According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was temporarily stable this week. As of the end of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 3930 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 3930 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 16.38% year on year.

This week, the price trend of the domestic ammonium nitrate market was temporarily stable. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers operated stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site was normal. The goods on the site were generally shipped. The manufacturer’s inventory was not high. The price of liquid ammonia at the upstream of the terminal rose. In addition, the price of nitric acid rose slightly. The price of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream purchase is based on demand. Recently, the demand for downstream nitro compound fertilizer is normal, but the sales of domestic downstream civil explosive industry has come to an end. The demand for ammonium nitrate has decreased, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not started to work. Recently, the price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 4800-5200 yuan/ton, that in Shandong is 3800-3900 yuan/ton, and that in Hebei is 3900-4000 yuan/ton.

The price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China was temporarily stable this week. As of the weekend, the average price of nitric acid in China was 2333.33yuan/ton, unchanged from the price at the beginning of the week. Shaanxi Xinghua offers 2150 yuan/ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 2500 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been operating stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid in the market is normal, and the delivery of goods in the market is normal. Recently, the price of nitric acid in the market remains stable, the price of raw nitric acid supports the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable.

The price of upstream liquid ammonia rose this week. As of October 7, the price of liquid ammonia was 4330 yuan/ton, 5.27% higher than the price of 4113.33 yuan/ton on October 31. Domestic dealers generally reported high, with an increase of more than 100-200 yuan/ton. At present, the supply pressure in this region is not large, the inventory pressure of large factories is relieved, the self consumption is increased, and the export volume is reduced. Since this week, the large factories in Shandong have generally raised the price twice, with a range of more than 100 yuan. Downstream demand is mainly supported by demand. After the urea market rebounded at the end of last month, the supply and demand in this region are basically balanced, and the mainstream price in the market is 4250-4350 yuan/ton. The rising price of upstream liquid ammonia has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry may gradually start, the price of liquid ammonia market will rise, the price trend of nitric acid will be temporarily stable, and the spot supply of ammonium nitrate will be normal. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may rise slightly in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the price of mixed xylene fell by a narrow margin this week, and the price in South China was temporarily stable. The price was 8230 yuan/ton on October 28; On Friday (November 4), the price was 8060 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from last week and up 22.68% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

The demand for downstream chemical products remains weak, the demand for terminal gasoline becomes weak, the demand side of mixed xylene performs poorly, and the price drops weakly. However, the supply of mixed xylene continued to be tight, and the enterprise’s inventory was low, supporting the price. The decline was limited within the week.

In terms of external market, Asian mixed xylene in external market rebounded after falling this week. On Thursday (November 3), South Korea imported mixed xylene at a price of US $952.5 per ton, a year-on-year drop of US $36 per ton, or 3.64%.

In terms of crude oil, the economic data performed better than expected. Superimposed on the decline of the US dollar, the US crude oil and gasoline stocks declined. OPEC+promoted production reduction. The demand of the oil market may improve. The overall international oil price rose this week. As of November 4, Brent prices this week rose by 2.8 dollars/barrel, or 2.92%, compared with last week; WTI rose $4.71 per barrel, or 5.36%.

In terms of downstream, in terms of PX, domestic PX fell broadly this week. On October 28, the price was 9300 yuan/ton, and on November 4, it was 8600 yuan/ton, 7.53% lower than last week, and 17.81% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of OX, the price of OX in East China fell this week. On October 28, it was 9600 yuan/ton, and on November 4, it was 9300 yuan/ton, down 3.12% from last week and up 27.05% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline rebounded slightly after falling this week. On October 28, the price was 8329 yuan/ton, and on November 4, it was 8179 yuan/ton, 1.8% lower than last week, and 1.33% higher than the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

In terms of crude oil, in the later stage, the macro and supply and demand sides are still good for the oil market, and the oil price may be stronger in the future. However, before the European embargo on crude oil and product oil from Russia comes into effect, the oil market is still uncertain due to the disturbance of geopolitical factors. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Although there is still support on the supply side, the demand side has depressed the mixed xylene market. In general, mixed xylene still continues to operate in a weak position. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory, and external market on the price of mixed xylene.

