In November, the domestic ethanol market declined with little fluctuation. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the price at the beginning of the month was 6762 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 6700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.92%. The maximum amplitude in the month was 1.11%, and the price fell 4.63% year on year.

At the beginning of this month, the domestic ethanol market price range was reorganized, and short-term prices were hardly boosted, with a small downward trend as the main trend. The price of raw corn fluctuated, the starting load of downstream chemical acetate was stable, and the demand decreased. Stable load arrangement on the plant surface, and weak price operation on the ethanol market.

In the middle of this month, the domestic ethanol market continued to trade in a weak way. The supply side was relatively abundant in the short term, and the operating capacity of production plants was higher than that in October. However, the demand side was limited in the short term, which continued to be weak, and it was difficult to see significant benefits in the short term. The transaction price of the domestic ethanol market continued to operate in a weak way.

In the last ten days of this month, the domestic ethanol market continued to be dominated by weak transactions, the market atmosphere in various regions continued to be cold, and some factories mainly drove up prices, but the actual transactions were average. In some regions, the unit operating load was high, the demand side remained low, and the domestic ethanol market continued to operate at a low level in the short term.

At the end of the month, there was a negative phenomenon in units in various regions, the supply side increased in a short term, and the domestic ethanol market was weak.

Strong cost support and stable demand operation. The ethanol analyst of the business association predicted that the short-term domestic ethanol market would be mainly settled by shocks.

1、 Price data

As of November 27, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha mainstream was 7874.75 yuan/ton, down 3.02% from 8119.75 yuan/ton on November 21. The actual transaction price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha was about 7600-8000 yuan/ton.

As of November 27, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run naphtha mainstream was 7554.00 yuan/ton, down 2.33% from 7734.00 yuan/ton on November 21. The actual transaction price of local straight run naphtha was about 7500-7700 yuan/ton.

On November 27, the naphtha commodity index was 97.19, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.10% from the peak of 121.64 (2022-03-10) in the cycle, and up 130.09% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fell this week, and there was no obvious advantage in terminal ethylene and reforming. It was mainly purchased on demand, logistics was blocked in many places across the country, refineries reduced prices and shipped, and the market was mainly wait-and-see.

Upstream: International crude oil prices fell in shock. The inventory data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday was negative, and the inventory of refined oil increased more than expected. It was also reported that the Group of Seven considered that the price limit of Russian seaborne oil was higher than the price ceiling of the current market level, and the supply tightening concerns eased. Western countries have not reached an agreement on the upper limit of Russian oil price; The oil price continues to be under pressure due to overlapping demand concerns.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of toluene fell this week. On November 27, it was 7350 yuan/ton, and on November 21, it was 7440 yuan/ton, down 1.21%. The price of mixed xylene fell this week. On November 27, the price was 7840 yuan/ton, and on November 21, the price was 8100 yuan/ton, down 3.21% from last week. In terms of PX market, the price trend of this week was temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 8600 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the price of 8600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future market forecast

The energy analysts of the business agency believe that the international crude oil price fell in shock this week, and the cost support of the naphtha market is limited; There is no obvious advantage in terminal ethylene and reforming, and the procurement is mainly on demand. Logistics in many places across the country is blocked, refineries are active in shipping, and businesses are in a strong wait-and-see mood, and transactions are cautious. It is expected that the local refining naphtha will continue to decline in the near future.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 25, 2022, the domestic butanone market price reference is 8866 yuan/ton, which is 200 yuan/ton higher than the price on November 1 (8666 yuan/ton), or 2.31% higher.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since November (11.1-11.25), the domestic butanone market has risen first, then fell, and the overall market has risen slightly. The market trend of butanone can be divided into two parts: the first ten days and the last ten days:

In the first ten days of November, the domestic butanone market was dominated by the overall rise. Since the beginning of the month, the high price of C4 after the raw material ether gave support to the cost of butanone, and the butanone market price was steadily moving upward. On November 17, the butanone market price was 8966 yuan/ton, up 3.46% in the first ten days.

