According to the data monitoring of the business community, the acrylonitrile market in December fell sharply. As of December 26, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 9620 yuan/ton, down 8.38% from 10500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, the start of the acrylonitrile industry declined slightly, but the inventory pressure was still large. In December, the listing price of acrylonitrile enterprises decreased significantly in the early stage and remained stable in the late stage. On the other hand, downstream demand was impacted in the month, and the offer of merchants went down all the way. As of December 26, the mainstream offer of acrylonitrile market in East China was 9400~10200 yuan/ton.

According to the business community, in December, some enterprises such as Jilin Petrochemical and Secco reduced the load of acrylonitrile units. In December, the start of acrylonitrile industry declined slightly, but the manufacturer’s inventory pressure was still high.

In December, the price of raw propylene fell, while the cost of acrylonitrile fell. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 26, the domestic propylene price was 7378 yuan/ton, down 4.06% from 7690 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Near the end of the year, COVID-19 was distributed in many places, and production, logistics and transportation were impacted in the short term. In December, ABS, acrylamide/polyacrylamide and other industries downstream of acrylonitrile started to decline; Acrylic fiber and nitrile rubber industry started to maintain stability, and the demand for acrylonitrile was weaker than in the early stage.

Future forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from the business community believe that, on the one hand, the inventory pressure of acrylonitrile is still in the short term, on the other hand, the current demand is weak; It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be weak and consolidated in the later period.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate has been declining continuously recently. As of December 21, the average domestic mixed price of industrial lithium carbonate was 525000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.08% compared with the average price of 559000 yuan/ton on December 11. On December 21, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 545000 yuan/ton, down 5.71% compared with the average price of 578000 yuan/ton on December 11.

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate has continued to decline in the near future. The price of large lithium salt plants has been slightly adjusted. Some of them have been sold on spot, and they are in a strong mood to support the price. They are also starting to sign a long-term agreement order for next year. However, traders have strong bearish sentiment, so the selling sentiment is heavy, and the transaction price keeps falling.

On the demand side, the downstream Sanyuan and lithium iron plants are not willing to purchase, the market transaction price and purchase price have been reduced, and the downstream and terminal markets are basically in the state of digesting inventory. In addition to the current increase in the spot volume of lithium carbonate, the price continues to weaken in the market where the supply is strong and the demand is weak.

The price of lithium hydroxide in the downstream has declined. At present, the first tier manufacturers of lithium hydroxide mainly export, the second tier manufacturers mainly supply domestic demand, and the lithium hydroxide market is dominated by long-term transactions. The spot market atmosphere is light. In addition, the recent decline in the upstream lithium carbonate price has weakened the support for lithium hydroxide. The shipment of the holders is under pressure, and the price reduction shipment has increased. The focus of the lithium hydroxide market negotiation has declined.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream is stable. At present, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the logistics is slow. In the short term, the early trend will be maintained. The manufacturer only supplies old customers, but the number of new customers is limited.

The lithium carbonate analysts of the business community believe that at present, the downstream and terminal markets have mainly digested the inventory, and the demand is declining. The price of lithium carbonate is unlikely to rise before the Spring Festival. The market sentiment and expected price continue to weaken. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will show a weak consolidation in the short term.

This week (12.12-16), the domestic price of ethyl acetate did not change much. According to the statistics of the business community, the decline this week was 0, the raw material acetic acid hovered at a low level, the main factories in Shandong stopped selling, the market supply was tight compared with the previous period, and ethyl acetate temporarily stopped falling due to the improvement of supply and demand. At the weekend, the market price of ethyl acetate was between 6200-6500 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of acetic acid, according to the monitoring of the business community, the price of acetic acid continued to decline this week, with a weekly drop of 0.55%. The price is still low. Downstream demand downturn is difficult to support prices out of the haze, especially in North China, Northwest and other regions where demand is weak, and the fundamentals are negative, which may be difficult to reverse in the later period.

