According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 15, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China was around 1056 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as that on December 8. Compared with that on June 15 (the reference price of phosphorus ore was 1043 yuan/ton), the price increased by 13 yuan/ton, or 1.21%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (12.08-12.15) the domestic phosphorus ore market was generally stable, the information on the market was relatively calm, the overall change in the supply and demand side was small, the supply side was still tight, and the demand side just needed to purchase. Near the end of the year, some mining areas in China will stop mining, and the orders for next year will mainly be pre received. The quotation will also continue to the beginning of next year. As of December 15, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate rock is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate rock is around 950-980 yuan/ton. The reference price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1150-1250 yuan/ton. There is also a gap between the specific price and the original ore specification, powder to lump ratio and other factors, and the details need to be negotiated.

Forecast and analysis of phosphate rock future market trend

The year 2022 is coming to an end. According to the phosphorus ore data engineer of the business community, in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market has not changed much, and the overall operation will continue to be dominated by high-level consolidation. More attention should be paid to the information changes on the supply and demand side for the specific trend.

The domestic fluorite price rose continuously. As of December 12, the average domestic fluorite price was 3387.5 yuan/ton, up 2.85% from 3093.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. At present, the price is at the highest point in the year.

Supply side: supply reduces the difficulty of spot fluorite

The operating rate of the domestic supply side has declined. On the one hand, the backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and on the other hand, the mineral survey work is still full of difficulties in terms of new mines. Mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient commencement of fluorite mines, shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials, and limited commencement of fluorite flotation. On the other hand, as the temperature drops, fluorite enterprises in the north gradually stop working, and the spot supply continues to decline. In addition, due to the serious epidemic in some areas, fluorite transportation is difficult. The supply of fluorite is very tight, and the supply of fluorite is difficult to obtain. The price of fluorite has repeatedly hit new highs in the year.

Demand side: the price of hydrofluoric acid increases with the increase of inquiry

The price trend of the downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose. As of December 12, the price of the hydrofluoric acid market was 12757.14 yuan/ton, 0.22% higher than the price of 12728.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The domestic market trend of hydrofluoric acid rose. Some enterprises reported that the supply of hydrofluoric acid was tight. The price rise of the hydrofluoric acid market formed a certain positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the price trend of the fluorite market rose.

The export volume of fluorite increased greatly

In the second half of the year, overseas mines in Canada and Mexico stopped production, overseas fluorine chemical giants were generally out of stock, and domestic acid grade fluorite received more and more inquiries from international buyers, which aggravated the shortage of domestic fluorite supply. In the first three quarters of 2022, China’s total export of fluorite with calcium fluoride content ≤ 97% is about 174500 tons, an increase of 60.12% over the same period last year; The total export volume of fluorite with calcium fluoride content>97% in China is about 172100 tons, up 397.32% over the same period last year. The export volume of fluorite has increased significantly, supporting the higher price.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry in the downstream, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, has been continuously developed in emerging fields. It is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite cathode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand of new energy, semiconductor and other fields driving, the outlook of the fluorochemical industry chain has been supported in the long run.

Future market forecast: the northern fluorite enterprises have entered the production suspension period. In addition, the supply of raw material fluorite ore is tight in the near future, the stock keeping sentiment of hydrofluoric acid enterprises is high, and the new energy, semiconductor and new material industries are developing rapidly, supporting the demand for fluorite in the long term. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, believes that there is still room for the price of fluorite market to rise.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of December 12, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 9100.00 yuan/ton, up 0.74% compared with last Tuesday (December 6).

Recently, the market price of epichlorohydrin has been adjusted steadily. From the perspective of supply and demand: in the near future, the capacity utilization rate of epichlorohydrin is low. The production enterprises mainly deliver orders, and there is no pressure on the supply side. However, the downstream market inquiries are limited, the purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and the market atmosphere is stalemate. The focus of epichlorohydrin negotiations is mainly stable, with narrow adjustments.

From the upstream and downstream perspective: recently, the price of raw propylene is weak, the raw glycerin is stable, and the cost support for epichlorohydrin is weakened. The reference price of the downstream epoxy resin was 15700.00 on December 9, a decrease of 4.07% compared with December 1 (16366.67), which was insufficient to support the epichlorohydrin market.

