According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic methanol market has stabilized at a low level. From May 22nd to 26th (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market increased from 2190 yuan/ton to 2194 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the price increased by 0.15%, with a maximum amplitude of 2.51%, a month on month decrease of 15.24%, and a year-on-year decrease of 21.67%.

The domestic methanol market continued to be weak, the futures price fell below the 200 yuan/ton mark, the raw coal market continued to be depressed, and the market sentiment became increasingly lack of confidence. The downstream demand has been weak for a long time, the social inventory in the methanol market has been accumulating, and the source of import goods has also been pouring in. The spot market price of methanol has fallen again and again. Towards the weekend, there was a wave of bargain hunting, and the market rebounded in a narrow range.

As of the close on May 26th, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuated upwards. The MA2309 contract opened at 1988 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 2055 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 1953 yuan/ton. It closed at 2049 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. As of the closing date, the position of the MA2309 contract was 2021800 hands, an increase of 121800 hands compared to the previous trading day.

On the cost side, there is a clear contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The price of raw coal is mainly weak. The cost of methanol is relatively weak.

On the demand side, the demand for methanol is mixed.

On the supply side, Inner Mongolia Dongri’s 200000 ton/year device has been put into operation. Inner Mongolia and Baitai, Xinjiang Xinye, Northwest Energy, Jiangsu Sopu, Pucheng Clean Energy, and a set of equipment maintenance in Shanxi. Shandong Mingshui, Xianyang Petroleum, Shenhua Ningmei, Inner Mongolia Dongneng, Jinmei Huayu, and a set of equipment maintenance in Inner Mongolia. The overall recovery exceeds the loss, so the capacity utilization rate has increased this week. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on May 25th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $325.00- $327.00 per ton, a decrease of $3 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 80.00-83.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 2700.00-272.00 euros/ton.

According to future forecasts, supply remains abundant, demand changes are limited, and costs continue to be weak. Business Society Methanol Analysts predict that the domestic methanol market may continue to be weak.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate have fluctuated this week. On May 25th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 282000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.81% compared to the average price of 277000 yuan/ton on May 21st. On May 25th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 304000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.33% compared to the average price of 300000 yuan/ton on May 21st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate has increased first and then decreased this week, with a slight downward trend. The price of upstream raw material lithium mica is still at a high level and the supply is limited, so traders have a certain reluctance to sell. The pricing power of spodumene is concentrated in overseas mines, and some lithium salt plants that extract spodumene from overseas are still in a state of production reduction due to cost issues. In addition, there was a strong sentiment of lithium carbonate being overpriced in the early stage, making it relatively difficult to find low-priced spot goods.

In terms of demand, downstream material factories mainly restock on demand, while some downstream companies accept high lithium prices due to strong demand, leading to a slight increase in the actual transaction price of lithium carbonate and a significant shift in lithium salt inventory. But at the same time, some downstream areas are still in a wait-and-see state. At present, the market sentiment of lithium carbonate is somewhat calm, and the price gradually returns to the fundamental operation.

Downstream lithium hydroxide prices are stabilizing. As the lithium carbonate market gradually returns to rationality, the lithium hydroxide market is also paying more attention to the actual recovery of demand, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the spot retail market has intensified.

The price trend of downstream lithium iron phosphate is on the rise, with a positive market trading atmosphere. The demand from downstream manufacturers is moderate, and the inventory of lithium iron phosphate is average. The price of upstream lithium carbonate is at a high level, with some cost support. The current trend is still strong, with an increase in downstream demand for lithium iron phosphate and smooth shipping.

Lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society believe that the current trend of the lithium carbonate market is gradually rational, with an increase in market supply. Some traders are in a selling mood, and despite no significant improvement in actual demand, the upstream and downstream games are still ongoing. It is expected that the short-term price of lithium carbonate will be mainly volatile and organized.

This week, the lead market (5.12-5.19) fell first and then rose. The average price in the domestic market was 15155 yuan/ton over the weekend, and 15230 yuan/ton over the weekend, up 0.49%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. Since the market entered September, the expectations of downstream battery companies have increased during the peak season, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the peak season ended, prices continued to weaken, and prices fluctuated weakly after the holiday.

In terms of the futures market, Shanghai lead fell first and then rose this week. Since Wednesday, prices have been rising for three consecutive days. On Friday, the main contract of Shanghai lead 2306 rose by 125 yuan/ton per day. However, in the case of continuous price increases in the spot market, the overall market atmosphere is wait-and-see, and actual trading is slightly cold. The trend of the spot market closely follows the trend of futures, with long-term market cooperation as the main focus and limited individual trading. There has been little change in supply and demand. In terms of supply, maintenance companies have recently resumed production, with sufficient supply compared to the previous period, and social inventory has also increased to a certain extent. The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in April 2023, China’s lead production reached 614000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% and a month on month decrease of 19.53%. Mainly affected by the maintenance of major production areas such as Henan and Yunnan in March, the total production has significantly decreased. Overall, there has been a slight increase in market supply after the holiday, while demand remains weak. In the future, the business community predicts that the trend will remain weak and volatile in the short term, with limited market volatility in the off-season.

On May 19, 2023, London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory remained unchanged at 33925 tons

On May 20th, the base metal index stood at 1170 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.60% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 82.24% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: Cycle refers to January 2011)

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 3250.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3050.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 6.15%. On May 22, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 96.43, a decrease of 0.4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 44.77% from the highest point of 174.60 points in the cycle (2022-06-21), and a 65.55% increase from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices quoted by mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have slightly decreased. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2800-3000 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium in ports is around 2900 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 3000 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2500 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate has slightly decreased this week, from 8480.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8390.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.06%, and the weekend price has decreased by 12.15% year-on-year. This week, the factory price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased, from 5375.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5300.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.40%. The weekend price decreased by 28.22% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In late May, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have stabilized at low levels. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with primary demand for procurement. International potassium fertilizer prices continue to decline. Potassium chloride analysts from Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

The focus of negotiations in the domestic acetone market has declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the negotiated price of acetone in the East China region fell to 5950 yuan/ton on May 19th, with a decrease of 300 yuan/ton or 6.3% during the week.

Sinopec lowered its listing price by 100-200 yuan/ton within the week. The downward adjustment of factories has a significant negative impact on the market. Although the operating rate of domestic phenolic ketone plants has declined and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not high, market trading is sluggish, with fewer active inquiries from terminals and insufficient actual orders.

On May 19th, the acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country were as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Weekly increase

East China region/ 5950./ -300

Shandong region/ 6200./ -200

Yanshan region/ 6280./ -200

South China region/ 6850./ -200

The inventory of imported goods has not changed much. The import volume of acetone in May was 28000 tons, and there are still sources of goods in transit. From a supply perspective, the supply of imported resources and materials is relatively sufficient.

Next week, the supply of domestic resources will tighten, and there will still be little change in port inventory. It is expected that acetone may stop falling next week, but whether the market can rise depends on downstream demand, with a focus on the actual order situation on the market.