From the above figure, we can see that the price trends of acetic acid and ethyl acetate are highly correlated. Recently, the curves of the two intersect, and the decline of acetic acid is stronger than that of downstream ethyl acetate.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, the starting rate of ethyl acetate this week decreased slightly, and the current operating rate of the industry is about 5.5% to 60%. Shandong large factories suspended sales, easing the pressure on market supply, but high social inventory still restricts the price rebound. This week, the quotations of some manufacturers were stable, and the prices of some factories were raised. However, the market expectation turned weak. At present, the situation that the supply of ethyl acetate exceeded the demand remains unchanged.

On the demand side, the downstream procurement remained just in demand, and the purchase intention of dealers and downstream factories was weak in the late ten days. The main factories in Shandong changed from auction to retail, and the deal was not ideal. Downstream orders contracted, resulting in a significant slowdown in the speed of goods delivery. The number of transactions in the market is relatively small, and most transactions are at low prices.

In the future, the ethyl acetate analysts of the business community believed that the current raw material acetic acid is sluggish, which is not much good. It is unlikely that it will continue to rebound in the later period, and the cost will not be supported. In addition, the supply and demand will not improve too much. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term weakness of acetic acid will not change, and the price will fluctuate slightly.

441 # silicon price trend

This week, the price of silicon metal is still weak, and the silicon market is in an atmosphere of strong supply and weak demand, led by weak demand. As of December 18, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the domestic market was 19630 yuan/ton according to the monitoring of the business community.

On the 16th, the price of 441 # silicon in various regions was as follows:

The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Huangpu Port area is 19500-19700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 19600 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Tianjin Port is 19500-1960 yuan/ton, with an average price of 19550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Kunming is 19300-19500 yuan/ton, 19400 yuan/ton on average; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Sichuan is 19200-19400 yuan/ton, with an average of 19300 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Shanghai is 20200-20400 yuan/ton, and the average price is 20300 yuan/ton.

Factors Affecting the Declining Price of Silicon Metal

Supply:

This week, the number of metal silicon furnaces has risen slightly. It is understood that the total number of metal silicon furnaces is 702. As of December 16, the metal silicon furnace opening rate is about 48.58%, 105 in Xinjiang, 47 in Sichuan and 65 in Yunnan. The production situation in Xinjiang has improved, and it is expected that the number of furnaces will continue to increase in the future. The number of furnace shutdowns in Sichuan and Yunnan continued to increase. Under the pressure of cost, the number of furnace shutdowns by manufacturers in southwest China still had room for decline.

Demand:

The mainstream quotation of polysilicon is 281666.66 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon keeps falling, the price of silicon chips drops synchronously, and the production capacity keeps increasing. It is expected that the demand for metal silicon will remain prosperous in the short term; The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 fell by 100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation was 19000 yuan/ton. The operating rate of aluminum plants was still not high. Under the mood of buying up rather than buying down, they were not willing to stock up on metal silicon; The silicone DMC market generally runs up in a narrow range. The quotation reference is 17040 yuan/ton. The downstream demand of silicone DMC has improved to some extent, but the overall trend is still to be cautious and low mining.

Future market forecast

Weak market demand continues to exert pressure on the price of metal silicon. However, silicon plants are facing high costs, and the upstream and downstream of silicon continue to play games. It is expected that metal silicon will still operate in a weak way in the short term. As prices continue to dip and costs continue to rise, the price support sentiment of silicon plants will become stronger and the market is expected to stabilize.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of December 17, the average price of domestic rubber grade white carbon black was 5750.00 yuan/ton, unchanged compared with the same period last week, and the overall market was mainly stable.

This week, the white carbon black market is mainly stable, with the mainstream price of 6000 yuan/ton, mainly for contract customers, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is ordinary.

Chemical index: On December 16, the chemical index was 930 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 33.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 55.52% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

The white carbon black analyst of the business association believes that the rubber grade white carbon black market will operate stably in the short term.