1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of neopentyl glycol in the domestic market was adjusted at a high level this week. The average price of the mainstream market of neopentyl glycol in China this week was 10766.67 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 38.24% year-on-year. On May 16th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 51.24, a decrease of 0.65 points from yesterday, a decrease of 50.55% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 19.02% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The price of neopentyl glycol in the mainstream market was temporarily stable this week.

From the perspective of neopentyl glycol upstream raw material market, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell sharply this week. The average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market fell from 10400.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9166.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 11.86%. Weekend prices fell 40.35% year-on-year. The price of upstream raw material market fell sharply, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand, the price of neopentyl glycol was negatively affected.

3、 Future prospects

In mid to late May, the trend of the new pentanediol market may fluctuate slightly and decline mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has significantly declined, and cost support has weakened. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

Zinc prices fluctuate and fall after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 15th, the zinc price was 21018 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.67% compared to the zinc price of 21374 yuan/ton on May 1st; Compared to May 8th last week, the price of 21546 yuan/ton decreased by 2.45%. Weak demand and increased supply led to a volatile decline in zinc prices in May.

The decrease in zinc concentrate processing costs slowed down in May

From the trend chart of zinc concentrate processing fees, it can be seen that the decrease in zinc concentrate processing fees slowed down in May. On May 15th, the zinc concentrate processing fees rebounded and increased, leading to an increase in the enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises to start operations, an expected increase in zinc market production, an increase in zinc market supply, and an expected decrease in future zinc prices.

Zinc prices fluctuate and fall in London LME market

From the trend chart of zinc ingot prices in the London LME market, it can be seen that zinc prices in London fluctuated and fell in May. The international market is weak, the energy crisis in Europe has eased, the enthusiasm of zinc smelters to start construction has increased, the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase, the inventory of zinc ingots in London futures market is high, the international market demand is still weak, and the international zinc price has dropped in shock.

>Future Market Forecast

Business Society data analysts believe that the economic recovery is slow and the demand for zinc is weak. The decrease in zinc concentrate processing costs has slowed down, and the enthusiasm of domestic zinc smelting enterprises to start operations has increased, leading to an increase in supply in the domestic zinc market; In the international market, the energy crisis in Europe has eased, the enthusiasm of European zinc smelting enterprises has increased, and the supply of zinc has increased. In general, the supply of zinc has increased, and the economy is weak and the demand is insufficient. In the future, there is an increase in supply and weak demand for zinc in the market, and it is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market continued to fluctuate this week, with overall reductions in various wire drawing brands. As of May 12th, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7357.14 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -4.54% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: On the upstream side, the recent decline in the propylene market in Shandong has been significant. In the past half month, downstream equipment has been operating at a low level, and procurement volume is limited. Propylene enterprises are facing increasing export pressure, making profits and selling goods. In addition, due to the recent weakness of crude oil and multiple bearish pressures, the price of propylene has fallen significantly. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, with buying up rather than buying down. It is expected that the Shandong propylene market will mainly operate in a weak position.

The significant decline in propylene prices has led to a decrease in cost support for PP. In terms of industry load, the overall industry load this week was around 75%, and overall shipments remained stable. The on-site supply of goods is sufficient, and inventory pressure has increased. In terms of demand, the downstream plastic weaving production of the main force has slightly declined, while the production rate of film materials enterprises has decreased significantly. The stocking situation of terminal enterprises is poor, and procurement is mainly maintained for production.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 12th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has declined. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7462.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -3.08% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 16.62% compared to the same period last year. This week, the low load adjustment pattern of downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber material, continued, with an overall operating rate of around 30%. The current weak demand for fiber materials on the site is dragging down the digestion speed of non-woven end products, and the enterprise’s efforts to replenish fiber PP are lagging behind. In addition, the upstream bearish situation is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, this week’s melt blown PP market fluctuated. As of May 12th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society is about 8225 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the price has increased or decreased by -0.30%, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.56%. At present, the domestic health situation is stabilizing, and social consumption is becoming increasingly weak in driving medical meltblown fabric materials. The overseas demand has also not shown significant support, and traders have given up on orders, indicating that the melt blown material market may maintain a weak consolidation trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market has recently declined. The raw material propylene market has declined significantly, and the support from the cost side for the market is not good. Terminal enterprises tend to maintain production while receiving goods, with weak demand release. The market is biased towards bearish guidance, and it is expected that the PP market may maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 11th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3875.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to Monday’s price.

Recently, there has been no significant fluctuation in the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market, and enterprise quotations have generally remained stable. In the near future, the raw material sulfuric acid market is mainly stable, and the raw material methanol market is weak, with little impact on the cost. The normal shipment of enterprises is mainly, the downstream inquiry procurement continues to be just needed, and the price center of formic acid market is stable.

Upstream product: Upstream sulfuric acid. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for sulfuric acid was 210.00 on May 10th, a decrease of 3.82% compared to May 1st (218.33); Upstream methanol, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for methanol on May 11th was 2360.00, a decrease of 2.61% compared to May 1st (2423.33).

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that currently, upstream sulfuric acid and methanol prices are operating weakly, with slightly weaker cost support. Market transactions are mainly based on demand, and enterprise quotations follow the market. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may remain stable in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose sharply this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market rose from 7433.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9516.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 28.03%. Weekend prices fell by 37.25% year-on-year. On May 8th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 52.79, an increase of 4.48 points from yesterday, a decrease of 50.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 75.27% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have seen a significant increase in their quotations this week, resulting in low inventory. Some manufacturers have shut down for maintenance, resulting in tight supply.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7052.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6962.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.28%. Weekend prices fell by 20.89% year-on-year. The price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isobutyraldehyde was negatively affected. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly, and the market price rose from 10266.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10766.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 4.87%. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased, which has a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in mid to early May may be mainly fluctuating and rising. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased. Some manufacturers have shut down for maintenance, resulting in a tight circulation of isobutyraldehyde. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.