In September, the hydrogen peroxide market fluctuated and rose, with an increase of nearly 5%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 623 yuan/ton. On September 10th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 653 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.81%.
Reasons for the fluctuation of hydrogen peroxide market
Supply side: The overall operating rate of the industry is moderate, with maintenance equipment being restarted one after another in the early stages. There are not many new shutdowns, and the total supply has rebounded compared to August. However, there is significant regional differentiation: Shandong has concentrated production capacity and sufficient supply of goods; Due to maintenance and logistics factors in the Southwest and South China regions, the supply of goods is relatively tight. Raw materials: Hydrogen and anthraquinone systems have average cost support, and this round of market trend mainly depends on supply and demand, with cost not the dominant factor. Storage and transportation characteristics: Hydrogen peroxide should not be stored for a long time, and manufacturers dare not stockpile in large quantities. The inventory generally maintains low turnover, and the inventory elasticity is very small. Once downstream centralized replenishment occurs, the quotation is prone to rapid increase.
On the demand side, as we enter the traditional peak season of September, the bleaching procurement of paper mills has rebounded compared to August, making it the most significant increase in September; Lithium iron phosphate: Some iron phosphate enterprises have increased their production capacity, leading to an increase in demand for oxidants; After the autumn maintenance of municipal and sewage treatment plants, they will resume operation. The production of caprolactam and epichlorohydrin is still weak, and the incremental procurement of large factories is limited; The demand for printing and dyeing textiles is flat, mostly for immediate use and procurement, without stocking up in advance; Downstream enterprises are generally cautious, mainly focusing on essential procurement, with weak willingness to lock up orders and stockpile goods on a large scale.
In summary, in mid September, domestic hydrogen peroxide supply pressure remained, rigid demand increased, and the market will continue to fluctuate and rise in the future. From a technical perspective, it can be seen that the hydrogen peroxide market was at a high level in early September, and there is still room for further decline in the future. In mid September, the hydrogen peroxide industry will continue to fluctuate and rise, with prices expected to be between 650 yuan/ton and 700 yuan/ton.

In early September, the domestic ABS market showed a positive trend, with most grades experiencing an increase in spot prices. As of September 9th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11233.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.66% from the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: As we enter September, the domestic ABS industry’s equipment load remains stable with small fluctuations, and the overall operating rate within the range is around 57%. The current weekly average production is within 130000 tons. The inventory position of finished products is still acceptable and has been reduced to less than 180000 tons. The shipment situation of aggregation plants within the range is average, with poor profitability. There is still an expectation of contraction in the short term after the supply market. Overall, the ABS supply side’s support for spot prices in early September is still acceptable.
Cost factor: The situation in the Middle East fluctuated in early September, making it difficult to implement a ceasefire agreement. The shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz is relatively high, and there is concern in the market about international crude oil supply, with geopolitical premiums continuing to rise. Driving the prices of pure benzene and styrene to rise synchronously, while exports remain positive, it is expected that the market may maintain a strong pattern,
Although the acrylonitrile market is supported by the rise in crude oil prices, the combination of high operating rates and low consumption is suppressing spot prices. In the early stage, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 660000 tons and Sino British Petrochemical’s 130000 tons of new equipment and production capacity will be successively implemented, and the current oversupply is looming over the acrylonitrile market. At the beginning of the month, after a stalemate and consolidation, the market fell and quickly turned downwards. At the same time, the demand is sluggish, and the future price of acrylonitrile is prone to decline but difficult to rise.
In early September, the cost sentiment support for butadiene combined with the tightening of spot circulation in the market has heated up the bullish atmosphere, and prices continue to rise; But as raw material prices rise, downstream capacity continues to weaken, and resistance to high priced goods gradually increases. At the end of the decade, negative feedback from downstream markets emerged, and the market’s willingness to chase higher prices cooled down, leading to a high-level consolidation of the market. Suggestions for future market trends include paying attention to the rebalancing of upstream and downstream profits, as well as the fulfillment of traditional demand during peak seasons.
In terms of demand, there will be limited changes in the start of ABS downstream enterprises in early September. The profitability of the main terminal electrical industry has not improved, and the buyer camp’s sentiment has returned to resistance to high priced sources, with a tendency to take goods as needed. The willingness to chase price increases on the market is average, and merchants follow the market and withdraw funds. Overall, there was a slight shortage of demand in early September, and there was no clear signal of the traditional off-season starting.
Future forecast
The domestic ABS market rose in early September. The cost of the three materials within the range fluctuated, and the production load of the aggregation plant changed narrowly. The inventory is low, but the on-site supply still maintains a sufficient range. Since the beginning of the month, ABS consumption has been average, and the unit price profit situation has not improved. The current market trend is focused on remote cost values, and it is recommended to closely monitor the signals of crude oil and traditional peak season activation in the future.

