On the 24th, the price of polyester filament was reduced compared to before, and the overall quotation for polyester filament was lowered by 100-300 yuan/ton. Since mid July, the inventory pressure of polyester factories has increased. Following the price reduction promotion of polyester filament in small factories last week, large factories have also joined the pace of price reduction this week. A large number of polyester factories, including several major manufacturers, collectively lowered the price of polyester filament.

Supply side: The production capacity growth of polyester filament has slowed down in recent times, but some polyester factories still face inventory pressure. In order to alleviate inventory pressure, polyester factories have adopted a strategy of price reduction and promotion, including multiple polyester factories collectively lowering the price of polyester filament. On the demand side: The current textile market is in a traditional off-season, with lower operating rates of downstream weaving enterprises and relatively reduced demand for raw materials. In addition, downstream enterprises’ resistance to price increases has also affected their enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China, the export volume of polyester filament from China decreased by 7.34% year-on-year in the first half of 2024. The year-on-year decline in exports to major trading partners such as India and Türkiye is particularly significant. This is mainly due to the failure of domestic polyester factories to pass the BIS certification in India, the increase in shipping costs caused by the Red Sea incident, and the production of polyester and polyester facilities locally by some trading partners. However, some trading partners such as Vietnam, Pakistan, and Indonesia have also achieved positive growth in export volume.

The recent market trend of polyester filament has shown characteristics of price reduction, supply-demand imbalance, and year-on-year decline in exports. The future development of the market will be influenced by various factors, including market supply and demand, export situation, and policy environment.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 23, the average price of epoxy propane in the domestic market was reference at 8952.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.08% compared to last Wednesday’s (July 17) price.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the epoxy propane market has slightly increased recently. As of July 23rd, the mainstream price reference for epoxy propane in Shandong’s market is around 8700 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends:

On the cost side: Recently, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated narrowly, and the price of raw material liquid chlorine first fell and then rose. The cost is supported by the epoxy propane market.

Supply and demand side: Some equipment maintenance and load reduction operations have led to an overall decrease in market supply, low inventory levels on the supply side, manufacturers are not pressured to raise prices, downstream companies are mainly observing and following up appropriately, and the focus of negotiations in the epoxy propane market is stable with a slight increase.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that short-term cost support continues, supply side pressure is temporarily controllable, and downstream follow-up is mainly wait-and-see. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market will remain strong and wait-and-see, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on July 22 was 910 yuan/ton, which is 3.19% lower than the average price of 940 yuan/ton on July 15.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices have mainly declined. This week, there has been frequent rainfall in many areas, resulting in poor transportation. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, while the operating rate of domestic enterprises has increased. At present, the market supply is relatively sufficient, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened. The main focus is on price cutting procurement, and the export market has not improved yet. As of July 22nd, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 870 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 890-920 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has been weak in recent days. At present, there is a decrease in market inquiries, weak domestic and international demand, and downstream cautious observation is the main focus. It is expected that the domestic price of ammonium sulfate will be weak in the short term and will be adjusted accordingly.

This week, the price of phthalic anhydride has slightly fallen

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the domestic phthalic anhydride market has fallen this week. As of July 19th, the price of phthalic anhydride in the phthalic anhydride process was 8075 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.15% from the price of 8087.50 yuan/ton on July 12th. Domestic neighboring phthalic anhydride is priced at 7800-8100 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic naphthalene phthalic anhydride is priced at 7450-7550 yuan/ton before leaving the factory.

Supply side: tight supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is temporarily stable, with a production rate of about 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is stable, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. This week, the price of industrial naphthalene fluctuated slightly and fell, and the naphthalene phthalic anhydride market fell. The ortho benzene market stabilized, and the cost support led to a slight decline in the ortho benzene phthalic anhydride market.

Demand side: DOP market is fluctuating and falling

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 19th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9725 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 1.89% compared to the DOP price of 9912.50 yuan/ton on July 12th last weekend. The market for phthalic anhydride, a raw material for plasticizers, has fluctuated and stabilized, while the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen. The cost of plasticizers has also decreased, and the price of DOP, a plasticizer, has fluctuated and fallen this week. With the arrival of the hot and rainy season, PVC has entered a seasonal off-season in the industry, with both domestic demand off-season and export reduction coexisting. Downstream manufacturers are in the off-season, with low production levels and weak follow-up on actual transactions. The demand for plasticizers is poor, and there is significant downward pressure on plasticizers.

Future forecast

The data analyst for phthalic anhydride products at Shengyi Society believes that in the future, in terms of cost, the recent trend of crude oil prices has been fluctuating and consolidating, the price of ortho xylene has stabilized, and the cost support for phthalic anhydride still exists; In terms of demand, the downstream DOP market has fluctuated and fallen, resulting in poor demand for plasticizers. The cost is temporarily stable with weak demand, and the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride is increasing; The market for Nafthalic anhydride has weakened, which is bearish for neighboring phthalic anhydride. It is expected that the market for phthalic anhydride will remain weak and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market has been fluctuating downward since July. On July 18th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 5931 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77% from the beginning of the month. Under the weakening of both costs and demand, the PTA price trend is weak.

Looking at the future, based on its own supply situation, Zhongtai Petrochemical’s 1.2 million ton PTA plant started heating up on July 11th, with a current load of 70%. Pengwei Petrochemical’s annual production of 900000 tons of PTA plant was temporarily shut down and is scheduled to restart on July 20th. The current operating rate of the PTA industry in China is around 84%, and some units will still restart in the later stage. However, the PTA maintenance plan is relatively few, and the liquidity may be sufficient after the supply returns, resulting in significant pressure on the accumulated inventory.

The international crude oil market has stopped falling and rebounded. As of July 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $82.85 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $85.08 per barrel. In the short term, the game between crude oil supply and demand continues to play a role. Due to the impact of geopolitical situation and OPEC’s production control, the supply side has certain support, and oil prices may maintain a range oscillation pattern.

In the PX market, domestic PX load has returned to a high level, overseas facilities have been restarted one after another, and Asian PX production has returned to its highest level since the beginning of this year. It is expected that there may be further upward momentum in the future. But the recovery of downstream PTA supply is lower than expected, and PX prices will continue to be under pressure.

Downstream mainstream polyester factories have gradually begun to implement production cuts, and the industry’s operating capacity has dropped below 83%, further boosting the determination to maintain fixed prices. The low season of terminal demand, coupled with weak orders and high temperatures, has led to a continued decline in the operating rate of terminals in Jiangsu and Zhejiang to around 65%. Downstream demand for PTA is still weak due to low intentions to replenish inventory.

Business analysts believe that further attention needs to be paid to the trend of crude oil, whether PTA has unplanned maintenance, and the implementation of downstream polyester production cuts.