This week (5.29-6.5), the acrylonitrile market saw a significant decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 5th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 8287 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.89% from last Monday’s 9300 yuan/ton. At present, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile in the market is between 7900 to 8300 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials continue to decline, with weak support for acrylonitrile; The downstream atmosphere is weak, and prices have decreased slightly, while the demand for acrylonitrile continues to be weak; In addition, the supply side has slightly improved, and the acrylonitrile market has slightly declined.

This week (5.29-6.5), the domestic acrylonitrile operating rate slightly increased.

Recently (5.29-6.5), the raw material propylene market continued to decline, and the cost support for acrylonitrile continued to be weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 5th, the domestic propylene price was 6270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.09% from last Monday’s 6470 yuan/ton.

Downstream ABS prices continue to decline, with industry device starts slightly dropping to around 8.4%, weakening support for acrylonitrile demand; The domestic nitrile rubber has slightly declined, and the price of polyacrylamide has temporarily stabilized at a low level, with weak support for acrylonitrile.

Future Forecast: Business Society Acrylonitrile Analysts believe that the current supply pressure of acrylonitrile has slightly increased, coupled with the weakening of demand and low consolidation of cost, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be weak and volatile in the short term.

Price trend

The recent negative continuation of the domestic EVA market has led to a significant decline in spot prices. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of June 2nd, the average ex factory price of EVA in China was 12833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of -4.47% compared to the beginning of the week.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market continued to be weak this week. On the supply side, the EVA industry continues to experience high operating rates and a slight decrease in operating rates within the week, but the overall position is still at a high level of about 85%. The market supply is abundant, and there is pressure on factory inventory. Factory factory prices continue to be lowered, and the profitability of EVA polymerization plants continues to weaken. Social inventory pressure is also high, with traders operating at the end of last month with a bias towards giving up profits and taking orders. On the buyer’s side, due to the news of the new production device, the stocking operation was cautious and the follow-up was poor during the week. Terminal enterprises in both photovoltaic and foaming materials have lagged behind in their follow-up, resulting in frequent occurrences of low prices and low trading volume on the market. Enterprises have resistance to high priced sources of goods. The current demand side continues to have a bearish impact on the EVA price market.

Overall, the supply side pressure on the EVA market has been limited this week, and downstream demand is generally weak. Overall, the factory price of enterprises has been lowered, while businesses have followed suit. The demand for foaming is particularly poor, and the overall market is empty. It is expected that the domestic EVA market may continue to be weak in the short term.

Zinc prices plummeted significantly in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 31, the zinc price was 19426 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.11% compared to the zinc price of 21374 yuan/ton on May 1. In May, the spot zinc price fell below the 20000 yuan mark, setting a new historical low since March 2021.

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in May, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of the manufacturing industry was 48.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, below the critical point, and the level of manufacturing prosperity slightly declined. The level of China’s economic prosperity has declined, and the foundation for restoring development still needs to be consolidated. The recovery of the manufacturing industry has been poor, and the demand for zinc in the market has fallen short of expectations.

Low demand for zinc ingots during the off-season of consumption

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, since April, the price of galvanized sheet has fluctuated and fallen, with low production levels for galvanized sheet and zinc oxide enterprises. The downstream consumption season of the zinc market is low, and the demand for zinc ingots is sluggish.

The domestic real estate market is weak

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to April, the national investment in real estate development reached 3551.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%. From January to April, the construction area of real estate development enterprises’ houses was 7712.71 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%. The newly constructed area of houses is 312.2 million square meters, a decrease of 21.2%. The completed area of houses is 236.78 million square meters, an increase of 18.8%. In April, the real estate development prosperity index was 94.78. The real estate market is weak and the prosperity index is insufficient, and the demand for zinc ingots is less than expected, increasing the downward pressure on the zinc market.

Expected excess supply in the zinc market

From the trend chart of zinc concentrate processing fees, it can be seen that the decline in zinc concentrate processing fees slowed down in May, and there was a brief rebound in zinc concentrate processing fees. Zinc concentrate processing fees stopped falling, zinc smelting enterprises’ enthusiasm for starting operations increased, zinc ingot production is expected to increase, and zinc market supply is expected to increase.

Expectations of zinc surplus continue to expand

According to data analysis from CRU Group, demand for zinc will be relatively weak in the coming years, while zinc mining and refining production will continue to grow. In the next five years, global refined zinc production is expected to increase by 1.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%; Among them, there will be an increase of 800000 tons outside of China, and an increase of approximately 500000 tons in China. Due to the economic recovery in China and Europe, global refined zinc demand is expected to increase by 2.7% year-on-year this year, reversing the 4.1% decline in 2022, but the demand growth rate is slower than the supply growth. The surplus supply of zinc continues to expand, and it is predicted that the zinc price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) will decrease from $3442 per ton in 2022 to $3050 per ton in 2023, with a potential further decrease to $2525 in 2024 and $2000 in 2025. Expectations of excess supply in the zinc market have increased the pressure on zinc prices to decline.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, in terms of supply, zinc concentrate processing fees are stabilizing. At the same time, the impact of Yunnan power restrictions on zinc smelting enterprises is weakening, and the enthusiasm of zinc smelting manufacturers to start operations is increasing. The supply of zinc in the market is stable. In terms of demand, during the off-season in the galvanized sheet and zinc oxide markets, demand for zinc ingots is weak, PMI in domestic manufacturing has decreased, the real estate infrastructure market has weakened, and expectations for zinc market demand have weakened. International zinc market demand is weak, and the pressure on zinc price decline has increased. In the future, the supply of zinc in the market is stable and the demand is sluggish, with significant pressure on zinc ingots. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 30th, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8875.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.39% compared to May 1st.

