According to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8825.00 yuan/ton as of March 7, down 1.12% from the price on March 1.

The market of epichlorohydrin has been weak since March. Recently, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and fell, the price of raw material glycerin was stable, the cost support was limited, the small downstream orders just needed replenishment, the factory shipment was under pressure, and the lack of demand support dragged down the focus of epichlorohydrin market negotiations.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the recent domestic propylene (Shandong) market volatility fell. On March 6, the reference price of propylene was 7346.60, down 2.34% from March 1 (7522.60).

For downstream epoxy resin, the reference price of epoxy resin was 15100.00 on March 6, which was the same as that on March 1.

According to the epichlorohydrin analyst of the business agency, the current cost pressure still exists, but the demand is low, and the market transaction atmosphere is light. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may become stale and weak in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to the market news guidance.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

It can be seen from the above figure that the ex-factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of isooctanol mainstream manufacturers in Shandong increased from 9066.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9300.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 2.57%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 26.77% year-on-year. The isooctanol commodity index on March 5 was 68.91, which was the same as yesterday, down 49.88% from the highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle, and up 96.05% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Upstream support increases, and downstream demand is better

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex-factory quotation of Shandong isooctanol mainstream manufacturers rose slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7490.60 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7516.60 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.35%, down 16.64% year-on-year. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP rose slightly this week. The price of DOP rose from 9960.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9970.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.10%, down 19.03% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, and downstream customers were active in purchasing isooctanol.

Future prospects

In the middle and first ten days of March, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province was mainly subject to small fluctuations. The upstream propylene market fell slightly over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. Downstream DOP market rose slightly, and downstream demand was better. The isooctanol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fall mainly due to small fluctuations under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic ethanol market was sorted and operated. On February 27 and March 3, the domestic ethanol price kept rising from 7192 yuan/ton to 7200 yuan/ton, up 0.10% in the cycle, down 0.59% month-on-month, and up 3.60% year on year. The quotation of production enterprises is mainly in line with the market, but the unit operating rate is stable, the inventory is constantly overstocked, the demand is weak, and the ethanol market is expected to be empty.

On the cost side, the business cooperative monitored the low price of domestic corn market. On March 3, the benchmark price of the business cooperative corn was 2808.57 yuan/ton. With the comprehensive recovery of corn trade in the production area, the market volume of corn has recovered again. After the corn stock of the port and downstream deep processing enterprises has been replenished to some extent, the purchase price of corn has been continuously reduced. In the recent months, the domestic corn market price has been operating weakly as a whole.

On the supply side, the starting load of the overall ethanol market this week was stable, the main plant unit was operating at high load, the on-site supply was increased, and some units in northern Jiangsu were operating at low load, the overall on-site supply was stable, the Guannan unit was shut down, the Jinchanglin unit was shut down, and the Changxing and Meibohui units in southern Jiangsu were started. The negative impact of ethanol supply side increased.

On the demand side, the chemical industry just needs to purchase, and the demand for Baijiu has increased slightly. The short-term demand for ethanol is slightly positive.

According to the aftermarket forecast, the cost support is insufficient, and the downstream demand is mainly rigid. Ethanol analysts of the Business News Agency predicted that the domestic ethanol market was weak in the short term.

The price of o-xylene rose on March 1

According to the price trend chart of ortho-xylene of the business community, the price of ortho-xylene was 8300 yuan/ton as of March 1, up 3.75% from 8000 yuan/ton on the previous trading day. The cost of raw materials supported the recovery of demand, and the domestic ortho-xylene market rose on March 1.

Analysis points

The price of mixed xylene, the raw material of o-benzene, fluctuated and increased, and the cost was greatly supported; The price of neighboring benzene in the outer market has risen, and the price difference between the inner and outer markets of neighboring benzene is large, so the price of neighboring benzene has a strong supporting force; The downstream market of phthalic anhydride has warmed up, which has some support for o-benzene, but the rise of phthalic anhydride is less than that of o-benzene, and the support for o-benzene rise is limited.

Future prospects

With sufficient cost support and limited demand support, the price of ortho-xylene is expected to stabilize strongly in the future.

According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on February 28 was 94.09, which was the same as yesterday, down 15.62% from the highest point of 111.51 (2021-11-03) in the cycle, and up 13.51% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market in February 2023 was mainly stable and slightly downward: on the 1st of this month, the main market price was about 15542.86 yuan/ton, and on the 28th, the main market price was about 15442.86 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 0.64%. At present, the polyacrylamide manufacturers have sufficient inventory, the downstream demand is general, the market is not strong, and the order situation is not ideal. The cost of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid, propylene, rose first and then fell, resulting in the cost support from strong to weak. The downstream demand contradicted the high-priced supply of goods, and the follow-up was slow. The mainstream market of both products rose sharply and then declined slightly this month. Due to the high inventory of polyacrylamide manufacturers, the low production of new orders, and the remaining inventory before the year, the price change of raw materials has little impact on it; Affected by the continued weakness of its downstream demand, the market price of polyacrylamide fluctuated slightly this month.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the Business News Agency, the market price of acrylonitrile rose sharply in February and then continued to decline slightly, and finally rose by 4.35% this month. The bulk water price of acrylonitrile market was 10062.5 yuan/ton on February 1, and 10500 yuan/ton was quoted on the 28th. Among them, the highest price of the stage was 10800 yuan/ton on February 7, the lowest price was 10062.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the maximum amplitude was 7.33%. The acrylonitrile raw material propylene market generally rose first and then slightly decreased; The stable production and commencement of the downstream have a strong need for support for acrylonitrile, but the downstream has a slight resistance to high-priced sources of goods. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.

Acrylic acid as raw material: According to the data of the Business Agency, the acrylic acid market rose first and then fell slightly in February, with a monthly increase of 4.55%. Among them, the average price in East China on February 1 was 7700 yuan/ton, and the average price on February 28 was 8050 yuan/ton; The highest price of the stage is 8200 yuan/ton from the 13th to the 19th, and the lowest price is 7700 yuan/ton from the 1st, with a maximum amplitude of 6.49%. At present, the price of raw material propylene is weak, the cost support is general, the market is wait-and-see operation, the downstream demand is gradually warming, and under the support of the supply and demand side, the acrylic acid market is expected to be stable in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to the guidance of market news.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the data of the Business News Agency, the domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) fell first and then rose in February: from 6060 yuan/ton on February 1 to 6082 yuan/ton on February 28, with a monthly decrease of 0.13%; Among them, the highest price of the stage is 6090 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the lowest price of the stage is 5724 yuan/ton on the 10th or so, with the monthly maximum amplitude of 6.01%. As the weather warms, demand decreases, market support weakens, and the market is temporarily negative, it is expected that the domestic LNG price will continue to decline in the short term.

Aftermarket forecast: the price of main raw materials will mainly decline slightly, and the production of polyacrylamide will be normal and the inventory will be sufficient. The demand for downstream demand orders will continue to be weak. It is expected that the support will continue to be unfavorable in the short term, and the polyacrylamide market will continue to be weak.