1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, pure benzene fell in shock this month. On November 1, the price was 7200-7500 yuan/ton (the average price was 7384 yuan/ton); On November 28, the price was 6700-6850 yuan/ton (the average price was 6759 yuan/ton), down 8.46% this month and up 1.64% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

This month, the pure benzene market was hit by various negative effects, and the price fell due to shocks. 1、 Crude oil fell broadly and the cost was negative. 2、 The Asian American arbitrage window was closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China was at a high level, so the import volume of pure benzene in November was at a high level. Moreover, the overall supply of pure benzene market is sufficient. 3、 Downstream profitability is poor, styrene continues to decline, and the market is generally interested in buying pure benzene, which is a drag on the demand side.

The price of Sinopec’s pure benzene fell by 950 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton this month.

In terms of crude oil, although the news of Saudi Arabia’s production reduction in the month brought good news, the economic data of many countries was weak, and the Federal Reserve still had the possibility of significantly increasing interest rates. In addition, some parts of Asia were affected by public health events, which dragged down demand. Market participants weighed the prospects of energy supply and demand, and crude oil fell sharply this month. As of November 28, Brent fell by 11.64 dollars/barrel, or 12.27%; WTI fell by 9.29 dollars/barrel, or 10.74%.

In terms of the external market, the Asian pure benzene in the external market fell in shock this month. On November 28, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was 730 dollars/ton, down 113 dollars/ton month on month, or 13.4%; East China imported pure benzene at US $762 per ton, a month on month drop of US $108 per ton, or 12.4%.

Downstream

3、 Future market forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the price ceiling of Western crude oil exports to Russia has not yet been finalized. In addition, the epidemic prevention and control in some parts of Asia have affected demand. The Federal Reserve still expects to raise interest rates, and the future trend of oil prices is under pressure. However, OPEC’s adherence to the policy of reducing production may boost oil prices to some extent. It is expected that international oil prices will continue to play a long short game. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Fundamentals are hard to change in the short term. East China ports are expected to continue to accumulate reserves, with sufficient on-site supply. Pure benzene will continue its weak trend in the short term, and we will wait to see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, pure benzene and downstream unit dynamics, demand side changes, etc. on the price of pure benzene.

Recent domestic isobutyraldehyde price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the market price of isobutyraldehyde dropped in November, from 6600.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6233.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 5.56%.

On November 29, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 31.64, unchanged from yesterday, down 70.03% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 5.05% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: the cycle refers to 2021-09-01 to now). From the weekly chart of isobutyraldehyde, isobutyraldehyde fell overall in October, with the largest weekly drop of 3.47%.

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell slightly in November, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream demand is general

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of isobutyraldehyde, the upstream propylene market of isobutyraldehyde rose slightly in November. The price of propylene rose from 7036.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7650.60 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 8.73%. Compared with the same period last year, it rose 0.39% year on year. The increase of upstream cost support has a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

The market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream fell sharply in November. The price of neopentyl glycol dropped from 10066.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8966.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 10.93%. Downstream market fell sharply, and downstream manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm for isobutyraldehyde weakened.

The market fell slightly after shocks

In the first ten days of December, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may slightly fluctuate and decline. Although the upstream propylene price rose slightly, the cost support was good. However, the market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream fell sharply, and the downstream factories were not enthusiastic about purchasing isobutyraldehyde. The product trend fell due to the contradiction between supply and demand. The isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business community believe that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may suffer a slight shock and decline in the short term under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, pure benzene rebounded slightly after falling this week. On November 25, the price of pure benzene was 6700-6950 yuan/ton (the average price was 6784 yuan/ton), and on Friday (December 2), the price of pure benzene was 6450-6600 yuan/ton (the average price was 6559 yuan/ton), down 3.32% from last week and up 3.95% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

The fundamentals of pure benzene are poor, and the supply side continues to increase due to the accumulation of stocks in ports in East China; Downstream market is generally weak, and just need to buy. The trend of superimposed crude oil is weak, and the cost support is poor. The price of pure benzene fell due to multiple negative pressures. After the fall of pure benzene, the downstream buying recovered, and prices rebounded slightly in the coming weekend. At the beginning of the week, there were about 141000 tons of pure benzene in East China Port, an increase of about 22000 tons compared with last week.

This week, the price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced by 300 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton (down to 6450 yuan/ton in Shandong and Hebei).

In terms of external market, the price of pure benzene in Asia fell this week. On Thursday (December 1), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was 758 US dollars/ton, down 23 US dollars/ton year-on-year, or 2.94%; The reference import price in East China was 789 US dollars/ton, down 23 US dollars/ton year on year, or 2.83%.

In terms of crude oil, concerns about the risk of global economic recession remain, and oil demand is under pressure. However, the OPEC+production reduction rumors and the news that the US crude oil inventory fell more than expected brought good news, and the oil price rebounded after falling in the week. As of December 2, Brent price this week rose by 1.94 dollars/barrel, or 2.32%, compared with last week; WTI rose by 3.7 dollars/barrel, or 4.85%.

