According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on February 28 was 94.09, which was the same as yesterday, down 15.62% from the highest point of 111.51 (2021-11-03) in the cycle, and up 13.51% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market in February 2023 was mainly stable and slightly downward: on the 1st of this month, the main market price was about 15542.86 yuan/ton, and on the 28th, the main market price was about 15442.86 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 0.64%. At present, the polyacrylamide manufacturers have sufficient inventory, the downstream demand is general, the market is not strong, and the order situation is not ideal. The cost of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid, propylene, rose first and then fell, resulting in the cost support from strong to weak. The downstream demand contradicted the high-priced supply of goods, and the follow-up was slow. The mainstream market of both products rose sharply and then declined slightly this month. Due to the high inventory of polyacrylamide manufacturers, the low production of new orders, and the remaining inventory before the year, the price change of raw materials has little impact on it; Affected by the continued weakness of its downstream demand, the market price of polyacrylamide fluctuated slightly this month.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the Business News Agency, the market price of acrylonitrile rose sharply in February and then continued to decline slightly, and finally rose by 4.35% this month. The bulk water price of acrylonitrile market was 10062.5 yuan/ton on February 1, and 10500 yuan/ton was quoted on the 28th. Among them, the highest price of the stage was 10800 yuan/ton on February 7, the lowest price was 10062.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the maximum amplitude was 7.33%. The acrylonitrile raw material propylene market generally rose first and then slightly decreased; The stable production and commencement of the downstream have a strong need for support for acrylonitrile, but the downstream has a slight resistance to high-priced sources of goods. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.

Acrylic acid as raw material: According to the data of the Business Agency, the acrylic acid market rose first and then fell slightly in February, with a monthly increase of 4.55%. Among them, the average price in East China on February 1 was 7700 yuan/ton, and the average price on February 28 was 8050 yuan/ton; The highest price of the stage is 8200 yuan/ton from the 13th to the 19th, and the lowest price is 7700 yuan/ton from the 1st, with a maximum amplitude of 6.49%. At present, the price of raw material propylene is weak, the cost support is general, the market is wait-and-see operation, the downstream demand is gradually warming, and under the support of the supply and demand side, the acrylic acid market is expected to be stable in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to the guidance of market news.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the data of the Business News Agency, the domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) fell first and then rose in February: from 6060 yuan/ton on February 1 to 6082 yuan/ton on February 28, with a monthly decrease of 0.13%; Among them, the highest price of the stage is 6090 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the lowest price of the stage is 5724 yuan/ton on the 10th or so, with the monthly maximum amplitude of 6.01%. As the weather warms, demand decreases, market support weakens, and the market is temporarily negative, it is expected that the domestic LNG price will continue to decline in the short term.

Aftermarket forecast: the price of main raw materials will mainly decline slightly, and the production of polyacrylamide will be normal and the inventory will be sufficient. The demand for downstream demand orders will continue to be weak. It is expected that the support will continue to be unfavorable in the short term, and the polyacrylamide market will continue to be weak.

Futures market: This week (2.20-2.24), the main force of staple fiber futures closed up in a narrow range of shocks. The main contract of short-fiber PF futures closed at 7278 on Friday, up 2.97% from last week’s closing price. The settlement price is 7258 yuan. This week, the main domestic staple fiber upstream raw material PTA futures rose 3.68% to 5638, and the main ethylene glycol futures rose 3.77% to 4354.

Spot price: the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber fell slightly this week. According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was about 7372 yuan/ton on February 24, down 1.21% from Monday’s price and 5.61% from the same period last year.

Most central banks around the world have not completed tightening monetary policy, which may reduce the future demand for crude oil. However, the EIA reported on Thursday that (as of the week of February 17) the US gasoline inventory decreased by 1.9 million barrels, while the sharp decrease in gasoline inventory represented strong demand. The main force of American oil futures fell 0.3% and closed at US $76.32 per barrel this week. In the near future, PTA plant production reduction and maintenance increased slightly, the terminal resumed work actively, the commencement gradually increased, the PTA supply and demand margin improved, and the price rose slightly. In the near future, ethylene glycol society and port stocks are high, and the expected maintenance load of devices is increasing, and the downstream recovery drives the price of ethylene glycol to rebound slightly. In the near future, the start of staple fiber has rebounded slightly, and the start of downstream yarn mills and weaving mills has gradually recovered. The terminal orders have warmed up, and the staple fiber enterprises have gone to stock slightly, and the staple fiber futures prices have risen slightly along with the cost.

