Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market in China was generally stable in January, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing a slight decline. As of January 31st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 16483.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.20% compared to January 1st.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: As we enter January, the domestic PC aggregation enterprises have a stable pattern of load absorption, with very limited changes. The average monthly operating rate of the industry has decreased by 1% to 77%. The average weekly production remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons, and the on-site supply of goods is still abundant. The supply-demand imbalance pattern remains unchanged. The inventory position is relatively high, manufacturers are cautious in pricing, and the market supply side is generally supportive of PC prices.

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that after the significant recovery of bisphenol A at the end of last year, the bulls gradually ran out in early January, and downstream demand remained stable. After the upward movement of bisphenol A prices was blocked, it entered a consolidation market. However, before the holiday, upstream crude oil prices surged significantly, boosting the confidence of industry players. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is still acceptable.

On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the overall trend continues to be weak at the end of last year. At the end of last year, some export orders were placed in advance in the market, and in January, the overall logic of weak rigid demand procurement returned. The pre holiday stocking efforts were average, and the industry’s wait-and-see sentiment was biased. During the month, most downstream factories will be on vacation, and the load on end enterprises will decline. Buyers are resistant to high priced goods. The slow circulation of goods in the market has limited changes, and the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

In January, the domestic PC market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations and consolidation, with a clear trend during holidays. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently maintaining consolidation, providing sufficient support for the PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants slightly decreased by 1%, while the supply remained loose and unchanged. The high level of inventory in the industry has limited changes, and there has been no substantial improvement in supply pressure. At the beginning of February, the downstream logic revolves around pre holiday inventory preparation, and the return of operators still needs a process. It is expected that PC will continue to focus on organizing and running in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of soda ash remained stable this week. As of January 24th, the average market price of soda ash was 1494 yuan/ton, which was the same as the January 20th soda ash price of 1494 yuan/ton and a decrease of 2.23% from the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the soda ash market has remained stable with small fluctuations. The on-site equipment is running smoothly, with sufficient inventory of soda ash, and manufacturers are mainly maintaining shipments. The downstream market is declining, and support for soda ash is weak. The market trading atmosphere is average, and there is a game of supply and demand in the on-site market, resulting in slight fluctuations in soda ash prices.

As of January 24th, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1400-1500 yuan/ton for light soda ash, with a price increase of 20 yuan/ton; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1350-1480 yuan/ton for light soda ash, with a price increase of 20 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market is running weakly. From January 20th to 24th, glass prices fell from 16.48 yuan/square meter to 16.30 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 1.09%. In the latter half of the month, the glass market maintained stable production, with an increase in market inventory. Downstream pre holiday stocking is coming to an end, and manufacturers’ shipments have weakened, leading to a downward trend in glass prices.

Future forecast: Currently, domestic soda ash inventory is high, spot alkali factory sales are under pressure, downstream pre holiday stocking sentiment is weakened, market trading is limited, and industry players are adopting a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that soda ash will operate weakly and steadily in the short term, and specific attention will be paid to downstream demand follow-up.

Aluminum prices strengthen in January

Aluminum prices strengthened overall in January, but as the Spring Festival approaches, the trend of aluminum prices begins to turn around. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 23, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20213.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.17% from the market average price of 19783.33 yuan/ton on January 1, and a decrease of 0.62% from yesterday.

Recently, aluminum prices have reversed the decline of the past two months, and have stopped falling and risen, with a slight rebound in aluminum prices. However, the price of its main raw material alumina continued to plummet, with prices continuing to decline in January.

The trend of alumina prices and aluminum prices deviated in January, and the cost support for aluminum prices in the early stage weakened, leading to a recovery in aluminum plant profits.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8921 yuan/ton on January 1, and the average price was 8441 yuan/ton on January 22, during which the quotation fell by 5.38%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10550 yuan/ton on January 1, and the average price was 10000 yuan/ton on January 22, during which the quotation fell by 5.21%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (2426H) was 8587 yuan/ton on January 1, and the average price was 8400 yuan/ton on January 22, during which the quotation fell by 2.18%.

The polyethylene market has been continuously declining since January. On the supply side, with the continuous increase in new production capacity in the early stage, Wanhua Chemical’s Phase II PE plant has been put into operation, and coupled with the resumption of production by the early maintenance plant, the pressure on the supply side continues to increase. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream demand weakens and factory operating rates decrease, with a significant decline in agricultural film operating rates. At the end of the year, merchants actively lowered their quotations to reduce inventory, mainly by offering discounts for shipments. As of Wednesday’s close, international oil prices have fallen for five consecutive trading days, with a range decline of nearly 5%, and cost support has weakened.

Since January, the trend of plastic futures has been mainly volatile and weak, which is bearish for the spot market. Among them, on January 22, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene l2505 contract opened at 7800 yuan and closed at 7777 yuan, down 56 yuan, with a high of 7813 yuan and a low of 7763 yuan, down 0.71%.

The newly added production capacity continues to increase, with the Spring Festival holiday approaching and downstream shutdowns and holidays. Market supply pressure still exists, and the fundamentals are weak. It is expected that polyethylene will continue to show a weak trend.

Recently, the domestic PTA spot market has shown a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 22, the average price of PTA market in East China was 5065 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% from the beginning of the week.

After taking office, Trump’s previous sanctions may be overturned, and his policies such as increasing US crude oil production, imposing tariffs, and trade risks tend to be bearish on oil prices, leading to a short-term pullback in crude oil prices. As of January 21st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.83 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $79.29 per barrel.

The export volume of PTA in December 2024 was 258000 tons, a decrease of 174000 tons from November and a 40% decrease compared to the previous month. The main reason is that the commissioning of new PTA facilities abroad has led to a decrease in demand for Chinese PTA from abroad. Türkiye is China’s largest export customer. In 2024, China will export 799000 tons of PTA to Türkiye, accounting for 18% of China’s total exports. In 2025, the design capacity of Türkiye’s new PTA plant will be 1.5 million tons, and the supply increase will squeeze the export market share of China’s PTA.

The maintenance of downstream polyester units continues to advance, and some individual units have also been opened. Overall, the polyester load continues to decrease to around 81%. According to statistics, it is expected that the maintenance loss of polyester in January and February will be 1.32 million tons, with polyester production capacity accounting for 15.4%. The terminal stocking phase has ended, and the polyester production will be reduced near the Spring Festival holiday. There is still room for further reduction.

Business analysts predict that the decline in crude oil and poor PTA exports will lead to a higher than expected accumulation of PTA inventory. In addition, the low purchasing enthusiasm of the demand side, combined with various negative factors, is expected to result in a weak adjustment of PTA market before the Spring Festival.