1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from the Business News Agency, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate on March 10th was 1126 yuan/ton, while the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate on March 16th was 1073 yuan/ton. This week, the price of ammonium sulfate fell by 4.73%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate fell sharply this week. At present, the market demand for ammonium sulfate is sluggish, downstream procurement is cautious, and on-site trading is weak. The export performance of ammonium sulfate was poor, and the international quotation was lowered. This week, the bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate significantly decreased, while the domestic grade ammonium sulfate declined in a narrow range. As of March 16, the mainstream ex-factory price of coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong Province was around 980 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price of ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province was around 950 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex-factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is 1080-1160 yuan/ton.

This week, the price trend of downstream compound fertilizer was weak. The price trend of raw materials is not good, and the composite fertilizer market is dominated by wait-and-see. At present, the transaction of new orders on the market is generally general, with orders mainly issued to old customers.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

According to ammonium sulfate analysts from the Business News Agency, the domestic market for ammonium sulfate has been weak recently, with no improvement in foreign market demand. Under the leadership of negative market conditions, the ammonium sulfate market is moving downward. In the absence of positive conditions, it is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will continue to decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the price of caustic soda fell. The average market price in Shandong at the beginning of the week was 896 yuan/ton, and the average market price in Shandong at the end of the week was 860 yuan/ton. The price fell 4.02%, and the price fell 14.51% compared with the same period last year. The caustic soda commodity index on March 9 was 126.04, which was the same as yesterday, down 52.52% from the cycle’s highest point of 265.47 (2021-10-27), and up 93.58% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the Business Agency, the domestic caustic soda price fell this week. The average market price in Shandong is about 800-870 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of 32% of the mainstream liquid caustic soda in Hebei is about 850-1150 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in the site is weak. The overall supply of caustic soda is relatively sufficient, the downstream demand is less than expected, the intra-field trading atmosphere is weak, lack of positive factors to support, and the downstream is cautious.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, there were 2 commodities that rose, 2 commodities that fell, and 1 commodity that rose or fell to 0 in the price list of chlor-alkali industry in the 9th week of 2023 (2.27-3.3). The main commodities rising were hydrochloric acid (6.02%) and light soda ash (0.36%); The main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 1.31%) PVC (- 0.98%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.82%.

Analysts from the Business Agency believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has declined, the downstream alumina procurement is general, and the trading atmosphere is relatively light. Some caustic soda units have been lightened, but the overall supply is relatively sufficient. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the market caution is lingering. It is estimated that the weak operation in the later stage of caustic soda is mainly based on the downstream market demand.

This week (March 3 to March 10), the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese was temporarily stable, and the market atmosphere was weak. The spot market price in East China was 16850 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 16850 yuan/ton at the end of this week, temporarily stable.

In terms of manganese ore: the overall market performance is weak, and the manufacturers’ intention to lower prices continues to ferment. The transaction price of Tianjin Port manganese ore fell by about 0.5 yuan/tonne, Australia’s 46.5 yuan/tonne, Gabon’s 42.5 yuan/tonne, and South Africa’s semi-carbonic acid’s 34 yuan/tonne. Qinzhou Port saw a slight decline, with Australian dollar of 46.8 yuan/ton, Gabon of 42.8 yuan/ton, and South Africa’s semi-carbonic acid of 36 yuan/ton. The external quotation of imported manganese ore has declined, the mining enthusiasm of downstream manufacturers is weak, the inventory of manganese ore in the port has gradually accumulated, and the transaction price has continued to decline slightly. However, at present, the freight of individual minerals has increased, and the exchange rate has risen, and the cost of manganese ore has been supported. It is expected that the overall price attitude of the miners will not decrease in the short term.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. From the above weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart, it can be seen that since March 2022, the electrolytic manganese has continued to decline, the price has continued to stabilize after a slight rise at the end of August, the price has recovered slightly since the end of September, the price has remained stable for a long time since October, the price has fluctuated slightly in November, the price has decreased slightly after December, and the price has continued to decline slightly after the temporary stability in January.

