According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price index of the rare earth market has continued to decline since April, and the domestic rare earth market has declined. On April 16, the rare earth index was 472 points, down 53.13% from the cycle’s highest point of 1007 (2022-02-24), and up 74.17% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

The prices of neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metal praseodymium neodymium oxide, and metal praseodymium neodymium in China have continued to decline. As of the 17th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 585000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.77% compared to the 1st; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 477500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.61% compared to the previous day’s price; The price of neodymium oxide was 495000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.81% compared to the previous day’s price; The price of neodymium metal was 660000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.69% compared to the previous day’s price trend; The price of metal praseodymium was 675000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.88% compared to the previous day’s price; The price of praseodymium oxide was 485000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.35% compared to the previous day’s price.

In early April, the listed prices of rare earths in the northern region remained generally stable, with prices higher than market expectations. The light rare earths market stabilized after the decline, but the continued lack of downstream demand after the Qingming Festival intensified the wait-and-see sentiment of buyers, and the light rare earths market declined again. The order situation in the domestic terminal market has not significantly improved. Overall, the order volume has decreased, and large manufacturers have a clear competitive advantage. Some small and medium-sized neodymium iron boron enterprises are facing operational difficulties. In addition, the operation of enterprises with export orders is not ideal, as raw material prices fluctuate sharply, allowing enterprises to more accurately judge market trends. The order situation of downstream magnetic material enterprises has remained sluggish, with magnetic material factories mainly consuming existing inventory. The actual transaction price of rare earths continues to shift downward, putting pressure on the rare earth market. The pessimism in the rare earth market is heavy. Most of the operators continue to be short of the short-term price of rare earth. Affected by multiple factors, the price of the domestic rare earth market continues to decline.

The price of heavy rare earth dysprosium series in China has decreased, with the price of dysprosium oxide reaching 1.875 million yuan/ton as of the 17th, a decrease of 9.64% compared to the 1st price; The price of dysprosium iron alloy was 1.86 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.82% compared to the previous day’s price; The price of dysprosium metal was 2.65 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.36% compared to the previous day’s price; The price of terbium series in China has mainly declined, with terbium oxide priced at 8.8 million yuan/ton and metallic terbium priced at 11.7 million yuan/ton. The price trend of heavy rare earth has declined, the production enterprises in Sichuan and other places have started to rise, the downstream procurement is very cold, and the oversupply has caused the market price to fall. In addition, there is an increase in rare earth mines from Southeast Asia, and the supply of rare earth is sufficient. The recovery of the rare earth terminal industry is slow, and transactions are scarce. The rare earth market prices continue to decline.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is still acceptable. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 674000 and 653000 units in March, with a month on month increase of 22% and 24.4%, and a year-on-year increase of 44.8% and 34.8%, respectively. The market share reached 26.6%. Although the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased, the purchase of downstream permanent magnets is very rare, and the price of light rare earth is not optimistic.

On March 24th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources issued a notice on the total control indicators for the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2023: the first batch of rare earth mining indicators in 2023 was 120000 tons, an increase of approximately 19% compared to last year, including 109057 tons of rock and mineral rare earth, an increase of 22% compared to last year; Ionic rare earth ore is 10943 tons, a decrease of 5% compared to last year. The mining output of rare earth has risen sharply, which has hit market confidence in some ways, and the price of rare earth has continued to decline.

Future Market Forecast: In the near future, downstream rare earth merchants have been purchasing lightly, and demand is unlikely to improve. In addition, there is sufficient upstream supply, sharp supply-demand contradiction, and poor transaction situation. In the short term, the decline in the rare earth market is difficult to change. In the long run, the new energy vehicles, wind power, and variable frequency air conditioning fields downstream of rare earth can continue to develop. The rapid development of emerging industries will greatly increase the demand for rare earth functional materials, The demand for rare earth industry will further increase.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of PVC carbide SG5 decreased this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic PVC price was 6066.67 yuan/ton, and on Friday, the average price was 5994 yuan/ton. The price fell by 1.2% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of PVC in the domestic spot market fell this week. This week, the spot market continued to be weak, and the futures market performed poorly. The overall market atmosphere is bearish, with insufficient confidence on the market and a decline in prices. Inquiries in the spot market are acceptable, and transactions can be made at multiple prices. As of now, the quotation range for PVC5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 5700-6200 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, on April 13th, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $82.16 per barrel, a decrease of $1.10 or 1.3%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $86.09 per barrel, a decrease of $1.24 or 1.4%. The OPEC report from oil producing countries states that there is a risk of a decline in summer oil demand, putting pressure on international oil prices.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by the Business Society, the stable average price of calcium carbide this week was 3083 yuan/ton. The upstream price of blue charcoal has slightly decreased, with insufficient cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, and the demand for calcium carbide has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that PVC spot prices will continue to decline this week. At present, the demand for PVC spot market is weak. The poor performance of the futures market affected the confidence of the spot market, and the market price center was downward. It is expected that the PVC market will be weak in the short term and closely monitor changes in the news.