In late November, the rise of domestic butanone market failed to continue. Under the supply and demand game, the market was temporarily stuck at a high level. However, the downstream demand was generally large, and under the control of demand, near the end of the month, the butanone market began to decline. On November 25, the butanone market price referred to 8866 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.12% on the fifth day.

Future market analysis of butanone

At present, the trading atmosphere of butanone on the market is flat, and the downstream demand is still weak as a whole. Butanone mathematicians from the business community believe that in the short term, the domestic butanone market is dragged down by demand or has the risk of further small decline. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market fell slightly this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus last Thursday was 31333.33 yuan/ton, and the average price this Thursday was 31125 yuan/ton. The price fell within the week by 0.66%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market dropped slightly this week. At present, the market is in a stalemate, yellow phosphorus prices are rising, and the market transaction prices are beginning to decline. Downstream market is sluggish, purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and goods are taken cautiously. The transportation of yellow phosphorus in some regions of Yunnan is not very smooth, and many manufacturers do not make external quotations. Up to now, the quotation of yellow phosphorus is about 30000-32500 yuan/ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, the overall phosphate rock market was stable and consolidated this week. According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 24, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 1056 yuan/ton. Some domestic mining enterprises and mines have stopped production, and it is difficult to improve the tense situation of domestic phosphorus ore supply in the short term. The phosphorus ore data engineer of the business community believes that the overall domestic phosphorus ore market is expected to operate mainly in a stable and small way in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

In terms of coke, the price of coke market was temporarily stable this week. According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 24, the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2300 yuan/ton. In general, coke steel has a heavy game mentality, coke enterprises have a good mentality, and the market sentiment has warmed up to a certain extent. It is expected that the coke price will temporarily operate stably in the short term, and the future market will focus on the sales of finished products and the price trend of raw coke coal.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the price of phosphoric acid market rose in a volatile manner this week. On November 17, the average price of phosphoric acid was 8416.67 yuan/ton, and on November 24, the average price was 8487.50 yuan/ton. The price was raised within the week by 0.84%. At present, the phosphoric acid market fluctuates slightly. Downstream procurement was cautious, and the market trading performance was average. It is expected that in the short term, the phosphoric acid market will be more wait-and-see, with major stability and small dynamic operation.

3、 Future market forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative believe that the current rise in yellow phosphorus prices has cooled, and the market transaction price has begun to decline. On the whole, the upstream phosphate rock price is temporarily stable, and the coke market price is temporarily stable. Downstream customers are cautious in receiving orders, and purchase at a lower price. The overall demand is not good, and the turnover of new orders is limited. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will be dominated by weak and stable operation in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of coking coal was consolidated this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2383.33 yuan/ton. On November 21, the average market price was 2383.33 yuan/ton, down 22.49% from the same period last year. On November 20, the energy index was 1139, unchanged from yesterday, down 27.03% from the highest point of 1561 (2021-10-21) in the cycle, and up 122.90% from the lowest point of 511 on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

In terms of production area, the price of coking coal runs at a high price, and the price of some kinds of coal rises slightly. The mentality of the mining area has improved. Downstream coke was temporarily stable after falling this week, and coke enterprises’ inventory generally declined. At present, the on-site inventory is generally low, coke enterprises’ mentality is stronger, and the profits of steel plants are still poor this week. However, near winter, the steel plants have certain winter storage plans, and their purchasing enthusiasm has been improved.

According to the coking coal analysts of the business community, the price of coking coal is operating at a high price, and the demand for coking coal in the downstream coke sector has increased recently. The steel plant has a certain winter storage plan, and the purchasing enthusiasm has improved. The coke enterprises have a good mentality, and the market sentiment has risen to a certain extent. In general, the price of coking coal is operating at a high price, and the downstream market demand is specific.