The market price of epichlorohydrin fell slightly in May. In the first half of the month, the raw material propylene market was operating weakly, with slightly weaker support for the cost side of the propylene method. The price of raw material glycerol was stable, and there was some support for the cost side of the glycerol method. The industry’s capacity utilization rate slightly declined, and supply side support was still acceptable. However, the demand side follow-up was limited, and inventory of raw materials was consumed in the downstream. The main focus of the market was to replenish goods on dips and demand. The trading atmosphere in the market was light, and the focus of discussions on epichlorohydrin was narrow and downward. In the second half of the month, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated narrowly, while the price of glycerol remained stable. There was some support on the cost side, while the supply and demand side was average. Enterprises mainly delivered orders, but the market remained stagnant and narrow in scope. As the price of raw material propylene decreased, the cost side support for propylene method weakened, and glycerol prices remained stable and stable. The cost pressure for glycerol method remained, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate increased compared to the previous period. The demand side was sluggish, and manufacturers were under pressure to ship, resulting in insufficient mentality among operators, The market is operating in a weak state, with narrow range consolidation of enterprise quotations and mixed ups and downs. As the end of the month approaches, the overall market for epichlorohydrin is operating in a light manner.

From the upstream and downstream perspectives, the reference price of upstream propylene was 6470.75 on May 29th, a decrease of 8.25% compared to May 1st (7052.60). Downstream epoxy resin, on May 29th, the reference price of epoxy resin was 14100.00, a decrease of 3.64% compared to May 1st (14633.33).

Analysts from Business Society’s epichlorohydrin believe that the current price of raw material propylene has slightly increased, with limited cost support and weak demand support. The market trading atmosphere is flat, and it is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may be weak in the short term. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

The price of plasticizer DOTP rose first and then fell in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 29th, the price of DOTP was 9851 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.45% compared to the price of 10760 yuan/ton on May 7th; The price has increased by 0.41% compared to 9811 yuan/ton on May 1st. Insufficient support for the rise of raw materials, the price of plasticizer DOTP rose first and then fell in May.

The price of isooctanol rose first and then fell in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, during the May Day holiday, the sudden shutdown of isooctanol devices drove up the price of isooctanol rapidly. On May 8th, the price of isooctanol was 10183.33 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 11.90% compared to 9100 yuan/ton on May 1st; DOTP production enterprises have octanol contracts to be executed, and there is also an appropriate amount of pre holiday stock of raw materials. Therefore, in the face of a sharp rise in the market, downstream customers have a low intention to buy at a high level, and there are gradually news of production stoppages. Insufficient demand has led to a rapid decline in the price of isooctanol. On May 12, the price of isooctanol was 9566.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.06% compared to May 8, when the price of isooctanol was 10183.33 yuan/ton; Afterwards, the supply and demand of isooctanol were relatively balanced, and the price of isooctanol stabilized at a high level. As of May 29, the price of isooctanol was 9460 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.96% compared to 9100 yuan/ton on May 1. In May, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated, but the current price is still difficult to attract the buying sentiment of end users, resulting in weak market transactions. The support for the increase in plasticizer product costs is weakened, and the price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and fell.

PTA prices fluctuated and fell in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, PTA prices fluctuated and fell in May; As of May 29th, the PTA price was 5614.55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.15% compared to the PTA price of 6180 yuan/ton on May 1st. Crude oil prices fluctuate and fall, naphtha prices fluctuate and fall, PTA raw material costs decrease, and PTA prices fluctuate and fall.

Downstream PVC prices fluctuate and fall

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, PVC prices fluctuated and fell in May, resulting in weak downstream demand; As of May 29th, the price of PVC was 5530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.67% compared to the price of PVC on May 1st, which was 5925 yuan/ton. The economy is weak, PVC demand is weak, PVC prices are fluctuating and falling, and there is insufficient demand for plasticizers.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in May, the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell, PTA prices fluctuated and fell, plasticizer product raw material prices fell, and DOTP costs decreased; PVC prices have fallen, and demand for plasticizer DOTP is weak. Overall, the supply of isooctanol has basically returned to normal, with insufficient support for the increase in raw material costs of plasticizer DOTP. The demand for plasticizers remains weak, and it is expected that plasticizer prices will decline weakly in the future.