As the weekend approaches, the domestic liquid ammonia market continues its decline at the beginning of the week. According to monitoring by Business News, on April 6th, the daily decline in the main production area of Shandong was 2.20%. The cumulative decline this week is 7.5%. The largest factories in Shandong province have cumulatively lowered prices by up to 300 yuan/ton this week. On the one hand, supply has increased, manufacturers’ shipments have slowed down, and inventory pressure has increased. Overlapping imported sources of goods has impacted the domestic market. On the other hand, the downstream product urea lacks support and maintains a weak trend. Subsequently, the contradiction between supply and demand further intensified. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3600-3750 yuan/ton.

Future forecast: The downstream urea market continues to be weak, while ammonia enterprises are still in the process of accumulating inventory. It is expected that the supply-demand contradiction will be difficult to alleviate in the near future. The price of feed liquid ammonia will still hover at a low level.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of imported potassium chloride in the domestic market fell slightly in March, and the price of potassium chloride fell from 3850.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3712.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.57%. On March 30th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 117.86, a decrease of 1.58 points from yesterday, a decrease of 32.50% from the highest point in the cycle of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 102.33% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have slightly decreased this month. At the end of the month, 62% of the port’s white potassium was around 3300-3400 yuan/ton, 60% of the port’s large red particles were around 350-3600 yuan/ton, and 62% of the border trade’s Russian white potassium was around 3100 yuan/ton, all of which showed a decrease. The potassium chloride port has a storage capacity of approximately 2.3 to 2.4 million tons.

From the demand side, the price of potassium carbonate market fell slightly this month, from 9120.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9020.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 1.10%, and the price at the end of the month fell 0.51% year-on-year. The factory price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this month, from 5940.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5725.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.62%, a year-on-year decrease of 18.79% compared to the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and downstream enthusiasm for purchasing potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to early April, the trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of salt lakes and Zangge potassium chloride are stable, with contracts being the main focus. Downstream agricultural demand weakens, industrial demand is average, and procurement is mainly on demand. The price of potassium chloride may fluctuate and fall in the future.

Domestic cobalt prices fluctuated and fell in March

According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of March 31, the cobalt price was 290700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.12% compared to the cobalt price of 303200 yuan/ton on March 1. The demand for the lithium battery industry chain is poor, and the prices of products in the lithium battery sector have all declined, with cobalt prices following the decline in March.

Poor demand in the lithium battery industry chain

The quarterly tracking report of International Data Corporation (IDC) shows that the smartphone market is still difficult to say optimistic in 2023. In 2023, the global smartphone market’s shipment volume will be less than 1.2 billion units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%; The expected shipment volume in the Chinese market is only 283 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. According to a report by market research firm TechInsights, global smartphone shipments (wholesale) and sales (retail) decreased by 11% and 5% year-on-year in February 2023, respectively. The global and Chinese smartphone markets have rebounded, but the consumer recovery in the smartphone market is less than expected, and the expected decline in smartphone shipments in 2023. According to the latest report by market research firm Canalys, the global wearable bracelet market shipped 50 million units in the fourth quarter of 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 18%. Due to factors such as Christmas, the fourth quarter is usually the peak season. Smart wearable devices, as a new luxury consumer, are the “second battlefield” of the mobile phone market. Smart watches have been steadily growing, but in the fourth quarter of the traditional peak season of 22 years, there was an abnormal double-digit decline. Sales of smart watches from major brands all experienced significant declines to varying degrees in the fourth quarter. Inflation and global economic uncertainty have weakened the recovery of consumer demand, The mobile phone market and wearable device market still face serious threats, with poor demand in the lithium battery industry chain and an expected decrease in demand in the cobalt market.

Completion of deposit delivery, no positive stimulus for cobalt market

Due to the impact of national storage, cobalt manufacturers limited their shipments in February, and cobalt prices rebounded and rose accordingly. With the completion of the collection and storage, the supply of cobalt in the market returned to normal in March. After the resumption of production in domestic refineries, the enthusiasm for production is still good, and new production capacity is gradually released. The oversupply situation may further expand, inventory pressure will increase, and support for cobalt price increases will weaken.

Lithium battery sector prices have all declined

From the price trend table of lithium battery industry chain products, it can be seen that the prices of lithium battery industry chain products fell significantly in March. The metal nickel related to lithium batteries has fallen, the price of lithium salts has plummeted, and the price of metal cobalt has also fallen. The sales of new energy vehicles did not meet expectations, and the demand for cobalt in the market was poor, with insufficient support for the rise in cobalt prices.

The import volume of cobalt raw materials increased year-on-year

From the bar chart of cobalt raw material import volume, it can be seen that the import volume of cobalt raw materials increased year-on-year in January and February 2023, and the import volume of cobalt raw materials steadily increased. The cobalt market has sufficient supply, and the downward pressure on cobalt prices will increase in the future.

Overview and outlook

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, believes that the positive stimulus has weakened, the demand for cobalt remains weak, the supply surplus in the cobalt market has intensified, and the support for future cobalt price increases has weakened. Expect cobalt prices to fluctuate slightly in the future.