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, the current cost support is average. The downstream just needs small orders to follow up, and the market atmosphere is light. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will wait and see in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the supply side.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 11066 yuan/ton on December 12, and the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 11133 yuan/ton on December 7. The domestic caprolactam price fell 0.60% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market prices fell this week. The price of raw material pure benzene fell first and then rose, and the cost of caprolactam was generally supported. This week, some enterprises may have maintenance plans for the reduction of caprolactam units. The operating rate of downstream domestic PA6 polymerization enterprises decreased by a narrow margin, and the overall load level was about 60%. The demand for caprolactam is stable and purchased on demand. As of December 12, Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam offer was 11900 yuan/ton, and the liquid products were of superior quality, which were accepted in June.

Raw material pure benzene market, this week’s pure benzene trend range shocks. The fundamentals of pure benzene continue to be weak, and the downstream are mostly wait-and-see, with general purchasing intention; During the week, the crude oil fell continuously, and the cost faced a negative impact on the pure benzene market; Downstream styrene grew slightly, boosting the pure benzene market. At the beginning of the week, there was about 140000 tons of pure benzene warehouse in East China port, 10000 tons less than last week. The change in port inventory was small, and the supply pressure was eased. The price of Sinopec’s pure benzene remained stable at 6500 yuan/ton this week (down 50 yuan/ton to 6400 yuan/ton in Shandong and Hebei).

3、 Future market forecast

According to caprolactam analysts from the business community, the recent raw material pure benzene market has been in shock and consolidation operation, the on-site supply of caprolactam is stable, the downstream demand is still sluggish, and the transaction is average. It is expected that caprolactam market will be dominated by weak consolidation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus last Friday was 32750 yuan/ton, and this Friday was 33000 yuan/ton, with a range of 0.76%.

2、 Market analysis

Yellow phosphorus market prices rose this week. At present, the electricity restriction in Guizhou is intensifying, the yellow phosphorus output is declining, the market supply is also tight, and the price of yellow phosphorus is rising. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 33,000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 32500-34000 yuan/ton. Some manufacturers suspend quotation.

In terms of phosphate rock, the domestic phosphate rock market was generally stable this week (12.04-12.09,). Towards the end of the year, some mining enterprises had closed their mines and stopped mining. The overall supply of high-grade phosphate rock in the site was still tight. The prices of some mining enterprises in Guizhou were implemented until the end of the year, and the overall news of phosphate rock was relatively calm. As of December 9, the domestic phosphorus ore market price is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 950-980 yuan/ton. According to the phosphorus ore data engineer of the business community, in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to operate stably, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

In terms of coke, the market price of coke will rise in a round from December 2 to December 9, 2022. As of December 9, the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2482 yuan/ton, up 3.42%. This week, the second round of increase in the coke market has come to fruition. At present, there have been two rounds of increase, up 200-220 yuan/ton. At present, the coking market is in a good mood. The main production areas, such as Shanxi and Shandong, have started the third round of increase of 100-110 yuan/ton, and the scope of increase has gradually expanded. However, the downstream steel mills have a strong resistance to the third round of increase, which is difficult to implement, and coke steel has a heavy game mentality. In the future market, the business community thinks that the coke market is selling well at present, and the inventory in the factory is generally low, but the profits of the steel plant are low. It is expected that the coke price will be mainly stable in the short term. If the subsequent price of finished products continues to rise, the profits of the steel plant will be recovered, and there is room for the price to rise slightly.

Phosphoric acid, phosphoric acid, the price of phosphoric acid increased this week. The average price of phosphoric acid last Friday was 8841.67 yuan/ton, and this Friday was 9100 yuan/ton. The price increased within the week by 2.92%. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has risen, the cost support has been strengthened, the overall focus of the phosphoric acid market has moved up, and the enterprise’s offer has been adjusted to different extents. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will rise steadily in the short term.

3、 Future market forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative believe that yellow phosphorus prices will rise this week. The price of upstream phosphate rock was consolidated at a high level, the coke price rose, and the price of downstream phosphoric acid market rose, with good support from upstream and downstream. In addition, the situation of power rationing in Guizhou has intensified, and the yellow phosphorus market inventory has declined. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will continue to rise slightly in the short term.