According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price index of the rare earth market has continued to decline since April, and the domestic rare earth market has declined. On April 16, the rare earth index was 472 points, down 53.13% from the cycle’s highest point of 1007 (2022-02-24), and up 74.17% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).
The prices of neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metal praseodymium neodymium oxide, and metal praseodymium neodymium in China have continued to decline. As of the 17th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 585000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.77% compared to the 1st; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 477500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.61% compared to the previous day’s price; The price of neodymium oxide was 495000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.81% compared to the previous day’s price; The price of neodymium metal was 660000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.69% compared to the previous day’s price trend; The price of metal praseodymium was 675000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.88% compared to the previous day’s price; The price of praseodymium oxide was 485000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.35% compared to the previous day’s price.
In early April, the listed prices of rare earths in the northern region remained generally stable, with prices higher than market expectations. The light rare earths market stabilized after the decline, but the continued lack of downstream demand after the Qingming Festival intensified the wait-and-see sentiment of buyers, and the light rare earths market declined again. The order situation in the domestic terminal market has not significantly improved. Overall, the order volume has decreased, and large manufacturers have a clear competitive advantage. Some small and medium-sized neodymium iron boron enterprises are facing operational difficulties. In addition, the operation of enterprises with export orders is not ideal, as raw material prices fluctuate sharply, allowing enterprises to more accurately judge market trends. The order situation of downstream magnetic material enterprises has remained sluggish, with magnetic material factories mainly consuming existing inventory. The actual transaction price of rare earths continues to shift downward, putting pressure on the rare earth market. The pessimism in the rare earth market is heavy. Most of the operators continue to be short of the short-term price of rare earth. Affected by multiple factors, the price of the domestic rare earth market continues to decline.
The price of heavy rare earth dysprosium series in China has decreased, with the price of dysprosium oxide reaching 1.875 million yuan/ton as of the 17th, a decrease of 9.64% compared to the 1st price; The price of dysprosium iron alloy was 1.86 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.82% compared to the previous day’s price; The price of dysprosium metal was 2.65 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.36% compared to the previous day’s price; The price of terbium series in China has mainly declined, with terbium oxide priced at 8.8 million yuan/ton and metallic terbium priced at 11.7 million yuan/ton. The price trend of heavy rare earth has declined, the production enterprises in Sichuan and other places have started to rise, the downstream procurement is very cold, and the oversupply has caused the market price to fall. In addition, there is an increase in rare earth mines from Southeast Asia, and the supply of rare earth is sufficient. The recovery of the rare earth terminal industry is slow, and transactions are scarce. The rare earth market prices continue to decline.
According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is still acceptable. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 674000 and 653000 units in March, with a month on month increase of 22% and 24.4%, and a year-on-year increase of 44.8% and 34.8%, respectively. The market share reached 26.6%. Although the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased, the purchase of downstream permanent magnets is very rare, and the price of light rare earth is not optimistic.
On March 24th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources issued a notice on the total control indicators for the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2023: the first batch of rare earth mining indicators in 2023 was 120000 tons, an increase of approximately 19% compared to last year, including 109057 tons of rock and mineral rare earth, an increase of 22% compared to last year; Ionic rare earth ore is 10943 tons, a decrease of 5% compared to last year. The mining output of rare earth has risen sharply, which has hit market confidence in some ways, and the price of rare earth has continued to decline.
Future Market Forecast: In the near future, downstream rare earth merchants have been purchasing lightly, and demand is unlikely to improve. In addition, there is sufficient upstream supply, sharp supply-demand contradiction, and poor transaction situation. In the short term, the decline in the rare earth market is difficult to change. In the long run, the new energy vehicles, wind power, and variable frequency air conditioning fields downstream of rare earth can continue to develop. The rapid development of emerging industries will greatly increase the demand for rare earth functional materials, The demand for rare earth industry will further increase.
