1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market of imported potassium chloride this week is temporarily stable, with the price of 3850.00 yuan/ton. The arrival price of domestic salt lake potassium chloride this week is 3500-3600 yuan/ton. About 2.5 million tons are stored in the port. The commodity index of potassium chloride (import) on March 12 was 101.32, which was the same as yesterday, down 30.00% from the highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21) in the cycle, and up 4.77% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotations of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers rose and fell each other this week The port’s 62% white potassium self-raised price is about 3500-3600 yuan/ton. The self-raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is about 3700-3800 yuan/ton. 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade is about 3400-3500 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex-factory price of potassium carbonate fell slightly this week, from 9120.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9100.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.22%, up 5.81% year-on-year. The ex-factory price of potassium nitrate was temporarily stable this week, at 5940.00 yuan/ton, down 9.31% from the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride declined slightly, and the demand of downstream customers for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and late March, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fall in a narrow range, mainly in consolidation. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangger were low. The downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened, and the purchase was mainly in demand. International potash fertilizer prices continued to fall. Analysts of KCl from the Business Agency believe that the import price of domestic KCl may fall slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell sharply in the first ten days of March. The average price of domestic PVC was 6243.33 yuan/ton on March 1 and 6225 yuan/ton on March 10, with a price drop of 0.29%.

2、 Market analysis

In the first ten days of March, the domestic spot market of PVC fell sharply. At present, the trading atmosphere of the spot market is general, and the futures market is weak, which affects the confidence of the spot market. The delivery is mainly based on the spot price, and the situation of traders’ taking goods is general. Downstream enterprises are more wait-and-see, cautious about actual orders, and mainly purchase on demand. Up to now, the domestic price range of PVC5 carbide is mostly around 5900-6380 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures fell for the third consecutive trading day on March 9. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was US $75.72/barrel, down US $0.94 or 1.2%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $81.59/barrel, down US $1.07 or 1.3%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the data monitored by the Business Society, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region was temporarily stable this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China was 3483.33 yuan/ton. The price of upstream blue charcoal fell slightly, the cost support was insufficient, the downstream PVC market was general, and the demand for calcium carbide was tepid.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the PVC analyst of the Business Agency, the spot price of PVC fell in the first ten days of March. At present, the demand of PVC spot market is general, and downstream enterprises have low purchasing enthusiasm. They are cautious about actual orders, and mainly purchase on demand. It is expected that in the short term, the PVC market will still fluctuate slightly, and close attention will be paid to the changes in the news.

According to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8825.00 yuan/ton as of March 7, down 1.12% from the price on March 1.

The market of epichlorohydrin has been weak since March. Recently, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and fell, the price of raw material glycerin was stable, the cost support was limited, the small downstream orders just needed replenishment, the factory shipment was under pressure, and the lack of demand support dragged down the focus of epichlorohydrin market negotiations.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the recent domestic propylene (Shandong) market volatility fell. On March 6, the reference price of propylene was 7346.60, down 2.34% from March 1 (7522.60).

For downstream epoxy resin, the reference price of epoxy resin was 15100.00 on March 6, which was the same as that on March 1.

According to the epichlorohydrin analyst of the business agency, the current cost pressure still exists, but the demand is low, and the market transaction atmosphere is light. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may become stale and weak in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to the market news guidance.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

It can be seen from the above figure that the ex-factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of isooctanol mainstream manufacturers in Shandong increased from 9066.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9300.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 2.57%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 26.77% year-on-year. The isooctanol commodity index on March 5 was 68.91, which was the same as yesterday, down 49.88% from the highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle, and up 96.05% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Upstream support increases, and downstream demand is better

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex-factory quotation of Shandong isooctanol mainstream manufacturers rose slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7490.60 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7516.60 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.35%, down 16.64% year-on-year. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP rose slightly this week. The price of DOP rose from 9960.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9970.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.10%, down 19.03% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, and downstream customers were active in purchasing isooctanol.

Future prospects

In the middle and first ten days of March, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province was mainly subject to small fluctuations. The upstream propylene market fell slightly over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. Downstream DOP market rose slightly, and downstream demand was better. The isooctanol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fall mainly due to small fluctuations under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic ethanol market was sorted and operated. On February 27 and March 3, the domestic ethanol price kept rising from 7192 yuan/ton to 7200 yuan/ton, up 0.10% in the cycle, down 0.59% month-on-month, and up 3.60% year on year. The quotation of production enterprises is mainly in line with the market, but the unit operating rate is stable, the inventory is constantly overstocked, the demand is weak, and the ethanol market is expected to be empty.

On the cost side, the business cooperative monitored the low price of domestic corn market. On March 3, the benchmark price of the business cooperative corn was 2808.57 yuan/ton. With the comprehensive recovery of corn trade in the production area, the market volume of corn has recovered again. After the corn stock of the port and downstream deep processing enterprises has been replenished to some extent, the purchase price of corn has been continuously reduced. In the recent months, the domestic corn market price has been operating weakly as a whole.

On the supply side, the starting load of the overall ethanol market this week was stable, the main plant unit was operating at high load, the on-site supply was increased, and some units in northern Jiangsu were operating at low load, the overall on-site supply was stable, the Guannan unit was shut down, the Jinchanglin unit was shut down, and the Changxing and Meibohui units in southern Jiangsu were started. The negative impact of ethanol supply side increased.

On the demand side, the chemical industry just needs to purchase, and the demand for Baijiu has increased slightly. The short-term demand for ethanol is slightly positive.

According to the aftermarket forecast, the cost support is insufficient, and the downstream demand is mainly rigid. Ethanol analysts of the Business News Agency predicted that the domestic ethanol market was weak in the short term.