According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market saw a slight increase in September 2025, with an average price of 16780 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16850 yuan/ton at the end of the month, representing a monthly increase of 0.42%.
On September 30th, the Business Society Lead Index was 102.55, up 0.03 points from yesterday, down 23.48% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (2016-11-29), and up 37.41% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.
At the beginning of September, the consumption of lead-acid batteries in China still did not show significant improvement, and the performance of the traditional peak consumption season did not meet expectations, resulting in the continuous accumulation of domestic lead ingot inventory. At the same time, the loss situation of domestic recycled lead smelting enterprises continues, and the operating rate of enterprises is at a relatively low level. In the mid month stage, the scale of production reduction and shutdown of domestic recycled lead smelting enterprises further expanded. The market generally expects that domestic recycled lead smelting enterprises may have difficulty increasing production in the short term, coupled with the influx of multiple funds into the market, leading to a rapid rise in Shanghai lead prices, which have since maintained a fluctuating trend.
supply side
In September, domestic primary lead smelters that were previously under maintenance gradually resumed production. At the same time, some smelters started winter storage work ahead of schedule, resulting in a significant increase in demand for lead ore. However, the imported mineral market still presents a situation of price but no market, and it is expected that the domestic lead concentrate market will remain in a tight balance in October. In terms of lead containing waste, there has been no significant improvement in the scrap volume in the domestic market recently, and the price of lead containing waste in China is expected to continue to rise but not fall.
Demand side
September and October were supposed to be the peak consumption season for lead-acid batteries, but this year’s market performance did not meet expectations. Affected by multiple factors such as tariff adjustments and price comparison effects, the export order volume of some lead-acid batteries has significantly declined. At the same time, the lead-acid battery market has shown a trend of “not weak in the off-season and not strong in the peak season” this year, with a relatively stable overall consumption level and a lack of obvious growth momentum. It is worth noting that with the official implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles in September, some downstream enterprises have reported an increase in new car matching orders. In the future, we need to continue to pay attention to the potential driving effect of this trend on the lead consumption market.
Prediction of future trends
In the domestic market, the supply of lead ingots is expected to increase, but there is no significant sign of recovery in consumer demand. Based on this market situation, lead prices may face certain downward pressure.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber fluctuated downward in September. As of September 29th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6444 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.39% from the beginning of the month.
The crude oil market was affected by both long and short factors, with prices fluctuating widely in September. As of the 26th, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $65.72 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $69.22 per barrel. On the one hand, geopolitical factors remain one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. The Russia Ukraine issue has led to a strong operation of the crude oil market, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts benefiting the international oil market and the crude oil market. On the other hand, Saudi crude oil may increase production, leading to an increase in US crude oil inventories. In addition, with the end of the peak oil season in the US, the global economic outlook and oil demand are not optimistic, putting pressure on crude oil market prices.
After a continuous decline in the domestic PTA market in September, the bottom has recovered. As of the end of September, the average market price in East China was 4612 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.01% from the beginning of the month. Worried about the continued increase in crude oil production, the expected increase in PTA supply, and weak demand, the main reason for the decline was in mid to early September. At the end of the month, the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered potential supply risks. Crude oil rebounded, the supply and demand of downstream pre festival stock improved, and PTA prices recovered slightly from low levels. In September, PTA plant maintenance and restart coexisted. Currently, the operating load of the PTA industry is around 77%, and the supply of plants has changed significantly. However, the overall spot supply is still loose, and social inventory has accumulated slightly. There are some equipment maintenance plans in October, but 3 million tons of new equipment will be put into operation as scheduled, further increasing market supply pressure.
At present, we are in the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden September and Silver October”, but downstream yarn factories have not seen the expected significant rebound in demand, mainly for essential purchases. The overall market performance is flat, and the support for upstream raw materials is relatively limited. Terminal orders have moderately rebounded, but the order volume is average and constrained by high inventory levels. Therefore, caution is exercised in raw material procurement, with a focus on small batches. At the end of the month, due to the impact of the pre holiday period, some downstream yarn factories have made up a small amount of inventory, but the sustainability is insufficient.
Business analysts believe that the continuous deployment of new PTA production capacity has intensified market concerns about oversupply, with weak support on the cost side. Downstream enterprises’ inventory replenishment before the National Day holiday has basically ended, and the market lacks clear positive guidance. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will be weak in October.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in September 2025, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market fluctuated downward, with an average price of 184000 yuan/ton on September 1 and 175000 yuan/ton on September 28, a cumulative decline of 4.89%.
