods, and buyers generally have strong resistance towards high priced sources. The current trend of PA66 shows a weak supply and demand trend, and it is expected that PA66 may continue to consolidate the market in the short term.

PC

According to the Big data monitoring of the price of the business community, the PC market in China entered a downward channel after a short stalemate in the first half of the year, and the negative market continued for nearly five months. The main factor that troubled the PC market in the first half of the year was the high start-up rate of the industry. In January, the overall operating rate of domestic PC was around 60%, and then rapidly increased to a three-year high of 70% load. The stock is abundant, and the supply pressure is profound. In the first half of the year, it smoothed out a group of positive results, resulting in continuous bearish guidance on the market. Upstream bisphenol A had already taken on last year’s low price at the beginning of the year, but the market was weak and volatile within six months, with an overall decline, which provided poor support for PC costs. Downstream buyers just need to maintain production, and operators have a more wait-and-see mentality. In the past six months, the auction situation has gradually declined. The starting position of terminal enterprises within the range is not high, the actual stocking consumption is weak, and market trading is light. Traders’ mentality has weakened. It is expected that the PC market will continue to maintain a supply-demand game in the second half of the year, and prices may be strongly correlated with the adjustment of operating rates.

POM

In the first half of this year, the POM market emerged from a stalemate in the first quarter and a rapid decline in the second quarter. In the first quarter, domestic POM supply and demand both increased, and in February, there was even a phased shortage of goods and a surge in speculation. But as the high load in the industry continues, inventory pressure from factories and society begins to accumulate. According to statistics from Business Society, the average operating rate of POM in the first half of the year was around 90%, with the industry approaching full capacity for most of the period. In addition, upstream formaldehyde initially increased and then decreased, resulting in weak support for both POM supply and cost in the second quarter. The demand side of enterprise consumption is also difficult to follow up with the continuous high load. In addition, as the temperature heats up and some downstream areas are affected by limited electricity, the operating rate is low, and actual transactions have weakened, exacerbating the stagnation of on-site supply. Although the market has experienced a decline and buyers are following suit, it is still recommended to closely monitor the trading situation in the POM industry.

Future Market Forecast

In the first half of 2023, the market for the five types of engineering plastics mentioned above generally fell three times and remained stable, with overall gains being minimal and losses being significant. Within six months, the industry market has been weak and difficult to improve. Compared with the same period last year, the price position of each product is basically at a three-year low. At the same time, international crude oil fluctuated and fell, and the support for engineering plastics’ common remote raw materials has cooled. In addition, the macroeconomic environment has not provided sufficient support for the engineering plastic industry, and polymerization enterprises are generally cautious in pricing. They often lower the factory price to reduce operational risks. Therefore, the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society believes that the fundamentals of the engineering plastic industry were weak in the first half of the year, and the market momentum was poor. At present, engineering plastics is about to gradually enter the off-season of demand, and it is expected that if the market turns positive, it may wait until the traditional peak season of “nine gold and ten silver”.