Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has seen a narrow rise, with spot prices of various brands increasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 22, the average price of ABS sample products was 10812.50 yuan/ton, a+1.14% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: At the end of last year, the domestic ABS industry had a high load, and due to supply pressure, the load of enterprises decreased independently. Recently, the operating rate of ABS polymerization enterprises has been lowered to around 66%, resulting in stable production and a continued decline in inventory due to the manufacturer’s destocking operations. But the profit situation of the enterprise has not improved, and the improvement of supply side pressure is limited.

In terms of raw materials, the recent trend of ABS upstream three materials is still good, among which the acrylonitrile market is relatively weak. The rise in raw material propylene prices provides reasonable cost support for acrylonitrile. But the supply of acrylonitrile is relatively loose, and the market is not buying well. But fortunately, some forward contracts and pre holiday stocking dragged the bottom, resulting in weak prices and stagnant operations.

Recently, the atmosphere of the domestic butadiene market has been high, with a significant increase last week. The main production enterprise Sinopec has raised its quotation twice by 200 yuan/ton, and a small number of bidding sources have significantly increased their prices to complete transactions. At the same time, the external prices have continued to rise, bringing a significant boost to the domestic butadiene market. The downstream synthetic rubber market trend is relatively strong, driving the market’s quotation to rise broadly at one point.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene has risen this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased, and cost support is still acceptable. The increase in maintenance of styrene units has led to a contraction in market supply. The transaction in the market is still good, with a slight upward trend in the market.

In terms of demand: Last week, the main ABS terminals, including downstream factories in the home appliance industry, continued to have poor stocking enthusiasm. The main logic revolved around buying on dips and digesting inventory. As the holiday approaches, downstream enterprises have increased their holiday arrangements, and their procurement operations tend to be weak and require production to be maintained. At the same time, there has been no increase in volume for forward contracts. Midstream traders are attempting to sell at high prices, with average spot circulation and demand side support for a flat market.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS has been balanced, with increased support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant has seen a narrow decline in production, partially easing supply pressure. On the demand side, consumption is average, and merchant offers are boosted by upstream news, resulting in higher prices. The current market situation before the holiday is heavy, and trading may gradually weaken. It is expected that the ABS market may still shift towards a bearish trend.

The epoxy propane market remained stable this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 19th, the average price of epoxy propane for enterprises was 9137.50 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from Monday’s price.

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price for propylene on January 18th was 6825.75, a decrease of 0.62% compared to January 1st (6868.25). This week (1.15-1.19), the domestic propylene (Shandong) market prices have risen, with increased cost support.

Supply and demand side: At the beginning of the week, the supply was stable, and downstream inquiries and purchases were still active. The actual market transactions were average, and some factories slightly accumulated inventory in the middle of the week, but inventory pressure was controllable. Downstream observation and follow-up were the main focus. On January 19th, the mainstream quotation in the Shandong epoxy propane market was 9050-9150 yuan/ton.

The epoxy propane analyst from Business Society believes that the current cost and supply support still exist, and downstream follow-up is still possible. It is expected that the epoxy propane market may operate steadily, moderately, and strongly in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Product name: 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate

Latest price on January 17th: 2240 yuan/ton

On January 17th, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region remained temporarily stable. At present, the spot market for titanium concentrate is slightly tight, and the market quotation is relatively firm. The market situation for downstream titanium dioxide enterprises is still acceptable, but under cost pressure, they still mainly purchase according to demand, so they should be cautious and observe. As of now, the tax-free quotation for 38-42 grade titanium ore is around 1550-1580 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is around 2200-2280 yuan/ton, and the quotation for 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2350-2480 yuan/ton.

In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate remains strong and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has experienced a decline and then an increase since January. As of January 16th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7472 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% compared to the beginning of the month. The market fluctuations in this round are mainly influenced by cost factors.

In the crude oil market, the disturbance in the Middle East continues, and the situation is not clear. There is no sign of cooling in the short term, and oil prices still receive significant support. However, the US oil inventory has accumulated, and the market is once again concerned about economic weakness, which has significantly dragged down oil prices. Therefore, under the long short game, crude oil prices are mainly volatile, but there is still support for PTA costs. As of January 15th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $78.15 per barrel.

Since January, from the perspective of PTA supply side, the production capacity operating rate has remained stable with little change, and the industry operating rate has remained around 82%. With the restart of a 2 million ton PTA plant in South China on January 15th, products have been produced and the industry load has increased to around 84%. The pressure of sufficient supply of goods still exists. But next, the load of the 4.5 million ton PTA plant in South China will be adjusted from the original 80% to around 60%. The 3.6 million ton PTA unit of Yisheng New Materials Line 2 is scheduled for maintenance by the end of this month and is expected to last for one month. Negative load reduction and increased maintenance expectations, PTA stopped falling and rebounded. As of January 16th, the average market price in East China was 5794 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.29% from the beginning of the month.

Driven by a strong atmosphere in the raw material market, the downstream yarn market has improved. As of January 16th, the reference price for the pure polyester yarn market in Shandong Province was reported at 12475 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.40% from the beginning of the month. However, the order volume in spring and summer is not as high as in previous years, and as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, restocking is gradually coming to an end, making it difficult for prices to continue to rise. We maintain a wait-and-see attitude towards raw material procurement and mainly buy on demand.

Analysts from Business Society believe that warmer raw material costs have a greater impact on the price of polyester staple fibers. From the perspective of its own supply side, there is a maintenance plan for polyester staple fibers, but the supply of goods is still sufficient. Maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude downstream and not rush to purchase goods. Therefore, the price of polyester staple fibers may continue to rise in the short term, but the extent is limited by the drag of supply and demand.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has experienced fluctuations and declines, with most spot prices slightly decreasing overall. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of January 15th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14675 yuan/ton, with a 0% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has recently declined. The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased, and the cost side has remained stable with little movement. The caprolactam parking device is gradually resuming work and returning, and the market supply is gradually increasing. Downstream market conditions have declined, resulting in a decrease in purchase orders. The overall support for the cost side of PA6 has weakened.

In terms of supply:

Last week, there was a narrow adjustment in the load of PA6 production enterprises, with an average operating rate of nearly 79% in the range. The market supply has remained almost unchanged compared to the previous period, and there is ample supply of goods on the market. The inventory level is still not high, the pressure on suppliers is not significant, and there is still support for PA6 spot goods.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the weaving and spinning industries have seen a slight decline in load, but have generally remained stable, with average load positions of around 65% and 81%, respectively. The willingness of terminal enterprises to stock up is average, and their overall acceptance of high priced goods is not good. The operation leans towards buying on dips after market price drops, with trading concentrated near maintaining production demand, and overall support for the demand side of PA6 slices is average.

Future Market Forecast

Last week, the PA6 market fluctuated and fell narrowly. The price of caprolactam has slightly fallen, and the cost support for PA6 has weakened. The load of domestic polymerization plants remains basically unchanged, and the inventory position remains low. The current demand side operation is cautious, and market trading tends to be low-end. It is expected that the PA6 market will be weakly consolidated in the short term due to weak demand.