In the second half of July, the propylene glycol market showed a trend of first rising and then falling, rising and falling. As of July 29th, the average production price of propylene glycol in Shandong region was 9233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.46% compared to the middle of the month.
Core driving factors
Cost side: The raw material epoxy propane is the core variable of the market trend in the second half of July. The propylene glycol market is highly linked to the prices of upstream raw materials such as epichlorohydrin and crude oil. Disturbed by the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the fluctuation of crude oil has led to fluctuations in the cost of propylene, resulting in frequent fluctuations in the rise and fall of propylene oxide. The cost transmission effect is significant, and propylene glycol fluctuates accordingly.
Supply side: The overall production capacity of propylene glycol in China remains loose, but in July, some regional facilities underwent centralized maintenance, leading to a decrease in industry production and temporary tightening of local supply sources, which supported market prices. At the same time, the clearance of outdated production capacity and the tightening of environmental policies in the industry have posed certain constraints on the overall supply growth rate. At the import and export level, there is a continuous shortage of imported goods, and external impacts are limited.
Demand side: Propylene glycol Traditional downstream: Unsaturated polyester resin, alkyd resin, polyether industry is in the traditional off-season of summer. The terminal orders for building materials and composite materials are weak, and downstream factories are operating at a low level. Downstream enterprises generally implement the strategy of purchasing for essential needs, and their willingness to hoard goods is low in the high price environment, which continues to constrain the upward space. In June, the export volume of propylene glycol increased significantly by 148% year-on-year, and overseas orders continued to divert domestic sources, easing the pressure of weak domestic demand; Cosmetics and food grade essential needs are stable, but their weight in the overall consumption is limited, making it difficult to drive the market.
Market forecast:
The bottom of the cost of epichlorohydrin still exists, and geopolitical news may still disturb crude oil and raw material prices; Maintain resilience in export orders and continue to divert domestic sources of goods; However, the traditional off-season continues downstream, and the acceptance of high priced raw materials is insufficient; The resumption of production of maintenance equipment has led to an increase in the supply of goods and a slow accumulation of social inventory; After the early rise in the cost side was realized, there was insufficient driving force to continue upward. It is expected that propylene glycol will continue to fluctuate weakly within the range in the short term, with limited upward space and the risk of further minor corrections.

The geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East has rapidly dissipated, and international oil prices have fallen sharply. Brent crude oil has fallen from above $95 per barrel to around $85, with a maximum daily decline of over 7%, driving the entire domestic energy and chemical industry chain to weaken, and synthetic rubber futures and spot prices have synchronously declined. Data shows that as of July 28th, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 13540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.70% from last Friday’s 14060 yuan/ton.
In terms of futures, the main contract of Shunding Rubber BR2609 fell 6.22% on the 28th, closing at 12120 yuan/ton, with a cumulative drop of nearly 900 yuan per week; The ex factory price of butadiene rubber in the spot market has been lowered by 400 yuan/ton to 13200 yuan/ton, and traders have voluntarily offered discounts for shipments, resulting in a synchronous decline in spot market prices.
The pressure on supply and demand fundamentals has increased, with domestic synthetic rubber plants operating at over 66% capacity and sufficient market supply; The downstream tire industry is traditionally operating at a low level during the off-season. As of July 24th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 6.5%, while the operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 6.5%; Domestic tire companies have 40.3 days of finished steel tire inventory and 45.6 days of semi-finished steel tire inventory.
Market forecast: In the short term, the market is highly bound to fluctuations in crude oil prices. If international oil prices continue to be weak, the support for raw material costs will loosen, and butadiene rubber will maintain a weak pattern. If crude oil stops falling and rebounds, and downstream tire production significantly rebounds, the price of butadiene rubber will rise again.