Downstream

3、 Future market forecast

In terms of crude oil, major oil producing countries decided to maintain the established production reduction target, and the oil price was somewhat suppressed. Under the background of the risk of global economic recession, energy demand is depressed; However, the supply side is still tight, and the short-term market will maintain a volatile pattern. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The trend of crude oil is volatile, the supply side of pure benzene is sufficient, and the overall downstream demand is poor. It is expected that the short-term weakness of pure benzene will be consolidated. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external price trend, pure benzene port inventory dynamics and pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose many times this week, and the market trading atmosphere improved. The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7436 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 77100 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.68%, up 10.08% from 30 days ago.

As of December 2, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/December 2

Shandong region./7650-7700 yuan/ton

Northeast China/7300-7400 yuan/ton

East China./7250-7300 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and review

According to the monitoring of the business community, the propylene market performed well this week, and the price rose to a stage high. Due to the low price in the early stage, the effect of enterprise destocking was obvious, and the restart time of PDH in the market was delayed, leading to the tight supply of propylene in Shandong. With the steady follow-up of demand, the price of propylene was raised many times. As of this Friday, the price of propylene in Shandong has risen to a high level. With the inflow of low-end goods from the surrounding areas, the resistance to rising has increased. The offer of some enterprises has been slightly increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the mainstream offer of Shandong has been 7650-7700 yuan/ton.

Upstream: On the news side, crude oil prices stopped rising this week. As of the closing of December 1, WTI rose 0.67 to 81.22 dollars/barrel in January 2023, up 0.8%; In February 2023, Brent fell 0.09 to US $86.88 per barrel, down 0.1%. Crude oil is still expected to rise next week, supported by positive cost.

Downstream: The market of some downstream products declined mainly, but the commencement of some products was fair, and the demand for propylene was stable. Due to the rise of propylene price, the profit space of the polypropylene industry has shrunk, some enterprises have plans to reduce the burden, and other downstream derivatives have relatively stable demand.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the propylene analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative, the cost support is good, but the price rise inhibits downstream demand. Under the long short game, it is expected that the probability of Shandong propylene market declining next week will increase.

In November, domestic cobalt prices fell in shock

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 30, the average domestic cobalt price was 334600 yuan/ton, down 2.36% from 342700 yuan/ton on November 1; Compared with the cobalt price of 348300 yuan/ton on October 30, it decreased by 3.93%. In November, the domestic cobalt price fell in N-type weakness.

The mobile phone market is not prosperous in the Christmas season

South Korean mobile phone giant Samsung cut its smartphone production in Vietnam for the second time this year, which is in sharp contrast to the traditional sales peak season before Christmas. During the period from October to November, Samsung plans to produce only 34 million smartphones. For the sales season before Christmas, there has been a sharp drop compared with the same period of previous years. Samsung also lowered its annual total smartphone production target from 334 million to 270 million to 280 million, and its shipment target from 300 million to 260 million. The annual shipment in 2022 is expected to be 13.3% lower than the mid year estimate. Samsung’s smartphone shipments decreased, mainly due to the compression of the European and American consumer markets. Mobile phone market consumption is weak, Christmas consumption season is not strong, and cobalt market demand is weak.

Ternary battery output and installed capacity

It can be seen from the chart of installed capacity and output of ternary batteries that in October, the output of ternary batteries in China was 24.2 GWh, accounting for 38.6% of the total output, with a year-on-year growth of 163.5% and a month on month decline of 0.2%; The loading of ternary batteries was 10.8GWh, accounting for 35.4% of the total, with a year-on-year increase of 55.2% and a month on month decrease of 3.5%; In October, the installed capacity and output of ternary batteries both declined month on month, the proportion of ternary batteries shrank, and the demand for cobalt market weakened.

The import of cobalt raw materials decreased sharply month on month

It can be seen from the data map released by the General Administration of Customs that in October 2022, China’s cobalt raw material imports totaled 7600 tons of metal tons, a sharp decrease of 28% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 41%. From January to October 2022, China’s cobalt raw material imports totaled 84900 tons of metal, up year-on-year. The import of cobalt raw materials increased year on year, and the supply of cobalt was sufficient. In October, the import volume of cobalt raw materials fell sharply on a month on month basis, the supply of cobalt market decreased on a month on month basis, and the price of cobalt was driven up.

Overview and prospect

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst from the business community, believes that in terms of demand, the consumption of mobile phone market is weak, the demand for ternary batteries is shrinking, and the demand for national storage information in the middle of the year is rising in the short term; In terms of supply, the import volume of cobalt raw materials rose, and the supply of cobalt market was sufficient. In the future, the supply of cobalt market is sufficient and the demand is weak. It is expected that the weak shocks in the future cobalt market will stabilize.