The soaring price of raw materials drives the rise of DOTP price

It can be seen from the chart of the rise and fall of DOTP industrial chain price of the business cooperative that the rise of both the raw material isooctanol and PTA prices this week stimulated the rise of DOTP, with isooctanol rising 5.93%, PTA rising 1.54%, DOTP rising 3.93%, and plasticizer DOTP industrial chain products rising at the same time.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 4, the average price of DOTP was 10250 yuan/ton, 387.50 yuan/ton higher than the average price of 9862.50 yuan/ton on October 28. The corresponding price of isooctanol rose by nearly 700 yuan/ton, and the PTA price rose by 87.5 yuan/ton. The difference between the rise of isooctanol price and the rise of DOTP price is large, mainly because the weak downstream demand has dragged down the plasticizer market, and the insufficient rise of PTA price does not support the sharp rise of DOTP.

The price trend of raw materials rises

 
According to the data of the business association; The price of isooctanol stopped rising this week. As of November 4, the price of isooctanol was 9533.33 yuan/ton, up 5.93% from 9000 yuan/ton on October 31 last weekend. This week, due to equipment maintenance of isooctanol manufacturers and limited transportation, it is difficult for manufacturers to ship. The price of isooctanol has risen sharply, and the cost of DOTP has risen. With the recovery of transportation, the demand is poor, and the price rise of isooctanol in the future market is not supported enough.

According to the data of the business community, as of November 4, the PTA price was 5787.50 yuan/ton, up 1.54% from 5700 yuan/ton on October 30 last weekend. Recently, there are many PTA maintenance and production reduction capacities, PTA supply is tight, PTA prices are rising, raw material prices are rising, and DOTP is gaining momentum.

The market for plastic products remains weak

According to the data released by the Bureau of Statistics, the output of plastic products in September was 6.92 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2%. The domestic output of plastic products from January to September was 57.607 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 4.2%. In the traditional peak season, the output of plastic products in September is slightly higher than that in August, which is relatively normal, while the domestic manufacturing industry contracted in October. The output of plastic products in October is expected to converge to October 2021 or lower than the same period last year. The downstream just needs insufficient digestion capacity, the demand for plasticizer is expected to decline, and the downward pressure of plasticizer DOP price is large.

Future market expectation

Analysts of DOTP data from the business agency believe that the rise in the prices of raw materials, such as isooctanol and PTA, this week has stimulated the rise in DOTP prices. However, due to the weak performance on the demand side, the rise in plasticizer DOTP has been weak. In the future, with the recovery of transportation and the completion of enterprise maintenance, the supply shortage of isooctanol and PTA will be alleviated, the DOTP cost support will be weakened, and the demand will be weak. The DOTP decline risk will increase. It is expected that the DOTP will stabilize at a high level in the future, with a downside risk.

From October 1, 2022 to October 31, 2022, the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese will rise. The spot market price in East China will be 16700 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 17300 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.59%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above that the electrolytic manganese market stopped falling and recovered after entering August. Although the increase rate in August and September was less than 1%, the increase rate in October was 3.59%, and the electrolytic manganese market began to recover. From the weekly chart, we can see that the electrolytic manganese market has maintained a temporary stable operation for most of the time, and the price has risen significantly near the end of October.

Manganese ore: In October, the manganese ore market was dominated by weak operation, and the manufacturers’ price reduction was obvious, but the demand was relatively stable. In terms of transportation, the lines in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi are still limited, the freight rate keeps rising slightly, and the superimposed silicon manganese market goes down, and the loss of manufacturers further rises. As of October 28, the semicarbonic acid in Tianjin Port was 34-34.5 yuan/ton, the Australian block was about 44.5 yuan/ton, the transaction of Australian seed dropped below 40 yuan/ton, and Gabon was about 39 yuan/ton. The short-term price performance was weak, and the shipment sentiment was strong; In Qinzhou Port, the transaction price of South Africa semi carbonic acid is lower than 35 yuan/ton, and the price of Australia is 44-45 yuan/ton. The price of Gabon block is about 42 yuan/ton.

