According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 24th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China is 6025.00 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of white carbon black has been stable, with the mainstream price of around 6000 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiations is stable, with downstream demand procurement being the main focus, and the enthusiasm for stocking is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, but the number of new orders is limited.

Chemical Index: On August 23, the chemical index stood at 896 points, an increase of 1 point compared to yesterday, a decrease of 36.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 49.83% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that the stable operation of the white carbon black market is the main focus in the short term.

In July, the export volume of epoxy resin remained at a high level, while the import volume hit a historic low. Currently, there is sufficient supply of epoxy resin in China, and there is still a large amount of production capacity to be put into operation in the second half of the year. It is expected that exports will increase significantly, and the situation of continuous import reduction will continue.

The import volume in July 2023 was 9445 tons, a significant decrease of 46.7% year-on-year and 36.1% month on month, with an average import price of $4354 per ton.

The export volume in July 2023 was 12826 tons, an increase of 0.02% year-on-year. A month on month decrease of 10.2%, with an average export price of 2471 US dollars per ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic ethanol market continued to rise. From August 15th to 22nd, the domestic ethanol price increased from 6750 yuan/ton to 6812 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.93%, a month on month increase of 1.87%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.68%. There are slight regional differences in the domestic ethanol market, with high raw material prices and limited support from ethanol in stock. As a result, the domestic ethanol market prices remain firm.

In terms of cost, as we entered mid August, the impact of rainfall caused by the typhoon in the production and sales areas gradually eased. The arrival volume of corn in ports and deep processing areas continued to increase. After effectively replenishing the corn inventory of ports and deep processing enterprises, the corn purchase price was lowered, causing high volatility in the domestic corn market. On August 22nd, the benchmark price of corn in Shangshang Society was 2798.57 yuan/ton. There are temporary positive factors in the cost of ethanol.

On the supply side, the Fukang device was shut down and the Tianyu device resumed in mid August; Zhaodong Food resumed around August 15th, but production was limited. Longhe and Romet have plans to start production after the raw materials arrive at the port in the middle of the year. Henan Houyuan Device Storage and Maintenance Plan. The ethanol supply is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream chemical companies are just in need of procurement, and large ethyl acetate factories are gradually returning to full capacity. At the end of August, some factories in East China have maintenance plans. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, cost and supply support are high, and demand is expected to break through. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market price has slightly increased this week, with urea prices rising from 2577.14 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2640.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.44%. Weekend prices increased by 12.24% year-on-year. On August 20th, the urea commodity index was 122.79, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 19.39% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 120.85% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Good cost support, weakened downstream demand, and tight urea supply

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly increased this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has slightly increased this week: the price of liquefied natural gas has significantly increased, from 3652.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3772.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.29%, and the weekend price has decreased by 43.53% year-on-year; The price of anthracite has stabilized at a low level, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) at 1130 yuan/ton this week; The price of liquid ammonia has slightly increased, rising from 3366.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3400.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.99%. The weekend price has decreased by 9.33% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices have slightly increased, providing good support for urea prices. This week, the downstream melamine price of urea has stabilized at a low level, with a price of 7075.00 yuan/ton.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand has weakened, while industrial demand is average. The use of fertilizers in summer has basically ended, with sporadic fertilizer supplementation being the main focus, and agricultural demand has weakened. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is normal. Board and melamine enterprises are operating at a low level, with a focus on purchasing on demand. From a supply perspective, the daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating a tight supply.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late August, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has slightly increased, and urea costs are well supported. But downstream agricultural demand has basically ended, and industrial demand is average. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, and the supply is tight. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of 1 # tin ingot in East China this week (8.11-8.18) was 222710 yuan/ton on August 11th, and 213350 yuan/ton on August 18th, a weekly decrease of 4.2%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, the price has dropped by 11.35% per month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has been rising for nine consecutive weeks and declining for four consecutive weeks in late July.

In terms of the futures market, the overall decline in Shanghai and tin was seen this week. From a macro perspective, it is expected that the number of US unemployment insurance applications decreased last week, economic data is expected to improve, and the US dollar index slightly rose. The non-ferrous metal market is under pressure, while Shanghai and tin are down. At present, the supply and demand are still relatively loose. Although some mines in Myanmar have ceased production, they can still engage in the mining and processing of existing mines, and there are still some tin mines that can be imported in the short term. In addition, the recent increase in production of Yinman Mining has limited the impact of mining end disturbances on the recent market. As the number of imported tin ingots increases and LME inventory continues to climb to 6090 tons, the overall supply of tin ingots is loose. In terms of demand, the terminal consumption of electronic products has always been tepid, while other industries such as tinplate and semiconductor have remained weak in recent times, lacking actual demand support, and the tin market is operating weakly. Overall, the supply and demand in the tin market are still weak, and the market sentiment is on the wait-and-see side. It is expected that the future market will remain weak and volatile without any external news.

On August 18th, the base metal index was 1196 points, an increase of 11 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.99% from the highest point of 1616 points in the cycle (2022-03-09), and an increase of 86.29% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were a total of 17 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month on the commodity price rise and fall list in the 33rd week of 2023 (8.14-8.18), with antimony (2.61%), nickel (1.28%), and lead (1.21%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are three products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with cobalt (-2.30%), tin (-1.84%), and zinc (-1.22%) ranking among the top three products. This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.42%.