After a narrow rise in the domestic ABS market in early February, the prices of most grades of spot goods remained flat. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 10th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11912.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of+0.32% compared to the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: In early February, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry had limited changes, with a load of about 73% roughly unchanged from the pre holiday level. The average weekly production within the month is close to 130000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has rebounded to over 170000 tons. The overall pattern of abundant supply of goods remains unchanged. Although the pre sales of petrochemical plants were good before the holiday, recent shipments have been hindered, and production companies have given up on their early month gains. Overall, the recent supply side has provided average support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: In February, the three upstream materials of ABS showed mixed trends, with overall support for ABS costs being average. The domestic acrylonitrile market maintains an upward trend. The low load situation in the industry continues, and the overall inventory position is low. The supply return process is slow, and prices are running steadily. However, downstream purchasing power has weakened after the holiday, and the overall market performance remains strong at a high level.
The butadiene market remains strong at a high level. Although the spot market has followed the tight pattern before the holiday, with the continuous rise of spot prices in the early stage, it has affected the downstream high-level receiving ability. In addition, there are expectations of relaxation in the future market on the supply side, leading to a stalemate and confrontation in the market. It is expected that butadiene may continue to be sorted out.
Styrene first rose and then fell in early February. The styrene plant within ten days will continue to operate at the pre holiday level, while there will be a slight weakening of supply side support due to the accumulation of cargo at the port before the holiday. Combined with the impact of the decline in crude oil prices, the price of styrene has fallen back.
In terms of demand, the export demand for some front-end household appliances in the terminal sector has been fully released in January, and downstream purchasing power has weakened during and after the Spring Festival. The process of resuming work in terminal factories during holidays is slow, and the overall load level is not high. In addition, some terminal enterprises were stimulated by the increase in ABS cost value in the early stage and engaged in purchasing and replenishment operations, so there is still inventory that needs to be digested. Overall, the demand side has a slower pace in providing market support.
Future forecast
The domestic ABS market remained stagnant after a surge in February. Upstream three materials showed mixed ups and downs, providing average comprehensive support for ABS cost side. The load of ABS polymerization plant remains basically unchanged, inventory has increased, and the pressure on the supply side has slightly increased. Insufficient expansion on the demand side, regression still requires a process. Business analysts believe that the ABS market may continue to consolidate in the short term, with unemployed individuals returning to the market.
