Supply and demand support the n-butanol market to rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 6, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7266 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 6900 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 366 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.31%.

 

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in the first week of November, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China, showed a slight upward trend. Entering November, the n-butanol market is operating steadily and steadily. Entering this week, the market price of n-butanol is gradually approaching high levels, and factories and suppliers in Shandong have raised the ex factory price of n-butanol by 100-150 yuan/ton. As of November 6th, the reference price for n-butanol in the domestic Shandong region is around 7200-7300 yuan/ton.

 

On the supply side: In November, the overall supply performance of n-butanol in the field was stable, and the supply side provided stable support similar to n-butanol.

 

On the demand side: Currently, downstream demand for n-butanol has improved, with a mild atmosphere for on-site inquiries. Overall transactions for n-butanol have also improved, and prices in the n-butanol market are gradually rising with the support of demand.

 

Market analysis in the future

 

At present, downstream replenishment of n-butanol is relatively active, and the atmosphere in the market is gradually warming up. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly operate in a stable to strong direction, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

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The domestic maleic anhydride market rose first and then fell in October

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market first rose and then fell in October, with an overall decline and a new low for 2024. As of October 31st, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 6430.00 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 1.53% from 6530.00 yuan/ton on October 1st.

 

Supply side: Henan and Hebei have resumed production, while Qingdao has not yet resumed production; In the first half of October, there was a significant increase during the National Day holiday, which boosted domestic commodity prices. In addition, the resumption of unsaturated resin production after the holiday resulted in a replenishment of essential demand for maleic anhydride, supporting the upward trend in the maleic anhydride market; In the second half of the month, the operating rate of maleic anhydride has increased, the supply has increased, the prices of the main maleic anhydride factories have fallen, and the quotes from distributors have also fallen. The market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and new orders and urgent needs are mainly followed up. As of October 31st, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 5900 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 5600 yuan/ton.

 

Upstream: Pure benzene prices continued to decline in October. On October 1st, the price was 8183.00 yuan/ton; On October 31st, the price was 7113.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.08%.

 

The international crude oil market fluctuated in October, and the price of n-butane in the market fell. As of October 31, the price in Shandong was around 5050-5150 yuan/ton.

 

Downstream: Currently, the unsaturated resin market is mainly stable, with downstream essential purchases of unsaturated resin being the main focus. There is limited support for unsaturated resin, and the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

 

The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that downstream unsaturated resins maintain a strong demand and provide limited support for the maleic anhydride market; The supply of maleic anhydride has increased, but the price of maleic anhydride has fallen to the annual low point, and some factories have no intention of continuing to lower their prices. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

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Lack of effective benefits, narrow adjustment of polyethylene price

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8446 yuan/ton on October 23, and the average price was 8466 yuan/ton on October 30, with a price increase of 0.24% during this period.

 

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10916 yuan/ton on October 23, and the average price was 10866 yuan/ton on October 30, during which the quotation fell by 0.46%.

 

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (2426H) was 8500 yuan/ton on October 23, and the average price was 8475 yuan/ton on October 30, with a price drop of 0.29% during this period.

 

As the end of the month approached, polyethylene showed a weak overall trend with narrow adjustments. In order to promote transactions, merchants actively offered discounts and shipped goods. On the supply side, petrochemical companies have reduced maintenance and supply is loose. On the demand side, the downstream demand for agricultural film is in the peak season, but the operating rate is still at a low level during the same period, and the support is insufficient. Crude oil has fluctuated and declined, and cost support has loosened. The market lacks effective positive factors, and it is expected that polyethylene will experience a weak and narrow adjustment.

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Positive support for palm oil oscillation and rise in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the palm oil market fluctuated and rose mainly in October, with an increase of nearly 9%. On October 1st, the average market price of palm oil was 8696 yuan/ton, and on October 30th, the average market price of palm oil was 9476 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 8.97%.

 

Lido continues to fluctuate and rise in the palm oil market in October

 

After the National Day holiday, the palm oil market heated up and prices fluctuated upwards. This round of palm oil price increase is mainly due to the rise in Malaysian palm oil futures prices in the external market, good supply and demand prospects, export growth, and increased spot market. The average price of palm oil in the domestic market has risen to around 9000 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 5% compared to the beginning of the month.

 

In the middle of the month, Malaysia’s palm oil production entered the off-season in the foreign market, causing a decline in palm oil futures. The domestic palm oil futures market fluctuated and fell, and the spot market weakened. The average price of palm oil in the domestic market has fallen to around 9100 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 1%.

 

At the end of the month, the main producing country Malaysia entered a production reduction cycle, with reduced supply and inventory. Supported by external markets, the domestic palm oil spot market has once again seen an upward trend, with palm oil prices returning to a high of 9500 yuan/ton.

 

The agricultural product analyst of Shengyi Society believes that since November, the rigid demand for oil and fat has increased, and the external market is still bullish. The domestic palm oil market is expected to continue to rise.

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The market price of cyclohexane remains stable

1、 Price trend

 

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of October 29th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China this week was 7833.33 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to the same period last week. The price of cyclohexane remained strong this week, with manufacturers mainly offering discounts and taking orders. The shipment was active, downstream demand was still acceptable, inventory was slowly consumed, and overall market procurement enthusiasm was still acceptable.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

In terms of cost: Currently, the cost support for cyclohexane is insufficient, and the atmosphere of downstream on-site negotiations is light. Cyclohexane lacks favorable support, and downstream follow-up is slow, mainly focusing on essential procurement.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is insufficient momentum for the expected short-term increase in cyclohexane market prices.

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