In September 2022, China will import 3.126 million tons of manganese ore, an increase of 30.25% compared with 2.4 million tons in August; The import volume from South Africa in September was 1537900 tons, an increase of 55.11% month on month. In September, the import volume from Australia was 4216000 tons, an increase of 91.5% month on month.

From January to September 2022, China imported 22229300 tons of manganese ore.

The electrolytic manganese market has rebounded slightly since the end of August, but the overall performance is average, with a monthly increase of less than 1%. After entering October, the first half of the month remained temporarily stable for most of the time, and the price rose slightly near the end of the month. At present, the mainstream market price is 15500-15700 yuan/ Tons, but the market turnover was less than expected, and the downstream still focused on purchasing on demand. In terms of steel bidding, POSCO, South Korea, resumed electrolytic manganese bidding again this month, boosting the market mentality. However, the overall situation of domestic steel bidding has also improved compared with the previous period. The quantity and price of steel bidding have rebounded to a certain extent compared with the previous period, and the market mentality has improved to a certain extent. The domestic alliance will implement the measures of limiting production and reducing production in August December. After the alliance meeting, the price starts to rise slightly. The enterprises have a strong attitude towards price fixing, and the market has been boosted to a certain extent. It is expected that the future market price will remain stable and strong, and there is still some room for growth. The mentality of supply and demand game is strong.

Bad news kept coming in October. The domestic silicon manganese spot market had a poor trend, and the futures market declined. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the quotation in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was about 7000-7200 yuan/ton on October 28, down 1.62% from the beginning of the month.

Relevant data:

In September 2022, China’s imports of electrolytic manganese were 2000.39 tons, up 1000.38 tons month on month; In September 2022, the export volume of China’s electrolytic manganese was 23464.81 tons, up 3643.88 tons month on month.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of domestic LNG was 6006 yuan/ton on October 26, and 5380 yuan/ton on November 2. Domestic LNG prices fell 10.42% within seven days.

2、 Market analysis

It can be seen from the weekly rise and fall from August 8, 2022 to October 30, 2022 that the domestic LNG industry has seen a lot of ups and downs during the cycle. The maximum increase in the cycle was 10.25% in the week of September 12, and the maximum decrease was -12.1% in the week of October 24.

The domestic LNG market has been weak in recent seven days, and the price trend has continued to decline. Due to the strengthened control of domestic epidemic situation and the blocked transportation, the price of domestic gas has been greatly reduced. The market demand is low, and the market is mainly bad. The final bid price of feed gas directly supplied by PetroChina to the northwest liquid plant in the first ten days of November was 3.55-3.81 yuan/m3, the average price was 0.24 yuan/m3 higher than the previous period, and the trading volume was 50 million m3. At present, the market trading is still flat, with gains and losses in various regions. As the northern heating season begins, the terminal demand will be released gradually.

Offer of LNG in domestic mainstream market on November 2:

Region, quotation

Inner Mongolia 5250-5660

Shaanxi, 5700-6000

Shanxi Province, 5300-5800

Ningxia, 5550-5760

Hebei.,. 5950-6050

Henan, 6100-6500

Sichuan, 6100-6500

Shandong, 6330-6450

3、 Future market forecast

LNG analysts from the business community believe that: due to weak terminal demand, the domestic LNG market has continued to run weak in recent days. With the start of the heating season in the north, the market demand for liquefied natural gas has increased, and there are signs of rebound in some areas, so the market is waiting to rise. In addition, the price of feed gas is firm and the cost is supported. It is expected that the LNG market will stop falling and consolidate in the short term.