1、 The lithium hexafluorophosphate market is recovering and showing a clear trend of stabilization and recovery. As of July 27th, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium hexafluorophosphate was 104500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.34% from the beginning of the month.
2、 Raw material side: The price of raw material battery grade lithium carbonate is running weakly and steadily. As of July 27th, the benchmark price of Business Society’s lithium carbonate (battery grade) was 143000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.33% compared to the beginning of this month (156000.00 yuan/ton). Although the cost side price is relatively weak, the industry’s capacity utilization rate remains high, and the downward space for costs is limited. The bottom support for the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate still exists.
3、 Demand side: The peak season is approaching, and downstream demand continues to be strong. The demand side is the main driving force behind the current market trend. The demand for downstream power batteries and energy storage continues to increase, and the traditional peak season in the third quarter has driven the saturation of electrolyte orders. In addition, the increasing certainty of demand in the energy storage track and the continuous release of global demand for energy storage cells provide strong support for upstream materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate.
4、 Market forecast: The current lithium hexafluorophosphate market is showing a pattern of “slight cost loosening and sustained strong demand”. Against the backdrop of a decline in lithium carbonate prices, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate can still rise slightly against the trend, reflecting the strong resilience of downstream demand. With the deepening of the peak season in the third quarter, it is expected that prices will operate steadily, moderately, and strongly supported by demand.

In July 2026, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market experienced a slight decline, with an average price of 15815 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. As of July 24th, the average price was 15675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89%.
Fundamental analysis
supply side
The original stability is increasing, but the regeneration continues to suffer losses, and the supply pattern is differentiated. The current lead supply side presents a typical differentiation pattern of “primary stability, weak regeneration”. In terms of primary lead, inspection and cultivation factories in Hunan, North China, and other regions have resumed production since mid July. The weekly operating rate of primary lead is expected to slightly increase from around 65%, with a marginal increase in supply compared to the previous period. The processing fee for lead concentrate continues to be deeply inverted, and the pattern of tight balance of raw materials has not changed. However, the revenue from by-products such as silver and sulfuric acid still supports the refinery’s willingness to maintain production, and the overall supply of primary lead remains stable with an increasing trend. In terms of recycled lead, the supply of waste batteries continues to be tight, and recyclers have a strong reluctance to sell. The recycled lead industry is generally in a loss state – currently, it loses about 600 yuan per ton of recycled lead produced. The weekly operating rate of recycled lead in the four provinces of China is only about 30%, which is relatively low for the year. However, the import window for lead ingots remains open, and low-priced lead from overseas continues to flow into the domestic market, which to some extent offsets the reduction in domestic recycling.

Demand side
The off-season features are significant, and downstream delivery is weak. Currently, it is the off-season for traditional consumption of lead-acid batteries, and downstream demand is showing weak performance. The comprehensive operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises in five provinces across the country is about 63.26%, with a slight decrease compared to the previous period. Distributors mainly focus on digesting pre stock inventory, with overall light new orders and weak demand for electric bicycle replacement and car starter batteries. Downstream battery factories maintain a strategy of “production based on sales and procurement according to demand”, without large-scale stocking plans. The spot market has seen light trading, and the divergence in quotes among holders has widened. Both price hikes and expansion discounts have coexisted in shipments. The discount on delivery source quotes from electrolytic lead refineries has expanded, with some discounts as low as 100-80 yuan/ton. In terms of exports, 85.95 million lead-acid batteries were exported in the first half of this year, a significant year-on-year decline.
Inventory end
Inventory is currently the most pressing factor in the lead market.. LME lead inventory has climbed to a nearly 50 year high, reaching 449325 tons as of July 23. LME has cancelled 65200 tons of warehouse receipts, accounting for approximately 14% of registered inventory. The lead inventory in the previous week decreased by 1361 tons compared to the previous week, with a slight decrease but still at a high level. The overall high levels of explicit inventory both internally and externally continue to suppress the upward potential of lead prices.
Overall summary
Short term lead prices are expected to continue the pattern of low-level weak fluctuations. Supporting factors: Firstly, the rigid bottom support of waste battery costs has led to widespread losses and low price reluctance among recycled lead enterprises, limiting further downward space; Secondly, the Shanghai lead position is at a recent high, indicating a significant divergence between long and short positions, and funds have a strong willingness to play at the current position. Suppressing factors: Firstly, LME lead inventories are at an absolute high level in the past 50 years, with both internal and external explicit inventories being generally high, which continues to suppress the upward potential of lead prices; The second reason is that the off-season for lead-acid battery consumption has not yet ended, and downstream operating rates continue to decline, with rigid demand procurement being the main focus.