Recently, the price of ethylene glycol has been high, and the operating rate of domestic facilities has increased. Under the increase in supply, the ethylene glycol market has fluctuated at a high level and adjusted weakly. On September 8th, mainstream spot prices in East China closed at 9750 yuan/ton,+15 yuan/ton; The spot price in South China closed at 9350 yuan/ton, -10 yuan/ton.
Supply side: Imports are unknown due to the situation in the Middle East and passage through the strait; Negotiations on the expected resumption of supply for Taiwan’s facilities in September; Domestic equipment increased its load due to improved efficiency and was sold to the market, resulting in an overall increase in supply in September. According to statistics, as of September 7th, the inventory of diethylene glycol ports in East China was 3300 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from the previous cycle. This cycle (September 8-14), Zhangjiagang Diethylene Glycol plans to ship 3130 tons, including South Asian cargo and ocean freight; There are no domestic products this week.
Demand side: Polyester load continues to weaken, dropping to around 75%; UPR construction is hovering around 30%, pay attention to the follow-up of terminal replenishment. According to statistics, as of September 3rd, the average weekly operating rate of unsaturated resin factories in China was 32.5%, and the overall capacity utilization rate decreased compared to the previous cycle. In terms of dock shipments, from August 31st to September 6th, the total amount of shipments from the main ports in East China, Changjiang International and Fubao Warehouse, was 1346 tons, with an average daily shipment of about 192 tons; On September 7th, a total of 66 tons were shipped from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang, a decrease of 126 tons compared to last Sunday’s average shipment.
Cost wise: The instability of the US Iran situation continues, supply risk concerns remain difficult to eliminate, and international oil prices have risen.
Market expectation: In the short term, the situation between the US and Iran has reversed, and crude oil has driven EG to be stronger. However, with the backdrop of negative domestic equipment (including Taiwan), supply expectations are gradually easing, and short-term prices are shifting from macro expectations to fundamentals. The market is mainly focused on reducing holdings and premiums, and price expectations are adjusted weakly.