Supply side: tight supply of antimony ore
From the above chart, it can be seen that the overall import volume of antimony ore and concentrate in China from January to August 2025 is lower than that in 2024. The import volume of antimony ore and concentrate from January to August 2025 was 24449.9 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 52.1%. The highest import volume in January 2025 was 4543 tons, and the lowest import volume in March 2025 was 1483 tons. The overall import volume is lower than the same period last year, and the overall supply of antimony ore in China is still tight.
According to customs statistics, the import volume of antimony ore sand and concentrate in China in August 2025 was 4376.9 tons, an increase of 89.7% month on month and a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year.
Demand side: Weak expectations for terminal consumption
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field.
Antimony oxide: Due to the high raw material prices, the inventory of antimony oxide has remained relatively high recently, and the export performance is average. The overall market sentiment is weak. Although there is some stocking demand near the holiday, the overall demand is rigid and the purchase volume is low. Due to the lack of market confidence, the antimony oxide market as a whole declined in September, with a downward adjustment of about 12500 yuan/ton.
Photovoltaics: With the continuous rise in raw material prices, under cost pressure, some photovoltaic enterprises are currently reducing production, and the overall procurement of raw materials is biased towards rigid demand. As the holiday approaches, some downstream enterprises are suspending production and taking a break, further weakening the demand for raw materials.
Outlook for the future: Poor performance on the demand side is the main reason for the weakening of the antimony ingot market. Overall, there is no significant change in terminal demand at present, and it still maintains a strong demand. It is expected that the antimony ingot market will continue to operate steadily, moderately, and weakly in the short term. The future market needs to focus on the actual impact of the new regulations on the import of antimony raw materials implemented from September 1st on the market.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7355 yuan/ton on September 22 and 7345 yuan/ton on September 26, a decrease of 0.14%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9576 yuan/ton on September 22, and an average price of 9556 yuan/ton on September 26, a decrease of 0.21%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 7975 yuan/ton on September 22, and an average price of 7912 yuan/ton on September 26, a decrease of 0.78%.
Polyethylene has been running weakly this week, with a narrow price reduction. The polyethylene market has sufficient supply. On the demand side, with the National Day and Mid Autumn Festival approaching, there are expectations for downstream stocking, but there is insufficient follow-up on new orders, resulting in lower than expected demand growth and limited support for the polyethylene market. Merchants actively reduce inventory, but downstream customers have limited willingness to receive goods, resulting in a weak downward trend in polyethylene prices. On the cost side, the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered potential supply risks. In addition, the decline of the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory and the rise of international oil prices supported the polyethylene market to some extent on the cost side.
Polyethylene supply is sufficient, but the peak demand season is not as expected. Downstream factories have a slow increase in operating load, and procurement is cautious. It is expected that polyethylene will mainly operate in a narrow range of fluctuations.

After September, the production of domestic phenol ketone plants dropped to a level of 65%, which boosted the willingness of holders to ship at low prices. However, port inventory accumulation was obvious, and spot goods were still abundant. After a brief upward trend, the market fell again, with limited overall decline. As of now, the acetone market in East China is deadlocked between 4500-4550 yuan/ton, and the phenol market in East China is at 6900-6950 yuan/ton, 6850 yuan/ton (to be increased after the holiday).
Market Trends of Phenol and Acetone in East China
In the first quarter of 2025, Shandong Province added 250000 tons of phenol ketone production capacity, and in the third quarter, Zhenhai added 650000 tons of phenol ketone equipment. In September, the domestic phenol ketone production capacity base increased to 10.8 million tons.
In July, there were 10 sets of phenol ketone maintenance units in China, with a total production capacity of 3.02 million tons per year and a loss of 143000 tons. Eight sets of phenol ketone units were inspected in August, with a total production capacity of 2.12 million tons per year and a loss of around 130000 tons. The parking loss in September increased month on month.
By the end of the third quarter and the fourth quarter of 2025, the phenol ketone industry is expected to add 2 sets of production facilities with a total capacity of 650000 tons, mainly concentrated in the Northeast and North China regions. It is expected that the overall supply of phenol ketone will show an increasing trend in the fourth quarter, with a month on month growth of 9%, and is expected to reach 2.26 million tons. There is uncertainty in the production time of the new device, and the specific production time shall prevail. Further follow-up is needed.