1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. The average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market rose from 6466.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6733.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 4.12%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 51.56% year-on-year. The isobutyraldehyde commodity index on January 8 was 34.18, which was the same as yesterday, down 67.63% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 13.48% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7244.60 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7250.60 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.08%. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol is low, and the price is 9133.33 yuan/ton. The market price of neopentyl glycol is low, and the downstream demand is general, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in the middle and late January may fall slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly, with general cost support. The market price of neopentyl glycol in the downstream market was low, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement was general. The isobutyraldehyde analyst of the Business Club believes that the short-term isobutyraldehyde market may suffer from small fluctuations and falls under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other factors.

This week (12.30-1.6), the bottom of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market was consolidated. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of January 6, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China was 10560 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 0.19% compared with 10580 yuan/ton last Friday. On the one hand, the sharp rise in raw material prices has brought upward pressure on the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber; on the other hand, the supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber continues to be loose. In addition, the downstream construction started to increase slightly at the end of December. Within the week, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber suppliers will first reduce the factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber and then increase it. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of January 6, Sinopec North China Sales Company reported the ex factory price of butadiene rubber at 10100 yuan/ton. The market is cautious and optimistic about the future market, and the market trading price has hit the bottom in a short term. As of the 6th day, the mainstream market of butadiene rubber in Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi, Sichuan and other regions had reported 10300~10800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream market of private butadiene rubber had reported 10150~10250 yuan/ton.

The price of raw butadiene rose sharply this week (12.30-1.6), and the cost of cis polybutadiene rubber rose sharply. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of January 6, the price of butadiene was 7785 yuan/ton, up 7.51% from 7241 yuan/ton last Friday.

The natural rubber market rose slightly this week (12.30-1.6), supporting cis polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of January 6, the price of natural rubber was 12410 yuan/ton, up 1.31% from 12250 yuan/ton last Friday.

Since the end of December, with the return of employees from all over the country to the downstream tire enterprises, the commencement of work has increased slightly, and the stock of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has been supplemented slightly, and the market turnover has recovered slightly.

Future market forecast: according to the analysts of the business community, the supply pressure of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is still present at present, but the downstream construction has increased slightly. In addition, the cost has risen significantly, and the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is at the bottom. It is expected that the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will rise slightly with the rising cost and demand growth in the later period.

In 2022, the market price of nitrile rubber will decline significantly. As of December 31, the price of nitrile rubber will be 15100 yuan/ton, down 37.34% from 24100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. Specifically, the market trend of nitrile rubber in 2022 mainly presents three stages: first, the price of raw butadiene rises sharply from the beginning of the year to the end of April, but in the later period, COVID-19 disperses in many places, and it is difficult to improve the control of downstream construction. Under the comprehensive influence, nitrile rubber fluctuates in a narrow range, with the low point of 23700 yuan/ton in the cycle, the high point of 24550 yuan/ton, and the amplitude of 3.59%. 2、 Under the impact of new capacity and weak demand, it began to decline sharply in May, from 24550 yuan/ton to 15762 yuan/ton on August 11, a decline of 35.79%. 3、 After the impact of new production capacity in the third and fourth quarters, nitrile rubber was close to the new balance point of supply and demand. In addition, the demand did not improve significantly. From the middle to late August to December 21, the nitrile rubber market showed a slight fluctuation at the bottom of the stage. The low point in the cycle was 15000 yuan/ton, the high point was 17000 yuan/ton, and the amplitude was 13.33%.

Supply side: The pressure on the supply side of nitrile rubber will increase in 2022, which will drag down the price of nitrile rubber. According to the business community, Lanzhou Petrochemical will add 35000 t/a capacity on the basis of the original 65000 t/a capacity in 2022. In the middle of May 2022, qualified products will be produced after the new plant is formally put into production. Later, as the products with new capacity are put on the market, they will have an impact on the domestic nitrile rubber market. In addition, in the middle and high temperature of the year, the downstream construction of power rationing will be low, and the price of nitrile rubber will go down all the way.

Demand side: The global economy will slow down in 2022, the overall demand for nitrile rubber will be weak, and the support for nitrile rubber will be weak, which will drag down the price of nitrile rubber. According to the statistics of China Rubber Association, from January to October 2022, the inventory of most professional finished products showed a growth trend, including tire growth of 13.73%, bicycle tire growth of 9.05%, rubber hose and tape growth of 10.99%, rubber products growth of 10.59%, and rubber shoes growth of 26.29%.

On the cost side: In 2022, the raw material butadiene market will first rise sharply and then fall in shock, and the price will generally rise in the whole year; Raw material acrylonitrile market fluctuated and fell. It can be seen from the price trend comparison chart of the business community that the consistency of 2022 raw materials and nitrile rubber market trend is relatively low, and the cost has no obvious impact on nitrile rubber market.

Future market forecast:

Butadiene analysts from the business community believe that there will still be pressure on the supply side of nitrile rubber in 2023. On the one hand, after the completion of the new Langshengtai Rubber Plant, the production capacity of nitrile rubber will increase from 30000 tons to 40000 tons. In addition, Jinpuyingsa still has a production capacity of 30000 tons, which will depend on the market situation.