At the beginning of September, the domestic lithium carbonate market experienced a significant downward trend. As of September 7th, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 143000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.3% from the beginning of the month at 156000 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 7000 yuan/ton on September 7th. This round of price fluctuations is not caused by a single factor, but rather the result of multiple factors such as inventory depletion falling short of expectations, changes in the supply-demand marginal pattern, market sentiment fluctuations, and capital linkage effects. The uncertainty of the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” peak season market in the industry has significantly increased.
The reversal of inventory expectations is the core incentive for the current lithium price correction
Previously, the market had predicted in advance the continuous destocking trend of the industrial chain, and lithium prices also maintained a relatively stable trend based on destocking logic. But the latest industry data shows that the pace of lithium carbonate inventory depletion has significantly slowed down. Although the industry’s inventory has remained depleted for 18 consecutive weeks, the scale of destocking has significantly contracted. According to relevant sample data, the recent decline in lithium carbonate inventory has significantly narrowed compared to the previous period, while weekly production has shown a significant rebound. The actual consumption data in the terminal market is lower than expected, highlighting signals of loose supply and demand margins. Combined with the recent optimization and adjustment of the inventory statistics system, it has further intensified the market’s concerns about inventory pressure, directly driving the futures market to fall rapidly and the spot prices to decline accordingly. Breaking the previous market pricing logic.
The marginal changes between supply and demand further suppress the trend of lithium prices
On the supply side, the overseas supply risks that disrupted the market in the early stage have basically dissipated, and the labor disputes of Chilean Yabao enterprises have entered the compulsory mediation stage. The originally planned strike plan has been suspended, and the premium of tight supply of overseas lithium resources has completely disappeared. At the same time, imported lithium mines from Africa continue to arrive at ports, and the production capacity of lithium salts that were previously shut down for maintenance in China is gradually resuming. The overall supply capacity of the industry is steadily recovering, and the market supply reserves remain abundant. However, the resumption of production in some domestic mines has been hindered, and there are still certain constraints on short-term new supply, resulting in structural differentiation on the supply side.
The expectation of weakening on the demand side has become the main bearish factor in the market. Entering the traditional peak consumption season, the market had high expectations for the recovery of lithium battery terminal demand. However, the recent news of top battery companies lowering their production schedules for September has raised doubts about the market’s ability to fulfill the “Golden September and Silver October” peak season. At the same time, industry research shows that the monthly production forecast for ternary lithium batteries has declined, and there is a risk of weakening in the long-term terminal demand for new energy vehicles. The concern of lower than expected demand growth during peak seasons continues to spread. However, there is still rigid demand in the spot market. After the sharp decline in lithium prices, downstream companies have increased their willingness to replenish inventory at low prices, and market inquiry activity has rebounded. The purchase of essential goods supports spot trading, which to some extent alleviates the downward trend in prices.
The emotional linkage in the capital market has further amplified the volatility of lithium prices
Recently, equity asset funds in the lithium battery sector have continued to flow out, creating emotional resonance between the stock market and the commodity market, exacerbating the downward pressure on lithium carbonate futures prices. At the same time, high warehouse receipts in the market continue to suppress the upward space of prices, and market funds repeatedly play games, making short-term lithium price fluctuations more severe, and the market trading mentality tends to be cautious.

Overall, the current fundamentals of the lithium carbonate market present a pattern of mixed long and short positions. In the short term, the industry will continue its destocking trend, and inventory is expected to remain at the level of 10000 tons in September. However, the destocking capacity has significantly weakened compared to August, and it cannot sustain the strong upward trend of lithium prices. The demand side has basic resilience in the short term, but the downward adjustment of production schedules by leading enterprises has caused temporary disturbances and increased market uncertainty. Specific attention still needs to be paid to the pace of overseas lithium mine arrivals, the progress of domestic mining and salt lake production capacity resumption, and the actual fulfillment of terminal peak season demand.

1、 Price trend
This week, the aniline market rose at a high level. On August 31st, the price of aniline in the market was 13425 yuan/ton, and on September 4th, it was 13525 yuan/ton. The price increased by 0.74% during the week and 79.14% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
Supported by high prices of aniline during the week, aniline narrowly pushed up. High raw material prices, tightened profits for downstream products of aniline, weakened purchasing intentions, and a focus on essential needs. The rise in the price of raw material pure benzene has driven up the price of aniline. As of this Friday, the mainstream domestic price for aniline is 13500-13600 yuan/ton.
On the cost side: The pure benzene market is tight and the supply and demand pattern is becoming loose. On the one hand, production enterprises are in a negative channel. On the other hand, although downstream profits have recovered, production is still dragged down by terminals, resulting in a slow negative trend. The current absolute inventory level is still low, and the circulation of goods has not yet increased, so the price performance is firm. Short term geopolitical waves are resurging, and the logic of pure benzene shortage is once again dominant, causing the price center to shift upward.
3、 Future expectations
The current price of aniline has risen to a high level, and the market is digesting the increase. Under high costs, the downstream market’s enthusiasm for entering the market has weakened, with rigid demand being the main factor. It is expected that there will be significant resistance to the continued rise of aniline in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in costs and demand.