The price of ethylene oxide will increase in July 2026. As of July 22, the average market price of epoxyethane in China was 7000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.94% from the market average price of 7600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (7.1).
On July 22, 2026, the mainstream market ex factory listing prices for ethylene oxide in various regions of China are as follows: the ethylene oxide market in East China is priced at 7000 yuan/ton for external transactions; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6900-7000 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in North China is 6850 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the Central China region is 68000-7050 yuan/ton.
Analysis of the Reasons for the Price Increase of Ethylene Oxide in July 2026
The core of the rise in ethylene oxide prices in July was driven by the increase in ethylene costs due to crude oil, coupled with short-term supply contraction caused by the centralized maintenance of multiple units in the early stage, and the continuous destocking and strengthening of co produced ethylene glycol to divert commodity EO sources. Combined with the recovery of macro chemical sentiment and the low-level replenishment of downstream demand, the prices rose; However, in the off-season of traditional terminal industries and the gradual resumption of maintenance equipment production, there are obvious constraints on the upward space, which belongs to the stage of repair market.
1、 Strong cost support
The geopolitical situation between the United States and Iran has repeatedly pushed up international crude oil and naphtha prices, while Asian ethylene spot prices continue to rise. The cost of EO raw materials has also increased, and the pressure of factory losses has intensified. Therefore, they have proactively raised ex factory prices to pass on costs.
2、 Periodic supply contraction and tight spot supply
In June, multiple sets of EO supporting equipment underwent centralized maintenance, but the progress of resuming production in early July was slow. Coupled with the fact that Yangzi Petrochemical stopped for maintenance again, the industry’s production capacity has been limited, and the market circulation of spot goods is insufficient. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices due to low inventory levels..
3、 Ethylene glycol linkage strengthens, driving industry chain sentiment
The East China ethylene glycol port continues to significantly reduce inventory to recent low levels, and MEG spot prices have rebounded significantly. With the co production of ethylene oxide in the same facility, enterprises prioritize high profit ethylene glycol exports, divert EO commodity volume, and further tighten the circulation of ethylene oxide commodity sources.
4、 Market buying increases to replenish inventory+macro chemical sentiment repair
The US economic data weakened, expectations of interest rate hikes cooled down, and overall commodity sentiment rebounded; In the early stage, EO prices were low, and downstream demand for polyether, water reducing agents, and washing raw materials gathered to replenish inventory at low prices. Traders hoarded goods, driving up transactions and boosting quotes.
Future forecast
In the later stage, the ethylene oxide maintenance units will gradually resume production, and the incremental supply of ethylene oxide will be gradually released; The demand for terminal real estate and textile terminals is weak, and downstream companies dare not hoard a large amount of goods. This round is only driven by cost and low inventory to repair and rise, and the trend upward space is limited.

It is expected that in the short term from the end of July to August, the concentrated resumption of production of early-stage maintenance equipment will increase the circulation of commodity ethylene oxide. Coupled with the continuous off-season in the downstream of daily chemical and building materials, demand will only maintain the purchase of essential goods, weakening the upward momentum. The market will fluctuate at a high level and be slightly under pressure. The cost side of crude oil and ethylene will form bottom support, making it difficult for a deep decline to occur; The traditional peak season of September and October has arrived, and the demand for water reducers and textile auxiliaries has rebounded month on month. In addition, some units are scheduled to undergo autumn maintenance, and the strong demand for ethylene glycol has made co production enterprises prioritize the production of MEG. The supply of commodity EO has tightened again, and prices are expected to rise slightly. However, the weakness of the real estate terminal limits the upward height; In the medium to long term, the industry will continue to increase production capacity, and the supply and demand pattern will gradually loosen. Without large-scale centralized maintenance, prices will return to a weak range by the end of the fourth quarter. The core volatility risks come from fluctuations in international crude oil and ethylene raw materials, temporary plant shutdowns, and changes in downstream terminal demand.