In the future, the cost support of staple fiber raw materials is acceptable, the downstream yarn mills and weaving mills are actively resuming work, and the staple fiber enterprises are cautiously optimistic about the recovery of future demand, but the sustainability of the follow-up needs to be observed. It is expected that the short-term staple fiber price will oscillate with the cost. In the future, we will focus on the price trend of raw materials and the recovery of terminal orders.

According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, the domestic aggregate MDI market is weak. From February 17 to 24, the market price of domestic aggregate MDI fell from 16500 yuan/ton to 16240 yuan/ton. The price fell by 1.58% in the week. The price rose by 8.56% month-on-month and 20.78% year-on-year. At present, the main reason affecting the trend of the aggregated MDI market is still the demand side. The purchasing atmosphere in the downstream industry is still weak. Some traders and downstream buyers are looking for lower prices, and the overall demand has increased compared with the previous period.

On the supply side, Chongqing BASF 400000 t/a unit entered the maintenance state on February 5, and the supply was reduced. Under no great pressure from the production enterprises, it was still in a price attitude.

In terms of cost, raw material pure benzene: the domestic market price of pure benzene fluctuates slightly. The spot transaction was 6970-7070 yuan/ton; The market price in Shandong was 6720-6880 yuan/ton. Raw aniline: orders from some downstream factories increased, and demand warmed; Combined with the planned overhaul of aniline plant in March, the overall state of mind of the market was positive, and the aniline market rose sharply. There are obvious short-term positive factors on the cost side of aggregate MDI.

On the demand side, the trading atmosphere in the terminal market is poor, and the ability to follow orders is limited. Downstream factories and traders still have some early inventory, and short-term inventory orders are mainly digested.

According to the aftermarket forecast, the production enterprises are close to the settlement cycle, and the supply side will maintain a strong support, but the follow-up capacity of the demand side is relatively limited. According to the analyst of MDI polymerization of the Business Agency, the market situation of MDI polymerization in China is mainly stalemate and consolidation.

According to the price monitoring data of the Business Agency, as of February 23, 2023, the price of domestic n-propanol was referenced at 8000 yuan/ton. Compared with February 3, 2023 (the reference price of n-propanol was 8066 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 66 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83%.

It can be seen from the monitoring chart of the data of the business agency that the domestic n-propanol market has been in a slight decline in the overall fluctuation since February (2.03-2.23). At the beginning of February, the recovery of downstream demand for n-propanol was relatively slow, and the price of n-propanol was lowered by Shandong large factories, which led to the weak market as a whole. In the middle of February, the market of n-propanol recovered slightly, but the downstream digested the raw materials in the early stage. The new orders on the market were light, and the demand support was weak. The overall market of n-propanol in the second half of February declined slightly. As of February 23, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province was around 7350-7700 yuan/ton (bulk water). The market price of n-propanol in Nanjing is around 8500-9000 yuan/ton. Dealers in different regions have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. There are also differences in each region, and the negotiation is based on the actual order.

Prediction of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the downstream demand of n-propanol is still being released gradually. With the weather warming, the downstream demand of the terminal will gradually increase. The n-propanol statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly be stable and small, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the supply and demand information.

DOP price rose on February 21

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 21, the price of DOP was 9890 yuan/ton, up 1.96% from 9700 yuan/ton on February 20 of the previous trading day. The cost rose, and the DOP price rose again on February 21.

Analysis points

The price of isooctanol stopped rising, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized strongly, the cost of DOP raw materials stabilized strongly, and the downward pressure of DOP weakened and the upward momentum remained; Downstream procurement is general, PVC prices fluctuate and rise, the demand for plasticizers warms up, and the downward pressure of plasticizer DOP weakens, and the upward momentum remains.

Aftermarket expectation

The cost is strong, the demand is stable, and the plasticizer DOP is mixed. It is expected that DOP will consolidate strongly in the future.