1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell sharply in the first ten days of March. The average price of domestic PVC was 6243.33 yuan/ton on March 1 and 6225 yuan/ton on March 10, with a price drop of 0.29%.

2、 Market analysis

In the first ten days of March, the domestic spot market of PVC fell sharply. At present, the trading atmosphere of the spot market is general, and the futures market is weak, which affects the confidence of the spot market. The delivery is mainly based on the spot price, and the situation of traders’ taking goods is general. Downstream enterprises are more wait-and-see, cautious about actual orders, and mainly purchase on demand. Up to now, the domestic price range of PVC5 carbide is mostly around 5900-6380 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures fell for the third consecutive trading day on March 9. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was US $75.72/barrel, down US $0.94 or 1.2%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $81.59/barrel, down US $1.07 or 1.3%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the data monitored by the Business Society, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region was temporarily stable this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China was 3483.33 yuan/ton. The price of upstream blue charcoal fell slightly, the cost support was insufficient, the downstream PVC market was general, and the demand for calcium carbide was tepid.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the PVC analyst of the Business Agency, the spot price of PVC fell in the first ten days of March. At present, the demand of PVC spot market is general, and downstream enterprises have low purchasing enthusiasm. They are cautious about actual orders, and mainly purchase on demand. It is expected that in the short term, the PVC market will still fluctuate slightly, and close attention will be paid to the changes in the news.

According to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8825.00 yuan/ton as of March 7, down 1.12% from the price on March 1.

The market of epichlorohydrin has been weak since March. Recently, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and fell, the price of raw material glycerin was stable, the cost support was limited, the small downstream orders just needed replenishment, the factory shipment was under pressure, and the lack of demand support dragged down the focus of epichlorohydrin market negotiations.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the recent domestic propylene (Shandong) market volatility fell. On March 6, the reference price of propylene was 7346.60, down 2.34% from March 1 (7522.60).

For downstream epoxy resin, the reference price of epoxy resin was 15100.00 on March 6, which was the same as that on March 1.

According to the epichlorohydrin analyst of the business agency, the current cost pressure still exists, but the demand is low, and the market transaction atmosphere is light. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may become stale and weak in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to the market news guidance.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

It can be seen from the above figure that the ex-factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of isooctanol mainstream manufacturers in Shandong increased from 9066.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9300.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 2.57%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 26.77% year-on-year. The isooctanol commodity index on March 5 was 68.91, which was the same as yesterday, down 49.88% from the highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle, and up 96.05% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Upstream support increases, and downstream demand is better

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex-factory quotation of Shandong isooctanol mainstream manufacturers rose slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7490.60 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7516.60 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.35%, down 16.64% year-on-year. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP rose slightly this week. The price of DOP rose from 9960.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9970.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.10%, down 19.03% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, and downstream customers were active in purchasing isooctanol.

Future prospects

In the middle and first ten days of March, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province was mainly subject to small fluctuations. The upstream propylene market fell slightly over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. Downstream DOP market rose slightly, and downstream demand was better. The isooctanol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fall mainly due to small fluctuations under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic ethanol market was sorted and operated. On February 27 and March 3, the domestic ethanol price kept rising from 7192 yuan/ton to 7200 yuan/ton, up 0.10% in the cycle, down 0.59% month-on-month, and up 3.60% year on year. The quotation of production enterprises is mainly in line with the market, but the unit operating rate is stable, the inventory is constantly overstocked, the demand is weak, and the ethanol market is expected to be empty.

On the cost side, the business cooperative monitored the low price of domestic corn market. On March 3, the benchmark price of the business cooperative corn was 2808.57 yuan/ton. With the comprehensive recovery of corn trade in the production area, the market volume of corn has recovered again. After the corn stock of the port and downstream deep processing enterprises has been replenished to some extent, the purchase price of corn has been continuously reduced. In the recent months, the domestic corn market price has been operating weakly as a whole.

On the supply side, the starting load of the overall ethanol market this week was stable, the main plant unit was operating at high load, the on-site supply was increased, and some units in northern Jiangsu were operating at low load, the overall on-site supply was stable, the Guannan unit was shut down, the Jinchanglin unit was shut down, and the Changxing and Meibohui units in southern Jiangsu were started. The negative impact of ethanol supply side increased.

On the demand side, the chemical industry just needs to purchase, and the demand for Baijiu has increased slightly. The short-term demand for ethanol is slightly positive.

According to the aftermarket forecast, the cost support is insufficient, and the downstream demand is mainly rigid. Ethanol analysts of the Business News Agency predicted that the domestic ethanol market was weak in the short term.

The price of o-xylene rose on March 1

According to the price trend chart of ortho-xylene of the business community, the price of ortho-xylene was 8300 yuan/ton as of March 1, up 3.75% from 8000 yuan/ton on the previous trading day. The cost of raw materials supported the recovery of demand, and the domestic ortho-xylene market rose on March 1.

Analysis points

The price of mixed xylene, the raw material of o-benzene, fluctuated and increased, and the cost was greatly supported; The price of neighboring benzene in the outer market has risen, and the price difference between the inner and outer markets of neighboring benzene is large, so the price of neighboring benzene has a strong supporting force; The downstream market of phthalic anhydride has warmed up, which has some support for o-benzene, but the rise of phthalic anhydride is less than that of o-benzene, and the support for o-benzene rise is limited.

Future prospects

With sufficient cost support and limited demand support, the price of ortho-xylene is expected to stabilize strongly in the future.