European strategic small metal manganese price this week (unit: USD/ton)

Variety/ March 3/ March 10/ Up and down

European small metal antimony/ 2500./2450./-50

The price of European strategic small metal manganese was slightly reduced to 2450 US dollars/ton on March 10, with a reduction of 50 US dollars/ton. The recent market negotiation atmosphere was limited, and the wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and the price fell slightly.

The market price of electrolytic manganese was basically stable this week, and the market atmosphere continued to maintain a weak trend. The market price was 15100-15300 yuan/ton. In terms of commencement, this week is basically the same as the previous period. Although the price of some raw materials has risen and the cost of electrolytic manganese has increased slightly, the profit of the enterprise is still fair, the overall commencement is normal, and the supply is flat compared with the previous period. In terms of demand, the recent situation of steel bidding is general, the market trading is not active, the downstream purchasing intention is always low, and the smelter is actively shipping. In general, the overall weak trend of the electrolytic manganese market is basically the same as that of the previous period. Under the environment of weak demand, it is expected that the follow-up market will continue to maintain stable, moderate and weak operation, and the market will wait for more guidance of steel bidding.

This week, the spot market for silicon and manganese was consolidated and operated. The market quotation was slightly looser than that of last week. The market sentiment returned to rationality. The price of steel bidding basically met expectations. The market activity in the first half of the week was poor. After the price of mainstream steel bidding was finalized on Sunday, the market inquiry atmosphere gradually improved. According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was around 7200-7300 yuan/ton on February 10, down 50 yuan/ton from last week.

Relevant data:

Customs data showed that the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap and powder in December 2022 was about 5003.818 tons, down about 16.6% month on month and up 47.85% year on year. In December 2022, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap and powder was about 24929.7 tons, down about 2.28% month-on-month and 28.56% at the same time.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market of imported potassium chloride this week is temporarily stable, with the price of 3850.00 yuan/ton. The arrival price of domestic salt lake potassium chloride this week is 3500-3600 yuan/ton. About 2.5 million tons are stored in the port. The commodity index of potassium chloride (import) on March 12 was 101.32, which was the same as yesterday, down 30.00% from the highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21) in the cycle, and up 4.77% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotations of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers rose and fell each other this week The port’s 62% white potassium self-raised price is about 3500-3600 yuan/ton. The self-raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is about 3700-3800 yuan/ton. 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade is about 3400-3500 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex-factory price of potassium carbonate fell slightly this week, from 9120.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9100.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.22%, up 5.81% year-on-year. The ex-factory price of potassium nitrate was temporarily stable this week, at 5940.00 yuan/ton, down 9.31% from the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride declined slightly, and the demand of downstream customers for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and late March, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fall in a narrow range, mainly in consolidation. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangger were low. The downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened, and the purchase was mainly in demand. International potash fertilizer prices continued to fall. Analysts of KCl from the Business Agency believe that the import price of domestic KCl may fall slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell sharply in the first ten days of March. The average price of domestic PVC was 6243.33 yuan/ton on March 1 and 6225 yuan/ton on March 10, with a price drop of 0.29%.

2、 Market analysis

In the first ten days of March, the domestic spot market of PVC fell sharply. At present, the trading atmosphere of the spot market is general, and the futures market is weak, which affects the confidence of the spot market. The delivery is mainly based on the spot price, and the situation of traders’ taking goods is general. Downstream enterprises are more wait-and-see, cautious about actual orders, and mainly purchase on demand. Up to now, the domestic price range of PVC5 carbide is mostly around 5900-6380 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures fell for the third consecutive trading day on March 9. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was US $75.72/barrel, down US $0.94 or 1.2%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $81.59/barrel, down US $1.07 or 1.3%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the data monitored by the Business Society, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region was temporarily stable this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China was 3483.33 yuan/ton. The price of upstream blue charcoal fell slightly, the cost support was insufficient, the downstream PVC market was general, and the demand for calcium carbide was tepid.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the PVC analyst of the Business Agency, the spot price of PVC fell in the first ten days of March. At present, the demand of PVC spot market is general, and downstream enterprises have low purchasing enthusiasm. They are cautious about actual orders, and mainly purchase on demand. It is expected that in the short term, the PVC market will still fluctuate slightly, and close attention will be paid to the changes in the news.