Demand side: It is understood that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that the global economic growth will slow to 2.7% in 2023. It is estimated that about one-third of the world’s economies will shrink in 2023. It is estimated that the global demand for nitrile rubber will still face pressure in 2023.

In general, the market of nitrile rubber will hardly improve in 2023. Affected by the light and busy seasons, the price will rise in the first half of the year and fall again in the second half of the year. The price will fluctuate between 14000 yuan/ton and 20000 yuan/ton.

In December, the market of polybutadiene rubber fell first and then stabilized. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the price of cis polybutadiene rubber was 10580 yuan/ton as of December 30, down 3.73% from 10990 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, under the pressure of the supply side of cis polybutadiene rubber, the ex factory price of two barrels of oil of cis polybutadiene rubber was lowered, and the market price of cis polybutadiene rubber fell 4.73% within eight days. In the later period, as the price of cis polybutadiene rubber fell sharply, downstream inquiries increased, and the overall market was stable.

Supply side: the commencement of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in December was slightly higher than that in November, and the supply side was under pressure. According to the business agency, the high load or full load production of Shunding devices in Daqing, Sichuan, Maoming, Qixiang, and the restart of early maintenance devices such as Haopu still put pressure on the supply side of Shunding rubber.

Cost: butadiene prices rose sharply in December, while the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 30, the price of butadiene was 7241 yuan/ton, up 13.01% from 6407 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In December, the natural rubber market fluctuated and consolidated, which still supported cis polybutadiene rubber. As of December 30, the price was 12250 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from 12220 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The monthly high point was 12520 yuan/ton, and the low point was 12160 yuan/ton. The early December coincided with traders and downstream factories preparing goods before the year. The domestic latex market experienced a process of firming up to stabilizing. In the month, the index of substitute rubber increased, and the import rubber continued to increase; In the later period, with the end of Chinese manufacturers’ stock up, the export price of Southeast Asian rubber stabilized until a small drop of two or three hundred yuan per ton. With the arrival of imported rubber from China’s main ports and the accumulation of social inventory, the price of China’s natural rubber market continues to fluctuate, with a slight weakening trend.

Demand side: In December, due to the further liberalization of epidemic prevention, the manufacturing industry in some domestic regions was impacted in the short term, the downstream tire enterprises started to decline, and the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber became weaker. According to the business community, the construction of all steel tires in Shandong will be less than 60%.

Future market forecast: according to the analysts of the business community, the pressure on the supply side of cis polybutadiene rubber is still there, the cost side is higher, but the demand side is weak in the short term. If the demand side does not improve in the future, then cis polybutadiene rubber will continue to run weak in January.

Following the sharp rise of 14.6% in the MIBK market in November, the mainstream price of the domestic market rose from 11633 yuan/ton on November 1 to 13333.3 yuan/ton on December 1. In December, the trend of stability first followed by a sharp rise. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the MIBK market price was 13333.3 yuan/ton on December 1. As of December 29, the market price rose to 15333 yuan/ton, a 15% increase in December.

The domestic operating rate dropped sharply, and the market rose sharply under the tight supply. On December 25, Li Changrong, Zhenjiang, shut down the 50000 t/a MIBK unit. The restart time is uncertain and may take a long time. The total capacity of domestic MIBK is only 125000 tons. Large units were shut down, and the domestic operating rate fell below 40%. The market rose along the trend under tight supply.

The market continues to be strong, and the social inventory is low. Since the short-term maintenance of multiple devices in November, the market supply has remained tight, and the 15000 tons in Zhenyang, Ningbo, were parked for half a month in the first half of the month. However, due to the epidemic situation in the country at the beginning of the month, only a few traders have goods in their hands, and the supply of social products continues to be tight.

Acetone at the raw material end was at a high level in the first ten days, slightly supported by the cost. Taking the acetone market in East China as an example, the negotiated price in East China acetone market has been at a high level of 5900-6000 yuan/ton from December 5 to 15, and the market gradually declined to 5450 yuan/ton in the last ten days. However, throughout the year, the acetone market was at a relatively high level in December, supported by costs.

The orders of the downstream antioxidant industry were stable, but they were mainly in demand at the end of the year. The downstream antioxidant 4020 factory mainly delivers orders, and the factory MIBK directly connects with the antioxidant factory, with limited distribution to the market. At present, the downstream main factories are limited to follow up before New Year’s Day, and small order replenishment is dominant. The short-term MIBK market continues to rise, which is not supported by good profits.

From the perspective of the business community, the supply of MIBK continued to be tight in December, and by the end of the month, the shutdown operation rate of large devices dropped to below 40%, which prompted the MIBK market to continue to rise after the sharp rise in November. However, in the near future, the downstream just needs small order replenishment, and the actual order quantity is limited before New Year’s Day, while the main downstream antioxidant 4020 enterprises still have some stocks, which is slightly resistant to the high priced raw materials, and lacks the motivation to continue to catch up in the short term, The business agency expects that the MIBK market will run stably in the short term, and the negotiation is expected to be 15000 yuan/ton.