Futures market: This week (2.20-2.24), the main force of staple fiber futures closed up in a narrow range of shocks. The main contract of short-fiber PF futures closed at 7278 on Friday, up 2.97% from last week’s closing price. The settlement price is 7258 yuan. This week, the main domestic staple fiber upstream raw material PTA futures rose 3.68% to 5638, and the main ethylene glycol futures rose 3.77% to 4354.

Spot price: the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber fell slightly this week. According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was about 7372 yuan/ton on February 24, down 1.21% from Monday’s price and 5.61% from the same period last year.

Most central banks around the world have not completed tightening monetary policy, which may reduce the future demand for crude oil. However, the EIA reported on Thursday that (as of the week of February 17) the US gasoline inventory decreased by 1.9 million barrels, while the sharp decrease in gasoline inventory represented strong demand. The main force of American oil futures fell 0.3% and closed at US $76.32 per barrel this week. In the near future, PTA plant production reduction and maintenance increased slightly, the terminal resumed work actively, the commencement gradually increased, the PTA supply and demand margin improved, and the price rose slightly. In the near future, ethylene glycol society and port stocks are high, and the expected maintenance load of devices is increasing, and the downstream recovery drives the price of ethylene glycol to rebound slightly. In the near future, the start of staple fiber has rebounded slightly, and the start of downstream yarn mills and weaving mills has gradually recovered. The terminal orders have warmed up, and the staple fiber enterprises have gone to stock slightly, and the staple fiber futures prices have risen slightly along with the cost.

In the future, the cost support of staple fiber raw materials is acceptable, the downstream yarn mills and weaving mills are actively resuming work, and the staple fiber enterprises are cautiously optimistic about the recovery of future demand, but the sustainability of the follow-up needs to be observed. It is expected that the short-term staple fiber price will oscillate with the cost. In the future, we will focus on the price trend of raw materials and the recovery of terminal orders.

According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, the domestic aggregate MDI market is weak. From February 17 to 24, the market price of domestic aggregate MDI fell from 16500 yuan/ton to 16240 yuan/ton. The price fell by 1.58% in the week. The price rose by 8.56% month-on-month and 20.78% year-on-year. At present, the main reason affecting the trend of the aggregated MDI market is still the demand side. The purchasing atmosphere in the downstream industry is still weak. Some traders and downstream buyers are looking for lower prices, and the overall demand has increased compared with the previous period.

On the supply side, Chongqing BASF 400000 t/a unit entered the maintenance state on February 5, and the supply was reduced. Under no great pressure from the production enterprises, it was still in a price attitude.

In terms of cost, raw material pure benzene: the domestic market price of pure benzene fluctuates slightly. The spot transaction was 6970-7070 yuan/ton; The market price in Shandong was 6720-6880 yuan/ton. Raw aniline: orders from some downstream factories increased, and demand warmed; Combined with the planned overhaul of aniline plant in March, the overall state of mind of the market was positive, and the aniline market rose sharply. There are obvious short-term positive factors on the cost side of aggregate MDI.

On the demand side, the trading atmosphere in the terminal market is poor, and the ability to follow orders is limited. Downstream factories and traders still have some early inventory, and short-term inventory orders are mainly digested.

According to the aftermarket forecast, the production enterprises are close to the settlement cycle, and the supply side will maintain a strong support, but the follow-up capacity of the demand side is relatively limited. According to the analyst of MDI polymerization of the Business Agency, the market situation of MDI polymerization in China is mainly stalemate and consolidation.

According to the price monitoring data of the Business Agency, as of February 23, 2023, the price of domestic n-propanol was referenced at 8000 yuan/ton. Compared with February 3, 2023 (the reference price of n-propanol was 8066 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 66 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83%.

It can be seen from the monitoring chart of the data of the business agency that the domestic n-propanol market has been in a slight decline in the overall fluctuation since February (2.03-2.23). At the beginning of February, the recovery of downstream demand for n-propanol was relatively slow, and the price of n-propanol was lowered by Shandong large factories, which led to the weak market as a whole. In the middle of February, the market of n-propanol recovered slightly, but the downstream digested the raw materials in the early stage. The new orders on the market were light, and the demand support was weak. The overall market of n-propanol in the second half of February declined slightly. As of February 23, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province was around 7350-7700 yuan/ton (bulk water). The market price of n-propanol in Nanjing is around 8500-9000 yuan/ton. Dealers in different regions have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. There are also differences in each region, and the negotiation is based on the actual order.

Prediction of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the downstream demand of n-propanol is still being released gradually. With the weather warming, the downstream demand of the terminal will gradually increase. The n-propanol statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly be stable and small, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the supply and demand information.

DOP price rose on February 21

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 21, the price of DOP was 9890 yuan/ton, up 1.96% from 9700 yuan/ton on February 20 of the previous trading day. The cost rose, and the DOP price rose again on February 21.

Analysis points

The price of isooctanol stopped rising, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized strongly, the cost of DOP raw materials stabilized strongly, and the downward pressure of DOP weakened and the upward momentum remained; Downstream procurement is general, PVC prices fluctuate and rise, the demand for plasticizers warms up, and the downward pressure of plasticizer DOP weakens, and the upward momentum remains.

Aftermarket expectation

The cost is strong, the demand is stable, and the plasticizer DOP is mixed. It is expected that DOP will consolidate strongly in the future.

Trade name: isooctanol

Latest price (February 20): 9266.67 yuan/ton

The ex-factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell slightly on February 20, down 233.33 yuan/ton, or 2.46%, from February 17, and 28.72% year-on-year. The upstream propylene price rose slightly, the cost support was general, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is downward.

Recently, the ex-factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province may fall slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is around 9000 yuan/ton.